" I'm glad that management turned down bargain based contract on rigs,"
That was one key point on the earnings call. Hercules has turned down more offers for contracts than they accepted, by a wide margin. He said the customers know when they are in the driver's seat, it comes through during negotiations. This year the service companies are driving and the generals know it.
210k per day times 300 working days is 60million. It is starting to add up.
He also specifically stated that using cash flow to build the business would serve the owners more than a dividend, and he implied for at least the next two years.
I have been watching HERO for two years and this month I dove in with them. It has such good alignment at this point.
It would be beautiful if Hercules could buy 10million shares at this point. A 20million net capital raise once the price gets to 7 again.
Under what circumstances could they pull this off?
Acad went from 5.xx in January 2013 to 25.xx in January of this year.
But they do not even have a revenue stream. Not a good comparable.
Pimavanserin is their play, probably no approval until mid 2015.
It is definitely a rewarded darlin. Thinking maybe shorting now would be a good move.
There is no rationale to how the market rewards and destroys.
The chart move could happen here. Sales of 125 million per quarter should make this a 1.5B market cap putting us at 15.
When sales grow quarter over quarter, then 20-25 is in reach by Jan and buyout at 40 in January 2016.
Those insiders who bought 50k shares immediately after the advisory committee said "No", will have themselves a thirty bagger on that single move alone for an end value of two million.
The market particularly rewards phamas with growing sales.
I gave up on Kronos. There is no rhyme or reason.
The worst was two years ago when they blew away the expectations and then shorts attacked it for a 40% loss.. I asked the shorts why they waited for outstanding earnings to attack the stock but their answers made no sense.
It is just an untrustworthy stock that trades with no relation to fundamentals and you can never believe their guidance.
Thanks. Your posts are almost always educational.
I think I get what you are saying.
Short houses have a lot of arrogance and will not leave an equity alone until they are profitable in the long run, just to prove to themselves that they are not idiots. Indeed, they are not idiots except in situations, just like most of us.
Now in the short hole they just manufactured it seems their only hope in profitability with their HERO project will be to help the stock rocket up and then reshort near the top and maybe recapture a buck or so on the consolidation.
Their arrogant error is usually to keep shorting at the bottom . like it is right here., and then have to do the cycle over again.
I am grateful to the short houses for the opportunities they create. How often do you get to buy such value with such outlook at a bottom? Like Stone energy last year, and LINE.
Their bashing is not all that stupid because they do it cynically. The purpose is to delay the rebound while they work on covering.
Some of them truly believe what they say and it is hard to tell. I just go with what the black box delivers.
Lost out on my feb 5calls bought just before earnings, but the July 3's hedged with very cheap 4puts should deliver with the long shares.
dan, does that count refills on a percentage of those scrips? We must add a refill multiplier, probably 2x.
I hear you. They shook me out of Alkermes last summer during Taper Tantrum.
This and SGYP are about the two best plays in pharma.
For diversity, HERO [in the oilpatch] will be a good mover once the short attack ends. Moving into strong cash flow this year after taking writedowns in 2013.
when will this crash?
I will lighten up when aanybody else does.
When you are right you do not have to rub noses in the dirt.
I am only asking for a little class. Taking I_told-you-shots does not take class.
He can answer within the post instead of reposting and adding to the morass.
Forget it, I find his posts of not much value but to report on momentum issues so I will spare myself and ignore him.
There is a shortage of news on this robust company so it was worth it for the short houses to get the delisting scare out there. It is old news and the remedy is already in.
I've done that a few times. Doing it now.
Hoping this time around I have learned how to hold my gains.
Manipulation of stocks has taken hundreds of k's from me in short term options. Expecting outstanding earnings and guidance, getting it but the stock price plummets only to recover after opex.
Now I go long and deep. The gains are not as flashy as with a big OTM score, but when I look back on what I had and if I had been more conservative, I'd have a 2000k trading account.
Look at the March 2.5's. Going for 2.30 this morning now they are refusing my bid for 2.35. The leverage is not as great but huge safety. Probably see a buck profit on it at least with a conservative move to low 6's in march. booya if higher.
I sold my Feb 2.5's on the open on monday. Did not even get intrinsic, short by .03, but nice profit. Did not want to risk any more dippage on it.
You were right that CHTP was a no-brainer to be approved, but the drug is not that great. Sales will have to drive that share price, just like here at The Zog. Nobody will buy out Chelsea either unless it begins to accelerate sales. Which does not look to be easily done without spending a lot to capture a small market.
Are you into Synergy Pharm at all? I think I will use my shares to support a bull call spread.
Chart showing good indicators, like here. Strong buyout candidate once you start to investigate their pipeline and look at Ironwood's comparable. The short houses are trying to drive it down but a hero stepped up and hits the ask in the low 5's putting the shorts in a real pickle. Soon there will be no willing sellers in the 5's and then how do the shorts cover except to replay the whole game at a higher strike?
I wish I would have listened to you during the secondary though. I held out for 10% lower and payed 20% higher.
I have done that on occasion with thinly traded options just to pad my account value. Otherwise they calculate value on lowball offers.
But yeah, one Big Boy on this board knows what's happn'n