DARTs don't mean jack, Toby.
For ETFC and all the OLB, the only catalyst that seems to matter is rate hikes and after Brexit, that bet is in serious trouble. As I warned, the assumption years back, that rates had to go up , came with a lot of caveats.
BGCP is steady as a rock while the OLB plunge.
Elvis is apparently distracted.
My passion is for the hidden value I see in BGCP, not against ETFC. Try reviewing my entire 18 month argument with SEC in which I laid out why I dislike all the OLB and prefer BGCP.
Why don't you make a case for hyper growth by ETFC, I simply don't see it. They are essentially living on trading commissions from clients who trade the least of all the OLB using DARTs as a measurement.
What's their focus after the loan fiasco? Convince me this is an exciting investment proposition?
I predict Elvis will now quietly leave the building.
" FINRA called E*Trade out for failing to adequately 'review the quality of execution of its customers' orders' and for 'supervisory deficiencies' in protecting customer information."
It's not the money, it's the black mark against customer service.
ETFC managed to suppress the PR until the Friday afternoon news dump, none of this inspires confidence.
Not the kind of PR you want.....
Shares of E*Trade ( ETFC) getting hit Friday in tandem with the broader selloff in financials in response to the weak May jobs report. Making matters worse, the online trading platform company was fined $900,000 by (FINRA) earlier this week. In a statement announcing the fine, FINRA called E*Trade out for failing to adequately 'review the quality of execution of its customers' orders' and for 'supervisory deficiencies' in protecting customer information.
Never heard of the analyst but his logic seems valid to me and any PR is welcome:
"1. BGC Partners (BGCP)
At a TTM PSR of 1.2, New York based financial services firm BGC Partners might look a tad expensive, if you consider 1 as the ideal value.
However, the company is significantly lower than the industry average of 1.6 and even the broader S&P 500 which has a ratio of 1.8. Further, this trend of trading at a discount to the S&P 500 has been observed since 2011. However, in terms of earnings so far this year, BGC has outperformed the index by a huge margin. In fact, while the industry has recorded negative earnings, BGCP has delivered 17.6% earnings growth this year -- meeting or surpassing the analyst expectations in last four quarters.
Further, the 7% dividend yield on the stock makes it even more attractive for income investors.
Going forward too, analysts expect the company to expand revenues and earnings. If BGC meets its December 2016 revenue estimate of $2.81 billion, by December 2017, sales could top $3 billion. In terms of earnings, analysts expect the company to deliver 12.5% earnings growth annually for the next five years, trumping the industry's 10.55% and the S&P 500's 7.62% figures.
In order to repay its 4.50% convertible notes set to mature in July and fund future acquisitions, BGC has announced an offer of senior notes for $300 million. With debt almost at par with equity (vis-a-vis 2.6 debt-to-equity ratio for the industry), the company has much leeway to add additional debt to boost its revenue and profitability further. This undervalued stock should be a part of your long-term wealth building strategy."
I'm still thinking we might get a CRE vertical spinoff this calendar year, anyone else have a theory?
"Nor did anyone really panic in February
“Interestingly, client cash balances remained relatively consistent, they grew pretty much in proportion to organic overall client growth that indicating, I think, the clients really didn’t panic even during that first half of the last quarter.” —Schwab CEO Walter Bettinger (Retail Brokerage)
“It’s all about capital preservation. If you can get a few percent return in a deflationary environment you’re doing fine…The US stock market seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets…also fundamentally, it’s very hard to believe in US stocks. Earnings and profit margins are dropping… the high yield market has enjoyed the easy rally. I think it’s basically over…[high yield bond] are facing enormous fundamental problems…The leverage…is enormous and you’re about to have a substantial increase in defaults. I wouldn’t be surprised if the cumulative default rate in the next five years were going to be the highest in the history of the high yield bond market.” —Doubleline CEO Jeff Gundlach (Asset Management)"
BGCP is simply following the bogey, the IAI, as best I can make out. The most interesting part of the call was Lutnick NOT expressing any frustration with the PPS. Maybe he's changing tactics, maybe he's got a deal cooking, dunno. I also was a bit disappointed not hearing anything about a NGKF spinoff. Short, lousy questions from the analysts.
Sometimes you just gotta wait.
""Nice diversification in both BGC and NGKF.
Barrons article will be out on the 14th of April I believe. It will remove some of the clouds"
I certainly agree but it's a double edged sword. It's a unique model, no comparables to seek out when you're trying to determine valuation. I think its very uniqueness is working against a fair valuation. JMHO.
Spinning off the NGKF vertical would help, again JMHO, but separate entities would allow easier comparisons.
Maybe there's hope for ETFC?
"Notably, in Feb 2016, Ally Financial had revealed its plan to expand into wealth management, mortgages and credit card operations.
Ally Financial’s CEO, Jeffrey Brown said, “The addition of wealth management is the next key step in Ally's digital product evolution and will create a powerful combination of segment-leading direct banking and innovative investment services in a single integrated customer experience. This transaction presents a compelling opportunity for customers and a logical growth opportunity for Ally.”
TradeKing has roughly $4.5 billion in client assets, including nearly $1.1 billion of cash and cash investments, 260,000 funded accounts and 20,000 daily average revenue trades (DARTs). Additionally, for 10 consecutive years, the company has received four stars in Barron's Online Broker Survey.
Following the closure of the deal, TradeKing’s management team and other 180 employees will join Ally Financial.
Ally Financial was advised by Goldman, Sachs & Co., a unit of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS, Jarrett Lilien and Sullivan & Cromwell LLP. TradeKing was advised on the deal by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, division of Bank of America Corporation BAC, and Cooley LLP.
Financial Impact and Other Benefits
Ally Financial expects the transaction to a have minimal impact on 2016 and 2017 results and will be accretive in 2018. Further, the company anticipates future growth potential “as consumer preferences drive a greater shift toward digital wealth management services.”
Also, the deal will not affect Ally Financial’s plan to reward shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, which is subject to regulatory approval from the Fed. While the deal is not going to stop the company from redeeming Series A Preferred Stock outstanding worth approximately $700 million, it is deferring the redemption of trust preferred securities worth $500 million until further notice."....
"The company previously guided to Q1 distributable earnings revenue growth of 13-21% Y/Y and pre-tax distributable earnings growth of 6-26%, and today says it's on track for about hitting the mid-point of those ranges."
Nice growth rates and when you consistently hit the mid-point of your ranges you show you're wielding a very "sharp pencil" in assessing your business. Investors hate surprises.
BGC's first quarter 2016 outlook was originally published in a press release dated February 10, 2016, and was as follows:
Original First Quarter 2016 Outlook Compared with First Quarter 2015 Results
BGC anticipated first quarter of 2016 distributable earnings revenues to increase by between approximately 13 percent and 21 percent and to be between $635 million to $680 million, compared with $563.9 million a year earlier.
BGC expected first quarter of 2016 pre-tax distributable earnings to increase by between approximately 6 percent and 26 percent and to be in the range of $80 million to $95 million, versus $75.2 million a year earlier.1
BGC expected full year 2016 Real Estate services distributable earnings revenues to increase by approximately 20 percent to $1.2 billion, compared with $1 billion in 2015.
BGC anticipated its effective tax rate for distributable earnings to remain approximately 15 percent for the year.