Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

sleestack76 280 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Dec 6, 2002
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    price action since earnings.

    by jarhead19881992 Aug 29, 2015 12:33 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 14 hours ago Flag

    I hope you are right....someone definitely wants to contain. loading the ask all day then 1.6 million in the last 30 minutes. Lots of games on this stock.

  • Reply to

    price action since earnings.

    by jarhead19881992 Aug 29, 2015 12:33 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 17 hours ago Flag

    the down pressure we saw after the earnings call of almost 100 million was not all done by frustrated long but a combination of traders (short attack) and discouraged longs. the report was not bad but it was clear that as soon as mgt said they were not going to sell or breakup the company due to the constraints that attack started. In November we will know which of the tutes sold and bought per 13F filing deadline. The attack was coordinated and I do believe the shorts are slowly covering and wish to do so under 5.50. They wrote options and shorted shares. Whether it moves higher or how aggressive they become with their covering is a complete guess. Some positive news by mgt would help combat this along with more insider buying.

  • Reply to

    200k volume

    by valueinvestor411 Aug 26, 2015 4:52 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 26, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    Walmart CEO may have doubled the volume but in my opinion the MM is just trying to make an orderly market in a very thinly traded stock that has 9 million outstanding. Shares held are strong and today the MM and shorts tested the 32 area and the market rallied. My impression on a purely TA basis was that it was not a true test of the trendline or fib levels. That said at 32 the was very cheap. We might have a quick gap down by the MM to take out stops but on a valuation basis..... assuming adoption....the stock is dirt cheap. assuming the short position is constant( which it is never) I believe the shares are lent out over 4 times for every real long share. illegal....but brokers due this all the time. Any news and we could have fireworks to 50.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    new short int data out

    by byronangel Aug 25, 2015 4:07 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 26, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Major confluence at 31.....both on Fib retracements, volume, and trendlines. Should test it over the next few weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    new short int data out

    by byronangel Aug 25, 2015 4:07 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 26, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    I would add that they best to combat the volatility caused by the shorts is to receive news that either is specific about adoption (number of items) or some other large retailer buying in. Essentially delivering on results. In my opinion the adoption will take a long time but if the next quarterly results show a gradual rise in revenues along with expenses (new hires) etc. then the share price will likely take care of itself. Hold tight.....there is a tipping point coming we just don't know when.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    new short int data out

    by byronangel Aug 25, 2015 4:07 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 26, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    I did not say 100% quant driven.....but a portion of it. Don't put words in my mouth. There are various types of shorts and a test of 32 should be expected. If it continues to go lower I will buy more. Most shorts are traders and they will push as low as they can and then cover some. Rinse and repeat.

  • Reply to

    new short int data out

    by byronangel Aug 25, 2015 4:07 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 25, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    you all may be completely ignoring the fact that the increase in short interest may be 100% quant driven. they look at backward data and the quant (computer) decides to go short. that simple. I believe we also may have shares lent out multiple times over. Brokers due this all the time...so for every long the shares lent out could equal 5 times to every one long in order to collect interest.

  • Reply to

    A buyout by whom?

    by brinton_k_himmelfort Aug 25, 2015 2:11 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 25, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    so what is your specific recommendation to change the culture? We need a shakeup and bad? all the trading today was algo driven.=bogus. This stock is tracking the market.... a pairs trade.....is what is has become. I am a firm believe in Michael Porter 5 competitive forces model. How does GNW strategy compare. I see a company too fat, too unable to maneuver, too complicated, too complacent in culture to effect any change. We need an activist investor(s) plural to get the shakeup completed. I am personally reaching out to several. 3 or 4 large billion dollar activist funds could take control of ownership and take this company private. fire everyone and IPO again in 5 years and make a killing. I will accept a 12 dollar buyout.

  • Reply to

    new short int data out

    by byronangel Aug 25, 2015 4:07 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 25, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    Unless they push it down and cover some. it is Microcap so very easy to manipulate. I agree they may be digger themselves deeper....even if they short to mid twenties again. Most long shares are in very strong hands.

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 Aug 25, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    MM is probing the supply and demand right now. I added below 34 today again. Not many sellers at all here. We are currently testing the 32 price level volume bar on made on 6/23...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 Aug 25, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    There is a definite change in character in trading this am. Large bids all morning. Short traders might be covering. While I don't expect a big bump up in price I think they realize it is time to bank some profits on the recent push down. low volume steady accumulation by shorts or deep value managers.

  • Reply to

    Why are GNW insiders loading up now?

    by buythelows Aug 25, 2015 10:43 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 25, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    They need to be buying more if they believe in its future. Their compensation is high and I want to see them dipping into their own pockets significantly. Not happening yet.

  • Reply to

    options

    by jarhead19881992 Aug 25, 2015 10:31 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 25, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    we need a lot more than that to be closed out. I do like yesterdays candle....could be a reversal in process.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    ACDfoods.....he needs to buying 300,000 of shares on margin out of his own pocket. If insiders buy another 4 million shares over the next 5 months this I will feel better. Until then. I am buying but am a doubting Thomas.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dark Side of the Moon....

    by tradingadollar Aug 24, 2015 5:40 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    best....post all day!

  • Reply to

    Closed the gap and then went back red again

    by balaji_virginia Aug 24, 2015 11:39 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    shorts and HFT are trading this......plain and simple. This is one of the best values in the market in a very overvalued market. Price to cash flow and revenue is ridiculous.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    I wonder what Management is thinking now? or have they been thinking at all? :) LOL price is joke if there book is good.....if not then it might be fairly priced. company needs to go private if they are to remain in LTC. All we need is a couple of large private equity firms to buyout shares at 10 bucks. I will gladly take that now....rather than hold for 2 more years with the poor ROE's

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    Maybe Joe.....and this might be a value trap for quite some time but at 4 bucks the market is assuming that LTC is worth nothing and that mgt will erode 95% of tangible book value. If they can stabilize LTC for several quarters there is no reason this should be trading below 10 bucks. It needs to go private or spinoff but it hands are tied. There is value here but Wall Street wants proof.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    It is down from 8 bucks or over 100% during the past two months though :) at least we are showing some strength today :)

  • Reply to

    Low 4's

    by sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 9:03 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    Yep I bought another 60k shares this am.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AGO
25.26+0.50(+2.02%)Aug 31 4:00 PMEDT