I agree - NFLX has no fundamental basis to go up so much. To justify a FPE of 200, they would have to earn at least $30 per share in 5 years and there is no chance they will make that kind of money. AMZN and APPL are already proving to be worthy competitors and there is going to be a lot of churn among NFLX subscribers whose growth has already slowed as evident from 1Q15 report. NFLX is not worth more than 275 (and even that is very generous). In the end, that's where NFLX will settle down to.
This is the kind of euphoria often leads to free fall. The US subscription growth rate is declining and producing/buying content is very expensive - will need billions to spend via issuing new shares causing may be 25% dilution - so by no means it's risk-free, as you suggest. Everything has a limit.
NFLX has gone up 100% since December. Now that authorized shares are upped, will issue new shares to raise billions to pay for expensive new content bought/produced which may cause 12-25% dilution depending on how much money is raised. Stock split may come later, but first they need capital to pay off their massive debt. The US subscription growth rate is declining (which caused stock slide last year to $300) and that is not going to change - looking at growth overseas but margins are very thin. At FPE of 190-200 with massive dilution ahead, stock is vulnerable, as Cramer noted the stock could slide to 500 range. It will be interesting to see how big MMs play all this.
12-25% dilution means stock price would have to come down by 100 to 160 points to 490 - 550 range to maintain the FPE at the current level of 190 to 200.
If they decide to sell newly printed shares to raise capital of say $10 bi, at 650 a piece, they will have to issue 15 mi shares which will cause 25% dilution. One could argue that the stock price would have to decline by roughly 160 points to maintain the present FPE of 190. That's massive dilution. If they raise only $5 bi then still stock would have to decline by 80 points. They definitely need to raise a lot of cash in hurry because the U.S. subscription growth rate is declining and they have to spend lots of money to enter new markets overseas. I don't think they will do any stock splits until their need to raise billions is first tackled. Cramer says stock is going down to $500 - although many people don't pay attention to what Cramervsays but this time my rough calculations indicate that he could be right.
NFLX has been involved in buying/creating original content which is very expensive and they need billions to pay the bills and spend on new shows. So their first task would be to issue new shares at inflated record price and mint billions of dollars. Stock split may also come but that's not the priority for them because issuing new shares will cause massive dilution and that will shoot PE to extremely high level which could bring stock price down. I think management will first issue new shares and raise billions of dollars and then see what dilution does to stock price - if stock price comes down a lot, they might not split the stock at all. Besides, small float let NNs play it as a momentum stock. It would be interesting to see how analysts will try to paint a bullish view even of dilution. It's hard to predict what will happen now - NFLX is almost doubled from December which is huge appreciation in the face of declining growth of subscription in the US market and now FPE is around 190.
A bigger float after stock split would make it harder for NFLX behave like a momentum stock and much harder to manipulate. I think the management's interest in having more authorized shares is more to sell new stock at inflated price and have more cash in hand to spend or pay the bills. They could also be used for stock compensation. Regardless of what they do, there will be dilution of existing shares and that will inflate the PE ratio even more.
NFLX is set for authorization to increase number of shares and that means they will sale new shares to raise capital which they need badly to pay for their out-of-control spending. Stock dilution means FPE of 185 would zoom up to out-of-this-world range and put pressure on stock price. Take your profits and run!
Was right on two counts - up in pre-market, but then decline. If it goes down 50 points in the next few days, I will be proven right on the third count.
NFLX has been manipulated by some big players with the help of analysts and now comes the time when they go for the kill. Too bad, some retail investors would get hurt. This stock is not worth more than 300.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"real Future" - over-hyped positives but negatives are all ignored. I haven't seen an honest analysis. All this nonsense about super growth in subscription or can increase monthly fee to whatever they want don't reflect the reality about declining viewership or competition. "House of Cards" success is being extrapolated as if every show they produce will be a success - creating original content is not a new business and everybody knows there are no guarantees - for every new hit shows may be there are 3 losers, so it's deceitful to take "House of Cards" profits and multiply by number of shows they produce and paint a rosy picture. The same thing goes for international market - there is way too much extrapolation based on domestic market when everybody knows you don't quite have the same margins overseas. Yes, some MMs with help of friendly analysts have been successful in duping retail investors at PE of 170 or so with rapidly dissipating earnings (they say increasing "costs" are actually "investments", so disregard them - increasing costs and decreasing margins are "good" things - what happens if these future profits don't materialize for any number of reasons - competition, change in consumer behavior, technological obsolescence, regulatory, or whatever,.) - these analysts present it as if it's a risk-free investment.
The upgrade mill is in full swing. Tomorrow in pre-market it will go up but then in the PM will begin decline. Diwn over 50 points for the week.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I feel the same way. I don 't have time to watch NFLX or anything else - in fact, my total time for watching entertainment content on TV or computer is way down. I spend more time reading on the web or browsing for best prices for my pending purchases, or do Google search, or fix photographs I took, or constantly check sports scores etc. I don't have time watching movies or shows. My interest in movies is way down because I just feel that Hollywood don't make good movies any more - I even don 't watch Oscars as much as I used to.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
When analyst upgrades come out closely spaced, one can be sure they are coordinated and their objective is to give the stock a last push up so their best clients can get out at peak price. The same thing happened to AMZN - there were "sky-is-the-limit" type scenarios painted by a few analysts and last week it took a nose dive and went down by 11 points just in two days. NFLX has been spending like crazy without any assurance that those investments will payoff given stiff competition from Apple, Amazon, Hulu, and even some of the major TV names. Some manipulators are extrapolating everything based on the growth rates of early phase for subscription, monthly charge, market penetration, success at producing original content. etc. People have been original content for 100+ years and they know that you can't produce a hit every time and producing original content is very expensive. So any forecasts based on the assumption that "House of Cards" can be repeated every time is nuts. NFLX stock has done quite well, going up like 50% in a very short period, so it's now in the domain of unrealistic euphoria painted by some analysts for whatever their self-benefiting forecasts to make money at the expense of small investors - their outrageous forecasts are attracting small naïve investors into buying this bloated stock and they would certainly be left holding with a bag of losses.
Coordinated analyst exuberance = a severe downfall is ahead. Small investors - don't be duped and stay clear.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Be careful about these upgrades - analysts use them (pending bad news about slowing sales perhaps) to get their best clients out at higher price.