Unless pressure is put on the board and Prem has to raise his price, moron. Google it.
Which is exactly what happened with DELL.
Well, I posted a few weeks ago that the insiders were trying to steal the company, but $9 is absolutely CRIMINAL. I figured $11. Tank the stock on a Friday afternoon and announce this nonsense on the following Monday? Put these SOBs in prison where they belong. So they settled on $9 last week while the stock was trading in the $10's??? Imagine how THAT would have looked.
I need $10. Probably won't get it. $9 is the worst price for me. My hedges are worthless, my shares are under water, and the calls prices have collapsed too. Thanks BBRY.
"as they don't know if the company will be around much longer to support devices." While I'm not surprised, it's pretty stupid. No matter what happens, BBRY - in one form or another - will be around to support their products for a few years at least. Long after today's technology has become old again.
As for the rest of what you said, I agree. Especially with the last part: "Don't make risky bets with retirement or family money". NEVER do that. It's just not worth it.
I got caught off-guard with a long trade Friday. Luckily, I'm hedged w/ puts, but it'll still be a small loss unless they float a "so-and-so making bid" rumour.
The thing about BBRY that I rarely see mentioned, is this: Can someone please name ONE market sector, that is profitable, where they are experiencing growth. Just one? EVen in the corporate world, they are getting their heads handed to them. Too little, too late is often used to describe them missing the display smartphone revolution. But it applies to every aspect of their business as well. Horribly mismanaged company. They just can't compete.
The write-down was done to make the company more attractive to potential buyers. Not exactly rocket science.
The word is d-e-s-c-e-n-t. Thank you for your absolutely, completely, and totally irrelevant post.
It's the timing that should tell you what's going on. The reason NOW instead of later, is because any buyer wants to acquire the company with these things already accounted for. Putting lipstick on the pig. Between the layoffs, the inventory writedown, and the falling share price...BBRY just got much more attractive *IF* there is anyone interested.
The truth of the matter is that BBRY had a b/e quarter. For all the screaming headlines of doom, they actually sold more BB10 phones than in Q1. Still a relatively small number, but not horrible. They changed the way they are accounting for handset revenue. They overstated in Q1.
The inventory debacle is fully TH's fault and he should be canned for so mismanaging. Some of that inventory writeoff is not finished goods but obligations to suppliers they may not make good on. Shame on them! This is a repeat of the Playbook and it is totally unacceptable. Seems like the only people on the planet who don't know what is going on with Blackberry and their markets is Blackberry themselves!!! What are they drinking in Waterloo?
The two moves (massive inventory writeoff and 40% workforce cut) certainly is exactly what you do when you want to get taken over. Will there be any bidders? Who knows. Unlikely. Unless PW and/or ML step up, I just don't see it happening.
Watch the cash. That's all that matters now.
Good post except for one sentence. "This company will be bought, but for $5-6, not a penny more.". That's just silly. The simple truth is that you have absolutely no idea if BBRY a) will be sold, and b) if they are lucky enough to find a sucker, er, buyer, what price the fool might be willing to pay for all or some of it. Might be $3. Might be $12. Nobody knows. Does anyone really want or need those patents? All sorts of speculation of their value. Doesn't matter. Is someone willing to step up and pay BILLIONS for them? We shall see. Otherwise, they are worthless. But given the history of these absolute morons (BOD and executives), they'll mess up any potential sale, and it'll just slowly fade away into oblivion.
Aside from Prem and the insiders,who would want to get involved with this mess. Why would they? Makes no sense. Who in their right mind is going to want to step in and compete with Google/Samsung and Apple and Microsoft? Nobody. And why would any of those three spend billions of dollars throwing BBRY a lifeline when they know they can bleed them to death over time for free? They won't. The pieces of BBRY need to go together. e.g. How do they just become a software and services company without the patents? Is that realistic? The only exception is the patents. I could see where someone might want JUST the patents - but then that means the rest of BBRY is done completely. Catch 22. In the end, they've got cash and patents (and maybe some RE) versus shutdown liabilities, etc. Not much left for shareholders.
This is why I don't see them being able to sell it off in pieces. If they want to make a go of it, they must keep all the pieces, while narrowing the focus. I think they've run into the same problem as they did with the handsets: too little, too late.
To reduce the future liability of a prospective buyer. The amount most likely does not only include physical inventory. Probably a write-down of FUTURE OBLIGATIONS to suppliers.
They are manipulating their books and letting go of 40% of their workforce. Why? Obviously to entice buyers. Duh. Will it help? I don't know. Can Watsa get a group together? Well, at the right price, BBRY has value. Knock the stock price down and it gets easier to sell and easier to JUSTIFY (legally) a lowball offer. I told you guys. They are going to steal the company back a la Michael Dell. They'll then sell off some pieces, focus on creating value, make their money back and a nice return, and then go public again under a different name. Blackberry is dead. But the controlling shareholders know there is money to be made in a different form.
Don't plan your next move according to your previous outcome. Very bad way to look at it. If you weren't in the stock at all, and this was a new potential position, would Monday be the day you would sell puts (or do covered calls)? Be honest. You're just trying to avoid taking a loss. Would you go long BBRY on Monday? Selling calls against your long is the same thing LESS the premium collected.
Rebound? The only way this rebounds is if a rumour of takeover or j/v comes out or if TH says something about prospective buyers on Friday's c/c. Wouldn't count on it. Otherwise, where will the buying come from? Shorts are now convinced they are going to ride this thing far lower. They have no incentive to cover. A lot of longs will just get out for good. New longs will be scarce. The ONLY reason to be long BBRY now is if you think they will restructure, be bought, etc. Not a great proposition.
Having a good product does not necessarily equate to a good company and/or a well-performing stock. Very dangerous to tie those things together. I have a Z10. Like it very much. It's not perfect, there are pros and cons to each phone/ecosystem. But my liking the Z10 and BB10 in no way enters into the trading/investing thought process.
You don't seem to understand that BBRY lost mindspace and cannot get it back. Period. Once you lose the mindspace, you're done. Walk into any phone kiosk in the USA - and the kids don't even know that Blackberry is still in business. Like it or not - that's what counts.
Bottom line: This company has been horribly managed for a very long time. The truth is that they were *NEVER* a well-run company. They were just lucky to have had the right product at the right time. It's a great lesson in business. Not just the mistakes mgmt made. Those are obvious. But how important great managers are to the success of a business. Great managers can turn a company around, take a mediocre company and turn it into a very successful one, etc. Poor managers can kill a golden goose, as we see with BBRY. What a stunning collapse of a company in such a short period of time.
Gee, I'm glad I hedged my new long position with puts! Terrible timing on my part, but I can probably manage my way out of it for a b/e or close to it. Oh well. RIM was good to me over the years, so I have no complaints. One of my "luckier" stocks (long and short). I'm not surprised by the layoffs or losses, but releasing the info exactly a week before earnings - on a FRIDAY (opex) - was devastating timing. Either pre-announce a good deal of time before scheduled earnings release OR wait till the scheduled date. Don't do it ONE freakin' week before! Such a bunch of fukkkkkkkkkups.