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Standard Pacific Corp. Message Board

sleepy.ichabod 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 24, 2015 9:51 PM Member since: Dec 10, 2006
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  • Reply to

    BUY BUY BUY

    by sfvip2319 Feb 19, 2015 8:32 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 24, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    Thanks for your reply bwisheldon.
    Strohecker did not reply my email yet. I guess she likes you better than me. :) I am quite releaved because that we will have earnings report before Mar 20.
    I will definitely read HPT report carefully but I only expect to see the rent. If you find anytthing, please let us know.
    One odd thing: we did not have any huge volume today despite the activist news. And yet price went up quite a bit anyway.

  • Reply to

    BUY BUY BUY

    by sfvip2319 Feb 19, 2015 8:32 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 24, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    bwisheldon,
    HPT will report on Feb 27 before the market opens. Why TA reports in 2nd week of March? Thanks in advance.

    icha

  • Reply to

    BUY BUY BUY

    by sfvip2319 Feb 19, 2015 8:32 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 24, 2015 1:38 AM Flag

    Delek reported. Retail segment's Fuel margin during 2014 Q4 was $0.238 per gallon compare to $0.142 during 2013 Q4. Almost 10 cents more per gallon. Murphy USA had simila fuel margin: almost 25 cents. Why TA would not have ten cents more per gallon? Wouldn't that alone add 20~30 cents more to the net income? Plus, the big gas margin seems to stay for awhile.

    My $15 calls will be in the money though I am very nervous right now. Why TA tanked? Looking at the chart and Bollinger bands, I think TA seems about to drop to the half again. What could cause such drop however?

  • Reply to

    BUY BUY BUY

    by sfvip2319 Feb 19, 2015 8:32 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 22, 2015 10:00 PM Flag

    Delek (DK) is reporting tomorrow after the market close. Interesting to see their fuel margins.

    By the way, just in case anybody bought RUSL as an oil play, I am getting out tomorrow morning. Double in two weeks is a bit ...

  • sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 14, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    It is usual that annual reports take a bit more time than QR. I would say that TA typically reports betweem late Feb and early Mar, sometimes even mid march. I really hope that they report before options expire on Mar 20. If they don't, I am screwed this time.
    Hospitality is estimated to report in the last week of February but that is yahoo estimate which never to be trusted and more often wrong than not.
    Maybe that explains the recent south west move of TA pps. The Bollinger band makes me nervous.

  • """
    * Chain restaurants recorded their strongest pace of same-store sales in six years during January at 6.1%, according to data from Black Box Intelligence.
    * An easier weather compare, $2 gas, and a more stable economic backdrop were factors.
    * Traffic was up 2.4% during the month.
    * The sales lift was delivered without much help from McDonald's which saw a marginal +0.4% comp gain.
    * Comp sales in the Midwest improved 11.2% after the region had a much easier time with weather during January than a year ago.
    * Chains with a large focus in the Midwest include Steak 'n Shake (NYSE:BH), Jimmy John's, Culvers, and Bob Evans (NASDAQ:BOBE)."""

    Sounds good to me. Low gas price, high fuel margin, the very bullish retail sector, and now this sharp increase in restaurant sales.... smell money in TA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings creaping up, will you buy, sell, hold?

    by bwisheldon Jan 29, 2015 12:18 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 6, 2015 12:38 AM Flag

    sf,
    I was quite impressed when I saw TA pps action exactly as you predicted. I have never thought for any reasons TA would go below $12.80 as you predicted. It did however brief the time it was under that price.

    I have a hypothetical question to you. Suppose TA announce more than 40 cents on Q4 report. What pps would people be willing to pay for TA?
    Another question. What if 20 cents?

    GLTA,
    ichab

  • Reply to

    Earnings creaping up, will you buy, sell, hold?

    by bwisheldon Jan 29, 2015 12:18 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 5, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    The following seems to be a common theme of energy distribution business these days. The fuel margins averated to almost a quater per gallon. That impressive.

    "Murphy USA Inc. Reports Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 Results
    El Dorado, Arkansas, February 4, 2015 – Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE: MUSA), a leading marketer of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise, announced today financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2014. Key highlights include:

    * Income from continuing operations of $98.3 million ($2.13 per diluted share) for Q4 2014 ($29.5 million or $0.63 per diluted share for Q4 2013) and $243.1 million ($5.24 per diluted share) for the full year 2014 ($156.3 million or $3.34 per diluted share for 2013)

    * Retail fuel margins averaged 24.6 cents per gallon (cpg), the highest quarterly margin since 2008, and retail fuel volumes grew by 2.7% per site for the quarter; on an annual basis retail fuel margins were 15.8 cpg and retail fuel volumes grew by 0.7% per site

    * Total merchandise gross margin dollars grew 11.3% in Q4 2014 compared to the prior year quarter and were up nearly 6.4% on an average per store month (APSM) basis for the current quarter; for the full year, total merchandise gross margin grew $19.8 million or 7.0% (2.9% on an APSM basis)

    * New stores added in the quarter totaled 24 to bring the full year count to 60 new stores "

  • Reply to

    Why TA down big today?

    by sfvip2319 Jan 30, 2015 7:58 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Feb 5, 2015 2:05 AM Flag

    I agree with bwisheldon on TA price and crude oil that sfvip. I don't think TA's profit is so directly related to crude oil as long as oil stays within a range, say between $40's and $50's.

    But just in case if one wants to hedge against a crude hike, then buy a little bit of RUSL (3X Russian market). It tends to move more than 3 times the crude price percentagewise.

  • Reply to

    Earnings creaping up, will you buy, sell, hold?

    by bwisheldon Jan 29, 2015 12:18 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Jan 29, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Cross America and CST bought convenient stores just like TA last year did. They keeps buying gas stations and distribution businesses. Gas business is on the sweet sweet spot now: higher margin and larger volume.
    See their PE's. hmmm, makes me to think....

  • Reply to

    TA is no day trader nonsense

    by dogtickpara11 Jan 29, 2015 12:57 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Jan 29, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    I am accumulating march $15 calls and selling march $12.50 calls. We will have the earnings report before options expire.

  • Reply to

    Anyone See PTRY Earnings?

    by teamonfuego Jan 29, 2015 11:28 AM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Jan 29, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    "Fuel gross profit and comparable store fuel volumes improved significantly as we benefited from our focus on fuel price management and a continued decline in fuel costs."

  • bwi, sfvip, joshua, nol, and all!
    It seems TA did very well in Q4 with low gas and good retail. I looked a bit old (Q ended Oct 31) report and they said their fuel margin went up from 15.3 cents to 19.5 cents a gallon. Toward the end of the year (Nov and Dec) it probably was even greater margin. With tax issues gone, I think the result will be super. I jsut don't have experties to make a more accurate estimate. So please help me and other readers like me.

    Thank you in advance.

    ichab

    !!!!!!!!!!! PARIS AND MIKE NEED NOT REPLY. !!!!!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    As of today, I have closed my position in TA

    by mike2915 Dec 29, 2014 10:29 AM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Jan 2, 2015 8:23 PM Flag

    mike, i guess, made a buck and half by shouting for more than a year. I remember the time when mike said buy buy buy at over $11. I sold at that time and bought back at $7 and change. I am not selling yet.
    TA is not overvalued at all. Based on the past experience argument does not apply since the who situation has changed. Oil dropped by half, super strong retail results in Nov and Dec, and people have money in their pockets not to care too much about 5 cents differences in gas prices. When is the report? Two months? QR play starts 3 months before? The change in TA pps is hardly a result of QR play. Before QR, TA will hit $14 or higher. After QR, who knows? I won't be suprised if it goes to $20.
    Oil will not go back to $100 anytime soon, and time is on TA's side.

  • Reply to

    Dumb Zack

    by sfvip2319 Nov 11, 2014 12:08 PM
    sleepy.ichabod sleepy.ichabod Dec 4, 2014 2:05 AM Flag

    $ 10.24 at closing.
    AAA forecasted over 46 mil to travel on thanks giving. Then there was a sort of nor-easter which reduced number of travelers. With this low gas prices, more people will travel by cars. With convenience store purchase, individual motorists become more important to TA's business.
    I wonder what will TA price be if it hits a break-even in 4Q which never happened normally in my memory.

SPF
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