Stocks fluctuate.The uncertainty of MT weighs heavy the stock, with the analysts on the fence pending some transparency. But the trend is undeniable..higher highs, and higher lows. MT is the event will change or confirm this trend, imo.
WRONG. The seller of options has the huge of advantage of time decay. Most sellers see options expire at rates of 70 to 90%. That said, the risk of getting blown up is much higher for writers vs buyers. A buyer has better risk control, in that the most he can lose is the premium he paid for the option. Not so for the seller. And the very big SCORES, go to the buyers. CLF out of the money option buyers in Jan on CLF calls have made 10X and more on there money.
The bigger brokers have shares to short. But its a "hard to borrow" issue , and they charge hefty interest. Vanguard has lent out its entire position to short sellers! I would not want to be short if they negotiate a good contract with MT early. To do capex (67mill) at Northshore, LG needs confirmation on the mustang pellet. But like they say, that is what makes a market...2 sides to a trade.
Lishe I noticed you like crunching #s, and modeling. What are you handicapping for Q1 results? Operating #s. Analysts are all the map, as usual.
The question is how much of an advantage would US Steel give a competitor on price. They could most certainly supply MT with flux pellets from Minntac or Keetac, having ample excess capacity. They were to quick to supply Algoma. It would be great to see CLF make the capex commitment at United! Then we could have total confidence! The sooner the market has confirmation, the better. LG was very confident during the last CC on MT. I'm sure it will come up on the CC.
It would go under 2, and then to zero, if they loose the MT business, IMO. If they collar those contracts at reasonable terms, I would doubt we see 2 again, and could see double digits, or a 2 billion plus market cap. Maybe a lot higher long term if they gain traction in the EAF market, and collar an opportunity(Naswaulk) or 2. They need MT IN THE FOLD! And I think they will !
Is that the city with no people, and bridges to no where? Those communists are not free market disciples. They are jumping from one frying pan to the next. It ended very badly for the USSR. I hope I am short everything China, when it all blows up! LGs mandate is to distance himself from China as best he can.
Lishe, getting Minnesota pellets to the Gulf-based DRI plants is not a realistic commercial scenario, imo. No way could they compete on price with Vale, and Eastern Canadian suppliers. I think LGs motivation would be to partner with Nucor on a Great Lakes DRI facility, with Nucor putting up the cash. Nucor has a flat roll mill in Crawfordsville, Ind. Shipping DRI from Minn makes has better economics than NuIron, Louisiana. A Nucor/Cliffs takeout of Nashwauk would be interesting. Nucor has a history of securing ownership in its feed-stock, is very pro US, and might be very interested in mining assets(iron ore) right now. They have secured significant ownership in scrap companies, gas drilling companies, and rail assets, for there operations. But no iron ore. And the CEO has said they would be interested in iron ore assets. LG tried to sell them on BL. All speculation, and the timeline is very long.
I agree NNut. Zero transparency on this issue, just comments from LG on CC that everything is going great, as usual. Have they done the required capex at Northshore to do commercial production? Doubt it. Who would the customer be? There is DRI in Texas and Louisiana. How can Cliffs be a supplier.There are no DRI facilities in the Great lakes area. What exactly would Nucor's role be? Is LG considering a DRI facility at Northshore, with the help of Nucor? Shareholders have questions, few answers. Supplying the EAFs with anything seems like a long way off.
Your crazy.. You need to look at the operating results of BTU , Arch, Alpha, JRC, etc. Years of massive operating losses, and massive cash burn. Cliffs losses have come from massive impairment charges, that wiped away equity. Operating losses and cash burn have been modest , so far. And they have more flexibility on there capital structure, with mild covenants. If you have an agenda, you need step it up to be taken seriously.
Solar don't forget to sell your SUNEQ. .20/sh is better than nothing. Trading in suicide stocks when there lining up DIP financing, always play the don't. Or don't play at all. The odds of a company in a death spiral are terrible. Vultures will eat you alive, 99% of the time..
Vale and IOC supply Louisiana. Vale has Trinidad locked up. So what really is the game plan. It's physically possible for Cliffs to ship DR-pellets to Texas or Louisiana, but the economics make little sense. Was the trial based on a joint venture scenario, closer to home, on the Great Lakes? Whats LG talking about when he says that Northshore DR-Grade is now part of the portfolio? And ideas. Speculation is indeed the word!
Nucor had 2 DRI facilities, Trinidad and Louisiana. Cliffs Northshore mine ships DR-Grade pellets to Louisiana. Details are limited. but LG did say that it is part of the company's portfolio in 2016. Nucor may add a second module, if the investment makes sense. DRI plants need large amounts of iron ore and natural gas. This is a large potential opportunity for Cliffs.
Let's start with the operational side, because there really is good news to report there. Louisiana facility is running very well. The cost of that facility continue to come down. Frankly, the cost at our facility in Louisiana today rival those in Trinidad, which as you know, are world-class. Quality continues to be excellent, coming out of Louisiana. And it continues to be great coming out of Trinidad also.
In terms of whether or not the winds are changing, the answer to that is clearly, yes. Not only you referred to the iron ore price increase, but take a look at what's happening with scrap. In the last 60 days, the price of scrap has gone up maybe $70 a ton, $80 a ton. And pig iron pricing over the last two months has gone up about $100 a ton. When you look at those two factors and the impact that, that has on profitability of our – specifically our DRI operations, definitely, the wind is changing direction, and we anticipate much better results going forward.
The last point I would make is remember that the economic impact of the – of our raw material group channel, particularly our DRI facilities, impacts our entire company, not just that one particular group. So, when you look at the benefit that we see from that across the steel mills and our ability to optimize our scrap mix, there's a great economic impact across the company as well as that offsets some of the impact of our DRI facilities in the raw material group.
When we look at DRI, because of the way that the pricing goes, that we deliver it to our mills, we'll see a smaller improvement in Q2, with the majority of the improvement coming in Q3, because basically, there's a 60-day to 90-day lag in the increase in pricing that we see at our mills, because we transferred the DRI to our mills at the time and at the price where the pig iron is delivered to those operations. So, there's about a 60-day to 90-day lag in that.
So, you won't see this – the changing winds have a major impact in Q2, but we w
You were pumping SUNE just days ago, when they SAID they were gonna file. You must be a fool. CLFs only path to ch 11 would be a total loss of there MT business. Do not bet on that. They will do what they have to do! Zero credibility
Not impressed looking at there 2 biggest holdings, both dogs. So whats there game plan? Is there a conflict of interest, with there dual position on the capital structure. Can they get the company delisted? Will they attempt to take it private? Can they retain the NOLs, on change of control? Carl Ichan did it at XO comm, but he had more than 50% of the stock. Just wondering what there up to, and if we should trust them. Ichan proved to me that you don't trust anyone who controls the BOD and may have a diff end game, than other shareholders.
LG simply can't allow for that, so I would think he would take a hit on pricing to ever keep that from happening. But if did come down like that, where CLF lost 1/2 its revenue and all its cash flow, the stock is toast.