It's a very tough decision. I did some calculations and assuming they have material sales equal to last quarter, I think they'll have a net profit of 1.5-2 million before tax. That's assuming a very good scenario for UDC, that they kept pumping materials to Samsung and that Samsung's demand never slowed.
This is also on the assumption that things like R&D, administrative fees and everything else roughly remains static (going over previous reports, they usually are). I am thinking, however, that UDC's material sales will not be as high, therefor pushing their net profit down towards a loss of ~2 million.
Really no matter what way I slice it, it's a 50/50 bet. The line between loss and profit this quarter is razor thin and there are too many variables to call it one way or another a couple million. I'm betting on red.
I will say I am very concerned of an earnings beat, because this will be the first time UDC has had two straight quarters of net profit which will cause the stock to rocket.
In any case, good luck shorts, and good luck longs.
i'm all for good news about this company but if you're gonna talk about rumours at least cite a source (other than your butt)
Something I've learned in stocks - don't listen to anyone but yourself. Do your own research (even if it's just basic level) and use forums to learn of important upcoming events in a company's near (or long term) future.
As best I can tell, the people you hear yelling "TO THE 60's AND BEYOND" or "THIS IS THE NEWEST LOW POINT, WE CANNOT GO LOWER, SELLING HERE IS THROWING YOUR MONEY AWAY" are just very bad traders or just delusional.
Don't listen to anyone telling you to sell or buy. They always have their own interest at heart and are just trying to get you on the wagon to satisfy their interests. Do some of your own research, however basic or advanced it may be, and only use forums as a place to pick up on company related news or important upcoming events that will help you make a better decision on when you should buy, sell, or hold.
Really, if I held my long position while OLED was at 37 because yelled "WE'RE GOING TO 60!!!" I'd be down thousands of dollars, instead of doubling up my profits because I knew to switch to a short position.
Forgive my ignorance but why would the government shut down have such a jarring effect on this particular stock? It doesn't effect Samsung or UDC's business in any way, does it?
So when the guidance was raised to 142-144 million, there was a strong air of confidence from management that they would be able to reach or surpass that number easily, possibly only half way through this quarter.
Their total revenue for 9 months ending in Sept. was 97.161 million. 142-144 million subtracted by 97.161 million is 44.839 to 46.839 million. UDC will be getting paid 20 million royalty from Samsung, so now UDC has to make 24.839-26.839 million. Let's ballpark 2.5 million revenue from other licensing fees and Dev tech and support revenue and now UDC has to make 22.339-24.839 million from somewhere.
During their second quarter they came out above ~15 million only due to Samsung's 20 million payment, meaning they would have been down 5 million (mostly due to a 6.5 million income tax expense). During their second quarter they were up roughly 5 million, mostly due to an extra 3 million worth of material sales, and other monetary noise that was lower cost on average and a 1 million income tax benefit.
So being generous and saying UDC makes say an additional 10 million in material sales this quarter (to a total of 40 million), they still come up short roughly 12-14 million (or even much more if they get another income tax expense).
I don't know how they plan on reaching that guidance. Galaxy S4 isn't doing as well during the latter half of this year's remainder (only 40 million by end of October, expected to be 50-60 million by year end), but the Galaxy Note 3 has been doing pretty well (5 million at the end of October). A Note 3 Lite has been confirmed for Q1 2014 but I don't know if any materials will make it into the end of year results for UDC. The Galaxy Gear sold 800k around mid-November but UDC doesn't really make too much off those, do they?
So what's left? There's a rumour that Samsung is releasing Galaxy S5 in January 2014 now, and a new Galaxy J to be released the 9th of THIS December.
I'm a little skeptical if UDC can reach their guidance...
You sound pretty bitter that you're unable to recognize a pattern. CLNEs obvious downfall based off historic data netted me 2000.
I don't know where it's going since it's sitting at 13, but once it goes to 12 -hopefully 11 - I'll load up again for a quick profit.
lmao.... you do know I go both Short and Long on this stock, right? I'm not dedicated one way or another.
If you really want to keep rubbing salt my cuts then you can bet on me being there for when it happens to you.
After all, I watched this stock go from 38 to 29 in a single quarter when everyone Long was cheering "TO 60!!!!!" and crying when they didn't sell when they should have. Let's not pretend I'm the only one who makes mistakes ;)
I wasn't aware I'm not allowed to buy back in after selling?
I'm not going to hold at 40 and watch it drop to 30. Likewise I won't miss my chance at 30 to ride it to 40. I just wanted to hear the thoughts of other people on the matter.
If you must know I very much plan to put a very large Long position in this company again. Just trying to figure out when. The LG deal is looming, after all.
Did I say I know everything about OLED? No. Did I say I'm always 100% right? No, I even admitted a pretty big mistake. Am I perfect at what I do? No.
Am I trying to get a discussion going? Yes.
You know, you longs are just as bad as the shorts in terms of attitude. You don't think, you just try to attack each other and at the end of the day you both lose money when you hope for a stroke of luck that didn't go your way.
Heaven forbid people put their heads together to draw a logical conclusion and benefit through collaboration.
Remember summer time after this hit 38 and everyone was SO confident it would go to mid-40s and blindly held on? Wasted profit. Remember when this was at 39 a week or two ago and everyone was SO confident it would go even higher for a break out? Yeah, sitting at 33 again and more lost profit.
You are actually just leaving money on the table when you don't know when to cash out or buy back in. There is zero point to hold on at 30, watch it go to 40, hold, and watch it go back down to 30. I believe in the future of this company too but the ultimate goal for everyone in the stock market is to make the largest profit possible.
Everyone in this thread needs to seriously calm down. I asked a pretty valid question and everyone starts jumping down my and everyone else's throats.
@armynutcase - Not helpful.
@Skimer - I sold at 37 already.
@druscilianai - "Quarterly #$%$ tactic"? What does that even mean?
@krimi58 - Yes that was my post and my decision but realistically I actually wasn't off by very much. "Really no matter what way I slice it, it's a 50/50 bet. The line between loss and profit this quarter is razor thin and there are too many variables to call it one way or another a couple million."
That's exactly what happened, I just chose the wrong side of the fence to be on. No one knew that they would sell +4 more million in material sales, or that they'd have 1 million less in miscellaneous expense reductions.
All I've done is ask a legitimate question and more than half the responses are emotional responses best suited for high-schoolers.
hate to break it to you buddy but look at the history. biggar920 is 100% right. every time there is a huge pop, you MIGHT get one more day of a couple more +%'s, then it tanks and tanks hard.
im not a billionaire but riding these up and down waves are easy with ACUR. ive made some decent scratch.
"rumours" that you made up? source? i can't find anything on the internet of any rumours.
If the buyout, which by all accounts looks flimsy at best, is at 9 dollars... why are people still buying in to this stock at ~$8.50?
- If you short the stock and the deal doesn't go through, the stock will probably get cut in half and continue to free fall from there. You lose almost everything if you're long.
- If the deal does go through, you make a very very tiny profit if you're long. If you're short, you lose very very little (and if you shorted above 9, you're safe no matter what).
So why are there people who think that small profit is worth the risk of massive losses ? Why do so many people think there is going to be a bidding war? And why do some people think this stock should go for 20+ dollars for the next offer when the current bid is only 9 dollars? Why would another company would offer such a high premium, after the only offer BBRY could get was from a former owner after a year of looking for other bidders?
No company wants BBRY, yet some of the longs seem to think a corporate giant is going to hop out of left field and buy for more than twice the current bid?
I covered HALF my position before the earnings, so I still lost money. I should have trusted myself instead of banking on bad news.
Ah well. I never put up any money I'm not prepared to lose... doesn't mean I won't earn it back though ;)
Uhh... I don't spam message boards all day. I lurk and sometimes post.
And I shorted 20K DOLLARS, then covered 10K before the earnings, so I'm not down all that much.
I don't really get hyper emotional like you seem to get, so it doesn't bother me. I admit I made a mistake and I should have went long 20K but overall it doesn't matter. So I lost a few grand, big whoop. I got a couple options to make it all back in the coming days and this isn't the only stock I trade with. The other stock I was invested in went the direction I wanted so I'm actually even for the day.
I basically require one dip in price so I can load up long and get back on the train for a few days before OLED inevitably levels out again.
Lol... honestly, my gut is telling me I'm wrong and that I should switch to long before earnings.
After this earnings I'm going to be holding a very large long position since I know the future of this company is really good, so in the long run even if I lose out today I will recover easy. I'm taking a risk to capitalize on a large kneejerk market reaction to a relatively small net loss (as history indicates) and I'm prepared to be burned if the earnings come out positive.