80M A shares outstanding, publicly traded. 60M B shares outstanding, entirely owned by SUNE. 140M shares total outstanding.
If they want to sell their TERP shares, it needs to be privately placed, and you can be sure it will hit the news wires.
SUNE is NOT selling their TERP shares.... they can't, it's class B shares they own, but class A's are publicly traded. Even if they want to sell, they can't.
Their strategic focus has been to retain as much assets as possible. Owner vs developer/seller. They figured they can build the company quicker if they own & receive a portion of the CF's generated by the projects they develop.
Their strategy has shifted to selling more assets to 3rd parties since they have little choice given the mkt conditions for both their equity & debt. Pretty sure their TERP and GLBL will be the last thing standing.
It's the complete opposite of what the article is claiming. Yieldco assets are only about 3% of the renewable asset mkt, and the yieldco uptake rate is much less than the parents' development rate. Private mkt is still very healthy w/ assets trading at good yields... it is these buyers that don't want to see the yieldco vehicles succeed b/c they want to hold leverage when purchasing renewable assets.
Once the mkt figures out the value of diverse portfolio of renewable assets, the yieldco space will recover and the window for growth will open again.
They don't own everything outright. So for the projects they are partially invested, if they are not consolidating those entities, they can record earnings/losses under "equity in earnings of unconsolidated investees". They recorded $6.1M for that line item in Q3.
Sorry, I don't agree with that argument. IDR's (at least for TERP and GLBL) don't meaningfully kick in until much higher dividends. TERP's 2015 IDR is zero. In 2016, IDR share of CAFD is only 4% @ $1.75 DPS, and it goes up to 10% of CAFD the following year with DPS projected at $2.05.
Basic idea is that CAFD & dividend needs to go up for the IDR payment to be meaningful to the GP's. But to raise CAFD, the project drop down yield needs to be at profitable yields to its WACC. In other words, if they drop down projects into TERP at unprofitable levels, CAFD will not increase and thus IDR payments will also not increase. SUNE will succeed if TERP & GLBL succeeds.
TERP also has call rights (e.g. ROFO) with SUNE on 7.5GW worth of projects under construction, and currently operating assets waiting for drop down is 1.75GW. TERP's current holding assets are 1.88GW.
Don't take ABGB's troubles lightly. Yes ABY can find projects to bring in from outside, but it won't be at favorable prices. Finding a new pipeline if ABGB goes under won't be easy.
SUNE's stock price is turbulent, but it has shown that the markets are still open to them (preferreds recently placed @ 6.75%, healthy credit lines, strong bond prices, etc). With their 9GW+ waiting to be dropped down to TERP within the next 2 years, TERP's growth is visible for the foreseeable future. That growth should imply that TERP's stock price can sustain a lower yield.
First of all, I never said GILD would buy CNAT. Second, GS9450 is a selective caspase inhibitor while Emricasan is a pan-caspase inhibitor, not the same thing. And GS9450 showed benefit but pretty much flopped in Ph2.
Plenty of companies out there interested in an immensely large potential mkt with no FDA approved drugs. If you think CNAT wouldn't interest someone at a mere couple hundred million MC, you have blinders on.
If a GILD or REGN or ROCHE comes calling, it'll be tough to fight it. As for the buyout price, there have been cases where 100M co's have been take over for 400M (4X), but given the biotech market sentiment lately, it would surely be less.
Of course the successful completion of a registration trial would derisk the co and make it worth a lot more. However, there's a long road between then and now, including heavy spending and share issuance. Plenty of case studies where big pharma buys a co only w/ Ph2 results so you can't rule it out.
That's the way one should play, but at the money puts are expensive, around $15.
If failure is likely it wouldn't be trading at $51, it would be closer to $9. That's how probabilities work.
Trial results timeline are somewhat predictable, but there are many other types of news that can't be predicted. Like a marketing/co-development deal with a big bio/pharma which could be worth hundreds of millions (if not more) to CNAT.
Agree totally. Emricasan is safe and effective, plus it looks like it will be chronically used for many/all stages of liver disease. And it's valued @ less than $80M EV?? Even as a long shot option this should be much higher. These algos and blind shorts are just asinine.
Hold on to a core position, you never know when the company gets bought out.
LOL... so mature. Sounds like you know from personal experience. I don't see it trading anywhere near $2.50.
Sold half my 42K shares yesterday between 7.8 and 8, will hold the balance until Emricasan is approved and CNAT becomes a billion+ company.
The drug only needs to work for a specific subgroup that can be identified in order for it to be a success. That is the case here. HVPG lowered only in patients with high PH (which makes sense) and Cck18 lowered for all evaluable patients.
I was replying to readandweep. I was actually agreeing with you (Fred) that there is a disconnect, and that a possible answer is manipulation.
Read "Flash Boys", manipulation on a micro scale happens virtually every minute of every trading day. Whether there's illegal activity driving down shares of SUNE or TERP, I can't say. But I am open to the possibility that a short will do whatever it can to protect its position, including methods that might not be construed as acceptable by the majority of market players.
No one here is claiming there's some master plan to deceive. But if you think there's no manipulation on WS, that's being naive. An example is false quotes, HF algos try to influence the direction of a stock movement by creating quote movement and false opposing inventory... only to back away if a large order for their inventory shows up.
If you're just looking at the SUNE/TERP dynamic w/o considering others (ABGB/ABY, FSLR/SPWR/CAFD, etc), then you're missing the bigger picture. Disconnects happen, and that's why I was trying to convey color on the industry to get a better holistic picture. Stocks don't trade in a vacuum.
There are genuine concerns on ABGB going bankrupt, and some of their bonds are trading at 30-40% of face value. SUNE's stock might be down, but they're not going bankrupt and they are still raising capital albeit at slightly higher rates. But for some reason ABY is outperforming TERP. That's a disconnect.
Maybe the HCW analyst is trying to make a name for himself or just tired of analysts being called gutless. I've noticed a few instances where they've made bold calls b4 events, and they're not necessarily wrong.
Valuation got to ridiculously cheap levels also... only $70M in MC and $30M in EV at bottom, absolutely ridiculous considering the drug is addressing a potential multi-billion mkt with no approved drugs currently. The data thus far shows compelling evidence that the drug works as intended, and another successful Ph2 data set will prove that the positive data isn't a fluke.
I think there's more to it than that. Someone is putting constant selling pressure and it could be legitimate selling, but when you compare TERP's trading vs other yieldcos, it doesn't quite add up. No funding issues even in this mkt turmoil for both SUNE and TERP, but TERP has the highest pro-forma yield out of all its peers. Abengoa's bonds can't be placed by the big boys for 30-40 cents on the dollar (or euro), but TERP's relative performance is worse. TERP's assets are in the portfolio and already performing well at underwriting standard or better (and generating cash for distribution). Can't say that for CAFD, and NYLD cut their distribution b/c of asset under performance this year. And TERP trades at the highest pro-forma yield.
Something will give. If TERP can grow their distribution as they have forecasted even for just the next 2 years, no way the share price will stay as low as it is now. Either share price will rise or the dividend will fall. Share price will not continue to fall if the dividend increases as planned for 2016.
Means little unless some rationale exists for the model to not work. The model can easily absorb modest rise in interest rates, especially over time as utility rates rise and panel costs fall.