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The Priceline Group Inc. Message Board

sm081969 106 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2015 2:54 PM Member since: Oct 20, 2010
  • sm081969 sm081969 Jun 8, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    50 point decline coming

  • Reply to

    Prediction for tomorrow and the week

    by sm081969 Jun 7, 2015 11:59 AM
    sm081969 sm081969 Jun 8, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    Was right on two counts - up in pre-market, but then decline. If it goes down 50 points in the next few days, I will be proven right on the third count.

  • NFLX has been manipulated by some big players with the help of analysts and now comes the time when they go for the kill. Too bad, some retail investors would get hurt. This stock is not worth more than 300.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • sm081969 sm081969 Jun 7, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    "real Future" - over-hyped positives but negatives are all ignored. I haven't seen an honest analysis. All this nonsense about super growth in subscription or can increase monthly fee to whatever they want don't reflect the reality about declining viewership or competition. "House of Cards" success is being extrapolated as if every show they produce will be a success - creating original content is not a new business and everybody knows there are no guarantees - for every new hit shows may be there are 3 losers, so it's deceitful to take "House of Cards" profits and multiply by number of shows they produce and paint a rosy picture. The same thing goes for international market - there is way too much extrapolation based on domestic market when everybody knows you don't quite have the same margins overseas. Yes, some MMs with help of friendly analysts have been successful in duping retail investors at PE of 170 or so with rapidly dissipating earnings (they say increasing "costs" are actually "investments", so disregard them - increasing costs and decreasing margins are "good" things - what happens if these future profits don't materialize for any number of reasons - competition, change in consumer behavior, technological obsolescence, regulatory, or whatever,.) - these analysts present it as if it's a risk-free investment.

  • The upgrade mill is in full swing. Tomorrow in pre-market it will go up but then in the PM will begin decline. Diwn over 50 points for the week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Cancelled my Netflix today

    by itham2002 Jun 5, 2015 4:03 PM
    sm081969 sm081969 Jun 7, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    I feel the same way. I don 't have time to watch NFLX or anything else - in fact, my total time for watching entertainment content on TV or computer is way down. I spend more time reading on the web or browsing for best prices for my pending purchases, or do Google search, or fix photographs I took, or constantly check sports scores etc. I don't have time watching movies or shows. My interest in movies is way down because I just feel that Hollywood don't make good movies any more - I even don 't watch Oscars as much as I used to.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • When analyst upgrades come out closely spaced, one can be sure they are coordinated and their objective is to give the stock a last push up so their best clients can get out at peak price. The same thing happened to AMZN - there were "sky-is-the-limit" type scenarios painted by a few analysts and last week it took a nose dive and went down by 11 points just in two days. NFLX has been spending like crazy without any assurance that those investments will payoff given stiff competition from Apple, Amazon, Hulu, and even some of the major TV names. Some manipulators are extrapolating everything based on the growth rates of early phase for subscription, monthly charge, market penetration, success at producing original content. etc. People have been original content for 100+ years and they know that you can't produce a hit every time and producing original content is very expensive. So any forecasts based on the assumption that "House of Cards" can be repeated every time is nuts. NFLX stock has done quite well, going up like 50% in a very short period, so it's now in the domain of unrealistic euphoria painted by some analysts for whatever their self-benefiting forecasts to make money at the expense of small investors - their outrageous forecasts are attracting small naïve investors into buying this bloated stock and they would certainly be left holding with a bag of losses.

    Coordinated analyst exuberance = a severe downfall is ahead. Small investors - don't be duped and stay clear.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    AMZN is obscenely over-priced

    by sm081969 Jun 2, 2015 8:51 AM
    sm081969 sm081969 Jun 3, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    Be careful about these upgrades - analysts use them (pending bad news about slowing sales perhaps) to get their best clients out at higher price.

  • Reply to

    See more upgrades in coming weeks

    by pruinvstr Jun 3, 2015 10:23 AM
    sm081969 sm081969 Jun 3, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    That means it's time to sell!

  • Institutional holders and their hired analysts are giving a [positive spin to every little news that comes out. AMZN will get into their own brand of food stuff - so that's a big news. Food stuff has extremely low margin and extremely competitive (so many food chains have gone to graveyard) - AMZN will need huge volume, a lot more than what they have, to make a penny. AMZN has gotten free ride on revenue growth but without profits - and that has been going on for years and we still don't see profits. What are the guarantees they will produce profit this year or next or the following year. So why the stock has obscenely high PE and it keeps going up. People say well it has been going up like this for years, so assume the same thing in next five years and stock will double just like it has done in the past. At some point, profit will become relevant, like tomorrow, and this stock will fall - a FPE of 165+ with 20% revenue growth? Obscene!

  • Reply to

    Can any one explain YHOO Finance numbers on NFLX?

    by sm081969 Jun 1, 2015 6:22 PM
    sm081969 sm081969 Jun 2, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    Thanks but it's based on extrapolation as if there would be no competition - I bet Amazon, Hulu, Google, Apple...and even cable companies would probably jump into this - creating original content is very expensive and there are no guarantees that NFLX will always produce hit shows (just because they got lucky with one, you can't extrapolate from that). People have hard time forecasting what will happen next year given so many issues outside the control of investors (interest rates, currencies, Greece-like debt default, wars,...), it seems a bit over optimism (sky is the limit syndrome) and a lot of wishful thinking than thoughtful valuation. I think NFLX is obscenely overvalued and there are some institutional investors as well as their analysts are overplaying every little news there is (if NFLX CEO sneezes, they will spin it as a good news for stock!) - it's manipulation and yes, they have been successful in doing that.

  • Reply to

    Can any one explain YHOO Finance numbers on NFLX?

    by sm081969 Jun 1, 2015 6:22 PM
    sm081969 sm081969 Jun 1, 2015 11:03 PM Flag

    But analysts are saying that TV viewership is declining. How can EPS est go down so much and stock price goes up so much - it seems strange a bit. Even if they have good prospects, dies not it seem it is running way ahead of itself because of momentum players ? What if things don't quite pan out as expected in 5 years - it looks like irrational extrapolation and extremely risky.

  • Reply to

    Can any one explain YHOO Finance numbers on NFLX?

    by sm081969 Jun 1, 2015 6:22 PM
    sm081969 sm081969 Jun 1, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    Why YHOO Finance EPS numbers are down so much?

  • In last 90 days:
    June'15 quarter, EPS 3estimate down from $0.94 to $0.32
    2016 EPS down from $5.58 to $3.40

    Why?

  • sm081969 sm081969 Jun 1, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    In layman's language please!

  • 1. NFLX thinking about changing business model by introducing ads and thus mimicking cable.
    2. YHOO Finance page shows dramatic decline in analyst estimates for EPS.

  • YHOO Finance shows substantial reduction in analyst estimates for EPS for the rest of 2015 and for 2016 (as much as 70-80% decline)? What's all that about? How can stock price trade at such a lofty level if outlook is less rosy than before?

  • Why would subscribers pay a monthly fee and then have to watch ads? That would be a killer unless NFLX share ad revenues with subscribers (in terms of lower monthly fee). If NFLX wants to be different from cable companies, then no ads!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    AMZN is overbought; early signs of peak.

    by sm081969 May 27, 2015 7:06 PM
    sm081969 sm081969 May 29, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    What growth story? More they sell, more money they lose. Where are the profits?

  • Fewer and fewer people watch TV these days (they spend more time on the web) - so why NFLX stock is up so much? They can't keep growing at the same rate and their focus on original content is expensive (lower margins) with increasing competition. NFLX stock has been pushed up by momentum players but the valuation has to be supported by reality - one bad news on lower subscription growth, and this stock will crash like any thing you have never seen.

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