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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

sleestack76 168 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 28, 2016 2:36 PM Member since: Dec 6, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Annual Letter - CEO cites "Sense of Urgency"

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 1, 2016 10:37 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 1, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    Yes....I think he might be concerned at the annual meeting. He should have stated this a year ago. Amazing the disconnect that managers can have with shareholders.

  • Reply to

    GNW

    by bookerone2000 May 3, 2016 2:12 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 May 3, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    I agree.....the probability is high for tagging 5 bucks and then period of rest.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Psychology of 3

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 21, 2016 11:06 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 21, 2016 12:14 PM Flag

    It will be hard to not beat the earnings for the last call! :) I hope they can earn adjusted CASH EPS of at least a dollar for the year. I agree.....on the actions.....we need more clarity on timeline for splitting up the company and drastic changes. we see this and the share price should start to recover. Turst is hard to earn back once it has been lost.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sure feels cheap down here

    by blinko789 May 2, 2016 10:51 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 May 2, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    they have overpromised and under-delivered...plus still losing money. I like the risk reward here...but it is now a show me stock.

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 May 4, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    CASE:
    Company earns 4% royalty rate with 90% profit margins on each per unit wholesale case(soda) which ranges from $1.10 to $1.30. PepsiCo is testing the natural sweetener (617) in Mug Root in two states and Monsanto Sol Nationwide. Potential market with just PepsiCo is 8.4 billion cases in the United States and 92 billion cases internationally. With just 45 million shares outstanding and stock trading at $2.29 the downside has been priced in and the market is ignoring the huge value of the intellectual property which is worth the current share price without any commercialization.

    Math: 8.4 billion times 1.10 per unit case =9.2 billion in revenue times 4% royalty =368 million in revenue*90% profit margins=331 million profit. Divide 331 in profit by 45 million shares outstanding and you get $7.35 in EPS. Slap a 20 multiple on this and you have a $140 stock price versus today’s trading price of $2.30. This ignores the international opportunity of 92 billion cases and other applications in Food etc. Even if they only penetrate 10% of PepsiCo potential US market it will do wonders for the stock price.

    Risks: continues to burn through cash (should have 9 more quarters of cash ….19 million plus another 8.7 million to be paid in 2016…. assuming no major launch or commercialization)…..fails to reach break-even ops in the coming quarters, dilution through new share issuance if company cannot get renewal on royalty payments or big deals to come through. Worst case you lose 2 bucks but your upside is tremendous and management sounded very positive/confident on recent conference call that two new agreements would be reached this year with PepsiCo and Firmenich. I think their chances are good that they monetize the IP in the coming quarters ahead and PepsiCo will launch Mug Root beer national and other products in the coming periods ahead.

    Stock price is down so much due to weakness in Microcaps and the fact that management overpromised and under delivered.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 Jun 22, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    New patent --9,367,770…..filed June 14th. Read slowly…and think of all the applications for this. Eliminates the need of a lot of humans taking inventory in retail stores. This kind of inventory check and balance system will not work without the barcode printed all over the packaging. So now the ecosystem is being rounded out. Faster front of store operations in addition to faster, timelier, and easier inventory management on the shelves. It makes sense……small cameras are cheap…. much cheaper than hiring 5 workers hired full time to do inventory checks on all the shelves in a massive Walmart. More labor cost savings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    3

    by vonerick1980 Apr 27, 2016 10:03 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 27, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    I agree. LTC needs to go even if it shows improvement in margins. Wall street hates this line of business. For this quarter I am hoping for stability in all their lines of business and further mention of splitting up the company. Tutes will buy if they believe LTC has stabilized and eventually will be sold or spun off....taken private etc. Crossing fingers because it has been a year and half of negativity with this stock.

  • No confirmation or denial from DMRC management yet but the above two companies are listed on the GS1 Connect conference as presenters are the DW code! --McCormick is a Food company and Merial is a subsidiary of Sanofi... a global animal health corporation....BAAAMMM! why would these companies be presenting if they were not adopting at some level. This are massive companies multi-national corporations. Also Rich Richardson is a lead presenter .....he is the chairman of the board of GS1 US......to put that is perspective.....he is the president, pope of the barcode community. Any share weakness and I will continue to add.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Asymmetrical risk reward

    by sleestack76 May 4, 2016 2:35 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 May 6, 2016 11:24 AM Flag

    SNMX has also been doing this for over 10 years so it is time to monetize the IP....... Put up or shut up.....so to speak. I think many shareholders just got tired of waiting. At 2 bucks I will gladly take the risk reward and believe by September we will have news on collaboration and roll-out of Mug Root Beer. Pepsi is most likely making sure that this enhancer 617 is safe....with no side effects...after taste etc. There would be no reason for them to collaborate...assist in development.... roll-out tests.....and then bail on the program. unless we are not being told something by mgt. I doubt this is the case. The enhancer not only saves Pepsico material cost but also provides a healthier option for consumers etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock price 1 year ago 8

    by taxseason321 Apr 19, 2016 3:22 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 19, 2016 9:06 AM Flag

    RP you are correct. They better report a much more cleaner quarterly result next week or they are out in May. Credibility is everything and current mgt lost that many months ago. Hoping for the best on the next call.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Slow and Steady Progress

    by rpschom Apr 28, 2016 6:00 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 29, 2016 5:49 AM Flag

    I agree.....hope we get a reversal in price trend and soon!

  • Reply to

    Manzanita Sol?

    by yossimesse Apr 28, 2016 4:53 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 29, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    What did they say about Manzita Sol? I have a feeling that Pepsi is going to move forward with this. This could be a 30 dollar stock and their IP is worth at least double the current price

  • Reply to

    Annual Letter - CEO cites "Sense of Urgency"

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 1, 2016 10:37 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 5, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    The premium increases will increase profits in a very simple manner. Many older non-profitable policies will be stopped because the policy holders will not and cannot pay for the increase. 2nd those that can will stay in force but the company will make much better margins. IN the end I see this line of business disappearing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 May 16, 2016 8:51 PM Flag

    www.digimarc.com/partners/customer-showcase-flower-city....a very interesting read coupled with Walmart news on forcing suppliers to use a specific type of printing (Flexo) and get rid of ink jet. flower city work with fortune 500 companies. Hmmmmmmmmmmm

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Jun 27, 2016 3:58 PM Flag

    correct on all accounts. Still a trading stock by large tutes. Some interest rate sensitivity here but not enough for a 17% haircut.

  • Reply to

    short interest up 662k??

    by mrs_schit May 24, 2016 9:09 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 May 26, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    yes....they have been pounding it anticipation of no renewals from Pepsi and Firmenich. Makes sense....if they do get the renewals they can only last another year or so before burning through their cash. This was a great short at 7 bucks when they failed to deliver on their timeline for breakeven but at 2 bucks it is a risky bet. My hunch is they cover some here.

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 May 24, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    google ...packaging Europe and Digimarc.....Nice article referencing channel partners Schawk and Saueressig.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Short # Today

    by mscle34 Apr 11, 2016 12:18 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 11, 2016 2:08 PM Flag

    Short interest is higher....slow walkdown happening to at least 22 or 17.50 IMHO. Understand that this short position might be only a 2% holding for them....so forcing a short squeeze. we have no idea the size of this bet in relation to their other assets so I think is foolish to speculate on a short squeeze. Mgt only has to get revenue by year end and reduce the cash burn rate and the shorts will go away.

  • Folks.....we should have the official launch date coming up this week for the DW code. The website of GS1 has had it on there for months but now many of our channel partners will be able to sell the barcode freeing up resources at DMRC. I have a feeling that big news is right around the corner.

  • Reply to

    thoughts on sdk

    by flashwave2000 Apr 26, 2016 10:47 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Apr 27, 2016 11:48 AM Flag

    Flash I agree on SDK but I think you short term assumptions may be too rosy. Mgt has not given us any details on this in regards to ANY numbers which in my opinion means it is still not significant. However, it does have the ability to eventually be significant! Hope we get some color today but my expectations are very low.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AGO
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