Funds are dumping AAPL because overall mkt is up but their return not good because of AAPL, so they are pruning their portfolios. AAPL is clearly cheap in terms of valuation, but fear remains if AAPL has become RIMM because of lack of innovation. In high-tech, you can't keep growing if you don't announce something new every 2-3 months - AAPL has not announced anything significant for a while and that is hugely BOTHERSOME. AAPL has confidence deficit - people are worried if their investment could go straight to zero if AAPL doesn't innovate. Cox has not done a good job in producing new things quicker - may be he was a good candidate to be COO but not CEO - he lacks vision of Jobs. AAPL better announce something new SOOOON.
Mkt going up with low volume without euphoria and therefore not yet near peak. Europe first time had higher auto sales which is a very good indicator going forward. Low Yen benefiting Japan. It would be mistake to assume that growth had its best days. DJ could hit 16,000 before we see a 1,000 point correction. PE is not excessive, so bull run could continue for a couple of years and DJ hit 18,000+. (Read article by doing Google search for Moondra Post). As to BAC, need to bring down cost-structure more. Clearly, their margins are no where near what they used to be, so need to cut costs (reduce headcount more). I am disappointed at slow pace of BAC improvements even though economy has recovered nicely from 2009 bottom. In hindsight, BAC could have been managed better - may be someone more aggressive than Moynihan is what BAC needed. It's hard to think that this stock once used to be in 50's.
CE needs to continue to: (1) Reduce debt (2) Increase dividend, and (3) Remove unqualified and incompetent managers. CE needs new blood with more aggressive management style. For now, CE needs a catalyst to move it up - stock is stuck at 49 at FPE of under 10 at a time when S&P500 is at 15, at a 50% discount. Some discount is reasonable given highly leveraged balance sheet, but 50% discount is too much. At FPE of 12, stock would be over 62. CEO should give interviews on CNBC or Bloomberg and talk about positive things about the company. As Europe and Asia recovers going into 2014, CE could be well positioned. CE could also retire some more debt. Any good news RIGHT NOW would give a boost and push the stock over 50 and after 2Q13 earning report (CEO must make sure it's damn good and announce another increase in dividend) push it over 60.
Recent London Whale, LIBOR scandal, and energy manipulation news show that JPM has become too big and can't be managed effectively. It shouuld be broken up into Investment Banking, Commercial Banking, and Retail Banking. The smaller parts would be easy to manage and grow faster. Current JPM is too big for efficient and effective management. Piece parts would be worth at least $65.
C has far flung units and hard to manage. Split the company into nimble companies that could be managed better and grow faster. The piece parts could be worth more than $58.
BAC has become too big and it should be broken up. It's hard to manage such a big and diverse organization. Piece parts would be worth a lot more than the current BAC. BAC could spin off Merrill-Lynch and Countrywide and then split the remaining into two: Commercial banking and retail banking. The sum of parts could be worth at least $18 or 50% more than the current valuation.
JPM seems to have a pattern of criminal behavior - it's big and powerful, so Dimon thinks he can get away. Government ends up giving a slap on wrist which will have zero effect on modifying behavior, Government needs to stronger actions such as jailing Dimon, seizing parts of banks that are engaged in criminal behavior, or order the break-up, Unless we do this, we are headed to financial collapse much bigger than 2008-09.
Banks are much bigger than they were at the height of financial crisis four years ago. JPM keeps getting caught doing stupid and illegal things. That makes you wonder if banks have become way too big to be managed effectively. It's in shareholder's interest that big banks (JPM, BAC, C, GS) break themselves up - the piece parts would grow faster and could be managed better and as such would be valued at higher price. The current size of banks is just a ticking bomb which will bring down the entire system and economy. Banks must split on their own rather than be forced by the government.
Banks have become bigger than at the trime of 2008 crisis, Big banks can't be managed well. It's in shareholder's interest to demand that BAC and other major banks be split. There is no future for BIG banks other than more scandals, more London Whales, and more bank troubles.
AAPL did several things good - actions on div/buyback, beating analyst est on rev and EPS. What Cook needs to do now is be more demanding and produce new products sooner rather than later. He is way too layback and that makes me doubt if he is the right person to lead. A tech company survives on innovation and new features/products - they need to announce something new every other month, otherwise a tech company can't flourish. Cook doesn't seem to have that kind of dynamic personality. Changing screen sizes and making small improvements are not real innovations - Cook said they will not announce anything new before September - that's a problem. That thing bothers me the most - AAPL should hire someone who speeds up the product cycle.
Overall, good report. Exceeded analyst est for iPhone and iPad shipments. Div/buyback will help the stock price. their lower 2Q13 guidance means no new produ cts in 2Q13. I have a feeling 2H13 would be very strong because they will announce some new products in 2H13. All of this means, stock got hammered by 300 points very unreasonably and therefore a good entry point. I predict AAPL will bounce back to 700 range by the end of year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Verizon said that they sold record 4 mi iPhones. Just taking that as a datapoint, I would argue that expectations are so low (already factored in a 300 point decline) that AAPL might just surprise and do better than the worst expected and getting this bad news out of the way could itself be a plus (in this case, buy on the news syndrome) - as such could get a bounce and stampede among short sellers. So it's not inconceivable that AAPL could hit $500 before the week is over. ER report could be combined with other things such as div increase or buyback or some encouraging word on new product category.
Be mindful that big players may have brought it down intentionally as a set up to have a huge upside and thus make money on options - they know how to manipulate small investors and make money at their expense.
AA has no future without extensive restructuring and a new management team.
Market at record high but AA down to the lowest levels - that's not stellar performance. This CEO made wrong forecasts year after year and rather than reducing cost structure and that's why there is a such dismal performance. The simple fact is AA was mismanaged.
1. Fire CEO and CFO immediately.
2. Reorganize the company, pruning out businesses that don't offer growth opportunities.
3. Bring down cost-structure - cut salaries and benefits, modernize plants by automation.
4. Sell some of the assets that don't make strategic sense and use that money to reduce debt and do some buyback/increase dividend.
5. Explore strategic alternatives including an outright sale of the company.
You can't win with this stock, can you? May be the market is looking for actions and not words. Cook said they are seriously looking at div/buyback but then nothing happens for months - it's rather simple decision, so why it's taking so long? One theory is that 1Q13 will be worse than expected so they will combine div/buyback announcement with 1Q13 report to prevent a huge crash. The other theory is that most of the cash is outside the U.S., so accountants are busy with figuring out how to do this without a huge tax bite. On new product/innovation, the same situation - lack of info means pure speculation and rumors, mostly unhelpful. In the past, AAPL always delivered more than they promised and that made people tolerate AAPL's arrogance. But lately, it's not the same so people have less tolerance for arrogance. Cook needs to give more info about new products/innovation (w/o divulging too much to competitors) than in the past and stop dismissing stock price decline because stock decline is a reflection of investor unhappiness over how the company and management are performing.
DJIA at record high, up from 2009 bottom of 6,500. AA near low's down from 50. Economy has recovered but AA stock continues to languish and yet AA Board has not fired CEO. AA should have gotten out from business segments that are proving to be difficult to make money, closed down plants more aggressively to bring down cost-structure. You don't wait for years hoping things will get better.
The real competence of a CEO is measured if he has a good sense of the market and down-size accordingly. This CEO made wrong assumptions, year after year, and here we are down from 50 to 8. AA needs a new visionary person in charge.