Here...since a lot of you can't be bothered to read...(you're welcome)...
Until November 13, 2014, Fairfax agreed that neither it nor its affiliates would acquire beneficial ownership of any Common Shares or securities convertible into, or exchangeable or exercisable for, Common Shares if, following any such acquisition, Fairfax and its affiliates would, in the aggregate, beneficially own more than 19.9% of the outstanding Common Shares.
Until November 13, 2014, Fairfax and its affiliates agreed not to transfer any Common Shares or securities convertible into, or exchangeable or exercisable for, Common Shares, if after such transfer, Fairfax and its affiliates would, in the
aggregate, own less than 9.9% of the outstanding Common Shares (assuming, for this purpose, the conversion into, or exchange or exercise for, all securities beneficially owned by Fairfax and its affiliates and their joint actors that are convertible into, or exchangeable or exercisable for, Common Shares).
Why do you keep arguing with yourself?
If you believe all those bad things are going to happen - then close your position.
If not, leave it open.
Either way, stop posting about it already. Enough.
You aren't "exploring" anything. It's called trolling for attention.
Honestly, you're dumb as a rock. Welcome to my ignore list.
Your opinions on valuation are not based in reality. The only variable you mention that can actually be verified is the net cash. You and I have no idea what it currently is, so your $6 figure is total speculation. They have not recevied any money from the debentures yet, so your figure doesn't make sense. Cash is probably closer to $3.50/share - with the tax refund coming not long from now, so add another $1 to be conservative. Don't bother including the debs because you just have to subtract them from the other side of the balance sheet. It's a wash. When BBRY reports, we will know for sure what the cash balance was as of a certain date, and more importantly hopefully we get some guidance in terms of cash.
You really think you are in a position to appraise the value of their real estate? heheheh. $8/share? Sounds way too high to me. To be sure, the real estate *IS* worth something. But the value is difficult to predict until and unless they actually sell it - which they aren't doing for the time being anyway - so it really doesn't matter.
I'm not saying that BBRY isn't worth more than $6.50. I believe it is. And I agree with you that $3 is not happening anytime soon. But when you prop up your argument with things like "BBM worth $3/share" you do yourself a disservice. In your mind it could be worth $3/share but it doesn't matter. Nobody is going to pay for it. Reality: it is worth ZERO (at least until and unless they actually DO monetize it one day).
I'm net long, so we're on the same side, but try to keep it real.
Are you trolling intentionally? You keep saying the same thing over and over again for no reason.
What's the point of posting this nonsense ad nauseum while ignoring what others have told you?
Reminds me of some of the idiots who post on crackberry.
You're seriously worried about $3 Jan/14 puts? lol.
And if you really are that concerned, why wouldn't you just close them? You made money on them. You said you wrote them for .35, so just close them and stop whining. Yeesh. You're acting like you have a dilemma when you have none.
Are you really that hungry for attention? Get a dog or something.
Honestly. I'm trying hard not to call you a moron. Grow up.
You really aren't understanding what you are writing about. Not sure why you are posting this line of thought?
It's really so simple. The small amount of money that FFH would gain on their $250MM debentures by a BBRY bankruptcy would not even be close to offset by the very large loss they would suffer on the common shares.
FFH is the LARGEST shareholder. If you think they want anything but BBRY to stage a turnaround, get the SP above $10, and gain a much larger stake in the company, you are simply not seeing reality.
The only alternate line of reasoning is that PW is secretly shorting BBRY offshore and wants the company to fail. But if that were the case, then he would NOT have organized a billion dollars for BBRY - because that can only help them mount a comeback. Get it?
Too many paranoid conspiracy theories written on these and other boards. It's very clear what's going on. Nothing sinister. He couldn't get the financing, ML's consortium was too slow, and the BOD wasn't willing to break the company up (yet). So PW did exactly the right thing: a new CEO and a billion dollars to pad the coffers. A turnaround is the goal. It's his only chance.
The shorts are betting BBRY is going bye-bye. The longs are betting that BBRY will turn things around. A year from now - we'll see who was right.
In 2012, BBRY was trading in the $6's. I was long. Got out around $10 on the pump. It went to $18. That pump 'n' dump was based on the BB10 release. It was obvious. I told shorts at that time to close around $6/$7 and to short after the BB10 hype died down. Should have followed my own advice! lol.
This time, it won't be that easy. The SP needs a catalyst to recover. Aside from a bonafide turnaround, I don't see what hype could move the SP back into the $8's.
Oh, one other thing I wanted to point out to you. There is a very strong possibility of bbry pre-announcing, so whatever it is you plan on doing, bear in mind that the timing of it should not necessarily be based on the December cc. You may have up to a month less time.
You're taking a number of different facts and information, and mixing them in odd ways, thus reaching erroneous conclusions. Someone once said "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing". Be careful with that.
You seem very afraid and anxious about your position. Try not to let that cloud your judgment.
1. It is understandable to assume December will be a bloodbath. Trying to get the tax recovery early from revenue Canada, as well as a billion dollar debenture deal, indicates they are burning cash at a very high rate. So that is the expectation. If the reality isn't that bad,the stock won't go lower. Keep in mind these cash burns are one time events: layoff of 4500 and manufacturer commitments. Once they get over that hump, cash burn will be minimal. Plus, a billion write off of inventory means any sell through will be booked as pure profit and positive for cash.
2. In what way do you imagine the billion debs set up ffh for a bbry bankruptcy. That makes zero sense. They lend $250 million, they get back $250 million. The common shares get crushed and become worthless. Ffh loses a bundle. You think ffh is lending the money just for the fun of it? No. They are doing it in order to support their equity investment. Unless you believe that ffh has a secret offshore account where they are actually short bbry instead of net long? But as crazy as that sounds, if it were true, then the last thing that pw would do is HELP bbry by getting them another billion dollars!
This was a good call, xujincai. One of the very few intelligent posts on this board as well.
I thought PW was going to go ahead at $9. I was wrong. I was hedged, but took off the hedges today.
As I posted this morning, longs who were upset that PW was going to steal the company, should now be happy. They are willing to take the risk and see what happens. I'm not one of those people, btw, (though I will be holding a certain amount of shares medium-term), but I think this is at least fair to longs who bought in at higher prices. They took the risk - let them either reap the rewards or pay the price. There was never a good reason to take this company private.
What's sad is that the Monday morning in pre-market, before the PW LOI was announced, but after the horrible Friday pre-announcement, the SP was around $8.15. Had they never gone through this stupid process, I believe the SP would be around $8 (instead of $6.50). Maybe higher, given the xBBM launch and a few other positives.
Lastly, I guess the BOD thought it was a good idea to do the $1 billion convertibles, but as we see, it had zero impact on holding the SP up. BBRY does not need that money, and it is a waste of $60MM/year interest. If they would ever really need that money, at that time it would make sense to borrow. Why borrow NOW? It's not like they are going to burn through billions in the next two quarters. One (frightening?) thought that came to mind is that perhaps they borrowed the billion because they are planning on making a major acquisition?
Well, now it's showtime. Give them 6 months to a year to start to see results. Shuffling numbers around quarter after quarter won't do it. They need to show GROWTH and PROFITABILITY in one or more niches. Every single metric has been declining for far too long. Any reversal of that - or new area - will do the trick. Either they can turn this thing around or it is toast. I hope they succeed.
...will now get a chance to see their investment through.
Bottom line: nobody wanted to pay a high enough price.
Well-financed...good. It's not that they need the money anytime soon. It's a message to the markets that they aren't going anywhere. And the only way it gets diluted is if the SP $10. I think it's unnecessary. It's as if the BOD had to come up with "something/anything".
Now they will have the opportunity to implement a turnaround PUBLICLY rather than privately.
Will they be able to pull it off? Probably not. lol. But we shall see...
I'm fully hedged w/ puts and will wait and watch to see how many (if any) shares I keep.
" The discussion which I was hoping to start from the beginning was whether Prem is the type of person who would be interested in being a minority partner in another consortium bid to take bbry private"
OK. Fair enough. Here are my thoughts on the issue you raised:
While I think PW would very much like to be involved in a privatization as a minority partner *IF* he can't get BBRY for himself...I don't think the others would want him. Why would they? Take into account what I wrote in my previous post, i.e. that FFH *MUST* agree to another board-approved bid. Therefore, the only reason to offer him a piece of "newco" would be if they absolutely needed him to roll his 10%. While it is rumoured that PW and ML are "friends", it seems obvious that BOTH of these men want control - and that is not possible. Hence they went their separate ways.
So...while he isn't really the type of guy to want to be in a minority position, surely it's preferable to being bought out for a price of $13, for example. OTOH, if (against what most people think), a bid comes that is substantially higher - and closer to PW's b/e - then there's no reason for him to be involved further. Regardless, unless absolutely necessary, he won't get that chance IF another bidder emerges. The last thing any of the other "bidding groups" wants is a gorilla like PW to deal with. If any of the other groups turn out to actually make an offer, those are not the kind of players who a) need PW's shares rolled, and b) would want to share with others the future spoils of BBRY.
Thank you. I didn't realize you bumped my post. I thought that someone had signed up a clone alias. Oops. Should have read the post first. hahahahah. I actually *DID* write that.
Yep. It's so sad. Management, the BOD, the CEOs, They've all let the shareholders down. They have no honour. No ethics. Selfish, greedy, corrupt #$%$
Since I made that post, one thing is for sure, they have ironed out all the bugs in the Z10 and my opinion of it has gone way up. 10.2 is fantastic. My only complaint is STILL the Link software not allowing me to be more selective. It would be much better if we could just backup ourselves w/o BB's proprietary backup encryption/format.
Here's my current prediction: This is going to drag out far longer than most think. Even when you think it's over - it's not over. Remember BCE? Hello. The Canadian people...well, we are a funny bunch. Most of the time Canadians are sheep and will acquiesce (look it up morons). But you mess with us in the wrong way... and then it gets ugly.
I believe I speak for most shareholders when I say that they would rather lose 100% of their investment in BBRY than see that arrogant fat #$%$ Prem Watsa get the company at $9. Whether it makes sense or not, whether it is wise or not, I believe that I am right about this. The BOD should be hanging from lamp poles as far as I am concerned. They sit there and collect incredible fees and benefits for doing NOTHING. Actually, worse than nothing. The one thing they could have done to save this company woudl have been to hire a decent CEO. Instead, they hire a PHUKKKING GUY WHO CAN'T EVEN SPEAK ENGLISH PROPERLY!!!! Whaaaaat??? And a $55 million parachute? Are you kidding me?
The average shareholder wants to see: 1) new management, 2) new BOD, 3) a restructured and focused BBRY. There is no reason to take this company private. None. It is thievery. Period. The reasons given are pure nonsense. Shareholders have the right to take the risk and see it through.
Oh look . I have attracted a troll. How clever you are! Wow! You have fooled everyone.
Shorts must be petrified at this point. Friday they were frantic. Now? Just pathetic. Carry on, doppelganger. You amuse...
You didn't offend me. Didn't mean to be condescending either. My sincere apologies for being too rough on you. You're just naive - which is a far cry better than the large number of despicable people on this board (which is the reason I rarely bother to post anymore). I misdirected my anger and for that I apologize.
Let's move on....
Let me explain it to you. If Blackberry enters into another transaction with another bidder, Fairfax ***HAS TO*** throw in their 10%. Got it? They have no choice. They cannot fight it. That is one of the most important parts of the LOI! Why? Because it prevents FFH from attempting to stop a bid that is slightly higher than theirs (which would mean a loss for Prem even with his $3 gift). And that my dear boy is the reason the BOD gave him the $150MM gift! Few realize this. Because otherwise, let's say ML/DF et al offer $9.50, PW could have rallied enough votes against it because it really isn't in FFH's best interest. Understand? PW needs to take it private in order to have a chance at breaking even on the trade. So PW figured, well, worst case if we get $12 (a matching $9 + $3 fee), we would swallow the relatively small loss (as a percentage of FFH's overall portfolio). The reality is IF another bid emerges, it'll probably give FFH $13 app. So Prem said "Fine!", either we take it for $9, or you find someone else, and we wont' fight you, and we'll take the $13 app.
"Those negative reports might actually be scaring away other potential bidders. "
This is the real world. The big leagues. Not Yahoo poster world. People who manage many billions of dollars don't react to blogger stories in the WSJ. Potential bidders are not being "scared away" by anything but BBRY's books and numbers.
As I have said in a previous post, don't be surprised if we don't hear anything on Monday. I would expect news before Tuesday's open.
But remember - that deadline isn't really a deadline at all. It is merely the end of the FFH DD period. They do not HAVE TO have a definitive agreement in place by the deadline. Also, it can be extended, and I have seen extension more often than not.
We'll know what's what within a short while.