usually...a selloff like this will last three or four days due to margin calls etc. If it is bad news much longer. Alot of technical damage has been done and the company acknowledges that the 1st half is expected to be weak for retail trading due to FX stability however, I have learned to look at all the possibilities from past experience I would like to see us bounce here before getting positive on the short term returns of the stock.
30% haircut for misses expectations which were un-realistic to begin with...crazy...but that is a Microcap. very undervalued right now but I already have enough. Hope we close above 7.71 into the close. Hope is terrible investment strategy!
seller has returned. the longer we stay down here the worse it is for the momentum of the stock. We need to reverse in the next couple of days preferably today.
MBI should get a nice gain from this but unfortunately it is a one-time gain. "The primary drivers of the $162 million were the cost of commutations in excess of third quarter statutory loss reserves and changes in the interest rate assumptions that we use for estimating our economic losses, which are update annually. Please note that from GAAP reporting, these commuted policies were mark-to-market at year-end 2013 and the commutation would be a first quarter of 2014 event. All other things being equal, we'll see a pre-tax GAAP gain on insured derivatives of over $400 million in the first quarter of 2014 as a result of the commutation."
In addition, Price has been contained the past three weeks...maybe just MM hedging their book but I doubt that is all of it. I expect some big shorting over the next five days to push the prices down to 10.66 where they will cover. I hope I am wrong because I do not want to buy protection....way too expensive right now.
Unless....they report a buyout or something like that there is no way in hell this is closing above 13 bucks this week. Just my opinion. I hope I am wrong!
dont be surprised if we tag 10.60 to 10.75 area tomorrow. that is another trendline area and it appears that the option players could be gaming for that area. I hope for the opposite but I am realistic about where this can go.
yes.....it does...I would like to see a close above 7.86 today. Tutes should be going long here great risk reward and a company that is executing. Eventually the currency markets volatility will rebound and GCAP will be reporting 30 cents a share quarters. Question is when and do the tutes want to wait that long. Just because the price drops and short term expectations were not met does not mean to get rid of the company.
dell option by themselves cannot hold a price down but they can help control the price of a stock. IMHO the move to 15 bucks was orchestrated along with the selloff. the company has not grow at all and while it is not in the ER room anymore it is still in outpatient care because its book of business continues to shrink. You assume people are buying options but the smart tutes are selling them ....either naked or to against their longs to get some income and premium while they wait for the company to repair itself. It is that simple. Depending upon the news today they options sellers might do the same thing for June also unless the company gives up more exciting results or guidance. If you look at the derivative gains and losses during the past year it has really distorted the "operational" earnings of the company. I dont like waiting either but sometimes patience is what it takes with investing.
The biggest thing that I would like to see would be outlook. there are alot of longs that have been waiting a long time for the company s value to be realized and it has taken longer than expected.
we need a close above 8 bucks for me to get excited. Otherwise the 5.50 area is calling our name.
open interest has doubled in past week for Mays options expiring on Friday for 13 strike. Either a big bet or price containment. I am betting the latter. They want the premium.
would like to see it recapture the trendline at 8 bucks again. no way this should be trading at 8 bucks with FXCM is trading at 13.