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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

sleestack76 209 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Dec 6, 2002
  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 Aug 24, 2015 9:03 AM Flag

    Never thought we would have been this low after last quarters CC. MGT is a fool if they don't retire shares at these prices. Spend 100 million at 4 bucks. damn the rating agencies.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 23, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    just analyzing the volume on Friday and price action: To many most of the shorts are quant driven funds that short based upon Price to earnings, price to sales etc and are backward looking ...not forward looking. So ON a day like Friday when the high beta names or quote "expensive" stocks should have collapsed and many did DMRC was strong and the algos the run the quant funds may have tried to short lower and realized they could not get it to collapse. In fact the buying outweighed the selling....but computers don't like this way and as a percentage of their total portfolio I imagine DMRC is much less than 1% so it does not have material impact on their performance. What we did see Friday was great relative strength on a horrid down in the markets which should have place more pressure on DMRC but it did not. Longs were scooping up shares and currently most of the shares are in very strong hands. We have already had 4 weeks or a month of downward to sideways consolidation and it is my belief that as soon as we hear additional news and adoption this will begin moving back to 49 bucks regardless of the overall market. Nothing is for sure but Friday volume and strength was very encouraging.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CFO interview

    by vonerick1980 Aug 21, 2015 3:53 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 21, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    Again.....poor mgt and strategy....period. We need to clean the house! This stock is being traded based off of the move of Treasuries too! clear as day. Big pairs trading going on in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    DMRC underperforming the market now.

    by soothsayer15 Aug 21, 2015 8:53 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 21, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    lol....great relative strength today given the bloody streets for the averages......all we need is a little news!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 21, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    This a good flush that needs to happen (SPY) I believe the next level it should hit is 195 and then 180. If those fail then 150 on the spy (S&P 500). I own a bunch of GCAP also that benefits greatly for increased volume and volatility. Should have record revenues this quarter because of all of this. Sorry for being a pumper! :) GLTA

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 21, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    I would also add that the computers appear fixated on pushing this towards 4 bucks....I will add a bunch down there if it gets that low. Use volatility to your advantage.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 21, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    I would also add that this is one of the best risk/rewards in the stock market right now. downside maybe another 2 bucks but our upside is huge. Traders will disappear after a couple of quarters of mgt proving themselves and showing improvement in LTC.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 21, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Don't expect a buyback because they would have already done it. They are capital constrained and Wall street knows it. We are a ship without sails and have been for quite some time. I am adding here. Either this goes belly up which I doubt or I will make 100% on my money over the next two years. I seriously doubt that management will destroy 85% of tangible book value which is what this is trading at now...but stranger things have happened. Lowering my cost basis.

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 Aug 20, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    I personally do not see interest going much higher at all for the next two year. The US is importing deflation with the China bubble etc. Global growth is just not happening as fast as one expects so GNW earnings on LTC will remain compressed in my opinion except for the premium increases which should help a bit. I still think the FED will raise rates just not a s fast we all expect.

  • Reply to

    Visual Shazam traction

    by flashwave2000 Aug 20, 2015 9:19 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 20, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Thank you for posting....good read and glad to see the penetration or traction that is happening.

  • Reply to

    What's happening??

    by twochiefdukee Aug 19, 2015 2:05 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 19, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Most likely was the algos that ran after the FED's minutes were released at 2pm. A lot of computer trading programs run pair trading that go both long and short multiple securities and may have prompted a quick short covering or automatic buyin.to reduce risk.

  • Reply to

    What's happening??

    by twochiefdukee Aug 19, 2015 2:05 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 19, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    We tested the 65 day MA and it was rejected. A close over 38.50 is good for longs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 19, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    I agree. there is a steady supply of shares at this level which signals to me that traders are collecting the premium looking out three months and want to contain the price below 6. There are no big buyers here. The big problem with a buyback is they don't have the cash to do so and increase leverage will reduce ratings but we need a vote of confidence by mgt and a miniscule few open market insider buy is not going to cut it.

  • Reply to

    walmart

    by seabird6100 Aug 18, 2015 3:14 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 19, 2015 8:16 AM Flag

    yet another application against theft....maybe....but putting small cameras all over the store constantly taking pictures of items and people might not be realistic or attainable from a logistics perspective. Not an expert in this area. If people put stolen items down their clothing or in their pockets it wont help at all. Still could be a big deterrent if there are sensors cameras tracking an item throughout the store as it travels until it leaves would be very helpful.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 18, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    you hit the nail on the head Richardson. The culture at GNW has been poison...Other companies have prospered when GNW has failed. Call it lack of strategy, planning, wrong products....whatever but the leadership at GNW has failed. We need a shakeup by an activist investor. Waiting another two years for LTC to repair itself it not an option.

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 Aug 17, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    I like the formation we are making. Nothing is guaranteed and using TA looking at a Microcap is dangerous but we appear to forming a "W" pattern. Just need some volume or news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Proof of Concepts

    by sleestack76 Aug 12, 2015 3:57 PM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 13, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    certainly one must expect news out of nowhere because the CEO has publicly said that new announcements would be made before the end of the year. What would be huge even more important than big Walmart news is CPG's news because it shows adoption is happening by the brands. the smart phone apps, and adoption by retailers will just be another benefit. All ends of supply chain from marketing of new products, to the end user will be impacted. Depending upon how much news we get by EOY....this stock could definitely break above 50.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sleestack76 by sleestack76 Aug 12, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    With roughly 4 months till the end of the year and several proof of concepts in the works I cant help but wonder if the overall adoption of and (True) impact of news might be delayed. The reason I state this is if Walmart is planning on a smartphone pay system to rival Apple Pay ...the implementation of DMRC technology might take longer than expected. I am not saying WMT gets rid of checkout lines immediately but such a undertaking is huge and a big paradigm shift in the way consumers shop or will shop. Having the technology that uniquely identifies a item 100% of the time and quicker than barcodes will change the competitive landscape of brick and mortar stores and consumer behavior. Very exciting stuff! I hope Bruce can give us a bit more color soon on the various applications but I am fine with just some modest labeling adoption by the CPG's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No sellers

    by sleestack76 Aug 12, 2015 9:50 AM
    sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 12, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    volume is decreasing on the pullback....doesn't mean it cant go lower but it is encouraging.

  • sleestack76 sleestack76 Aug 12, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    We can only hope and pray that mgt does something the next two years for shareholders. If I thought it was a good value at 8 bucks then 5 bucks is a steal. Not selling at a loss unless there is a big black swan event.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AGO
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