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Ford Motor Co. Message Board

smalls_62 914 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Nov 10, 2009
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  • Reply to

    T struggling to get over $33 - red flag sign

    by cooki_moonster Mar 30, 2015 11:20 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 31, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    VOD has a decent 2 year chart unlike AT&T's negative performance. AT&T is about a dime negative even when you INCLUDE dividends over the two year period. DTV turning into an AOL rerun isn't any inspiration either. Title: New Services Cloud AT&T’s Bet on Pay TV "AT&T knew it was buying a melting ice cube when it agreed to acquire satellite-TV company DirecTV last year for $49 billion. But recent moves by HBO, Apple and the NFL have turned the temperature up a few degrees. ...." As shown by the past two year performance of AT&T, yield percentage doesn't mean much when it just gets you back to break even performance. I'm not so sure yield will even be able get you back to break even going forward because AT&T was also doing significant stock buybacks during the last two years. Buybacks won't be happening going forward as they are breaching high leverage ratio benchmarks. If you are indeed a seeker of MEDIUM-LT capital gains then VZ or VOD are much better prospects in the Telco space than AT&T. Stephenson is going to hang themselves out to dry with $68B in DTV purchase costs (includes debt assumption). VZ set to launch an eMBMS service this year going for organic growth in the TV space while AT&T is buying TV head count in a business model that isn't well positioned to defend its existing cost margins. A bad dilution to existing AT&T shareholders.

    DTV=AOL rerun

  • Reply to

    T struggling to get over $33 - red flag sign

    by cooki_moonster Mar 30, 2015 11:20 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    Take note the mb klown won't touch the financials or underlying fundamentals of AT&T but merely pounds the table about yield. Yield is often a fool's gold. Structural issues and management concerns as they buy yesterday's pay TV business model at its peak as OTT players are set to flood the competition field.

    Before the klown turns this topic to VOD he needs to DD before continuing to expose his klown act. VOD is realigning itself as best of market infrastructure in both its base EU market and its significant growth markets in India and Africa, not to mention upgrades occurring across Australia. VOD has a significant growth story ahead of it, even its home market where it will have best of market 4G coverage at +90% in the next 12 months against a highly fragmented field of EU competition. There will be VOD offering top tier EU coverage and then a second tier of competition consisting of regional or national(much like a "state" in the U.S.) carrier. VOD is set to become the very dominant 4G carrier like VZ is in the U.S. Everyone else there is still very leveraged with limited capex ability to build out a competitive infrastructure to VOD.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 6:40 PM Flag

    At the lake like your imaginary Caribbean cruise? LOL Your 'lake' visit meant sitting in your tub instead of rubbing it out in the shower. I have never signed up to dating website unlike the klown who Treword and I know you to have signed up for at least two now. You will likely never enjoy the high quality day I had Saturday since you are a dime a dozen beast who doesn't realize as much.

    The only coward on this string is the one using multiple IDs and deleting his post history. Tag team? A couple months ago you accused us of being the same person. No more, no less.

    VOD will return to those levels while T buys a dinosaur.

    DTV=AOL rerun

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 6:23 PM Flag

    Very Doubtful. Softbank was once rumored to be a bidder for Vodafone stub after Vodafone exited the Verizon Wireless holding. Vodafone is way undervalued given the dominant network position it is building in across Europe with Verizon proceeds with the bulk to be completed by March 2016. Also has a strong mobile network in Australia and steadily building out a strong network across India. If India tax collectors/gov't would get out of Vodafone's way it would likely be the largest (currently #2) Telco in India. The reason I mention all this is Vodafone already has irons in the fire for capex and Sprint is the worst capex sink hole in the U.S. There is a good reason the MVNO is with TMUS. Sprint needs a huge cash injection from Son/Softbank and a major small cell build across major U.S. metros. Vodafone wouldn't be interested in a capex black hole in the U.S. when it has other markets it is deploying market leading infrastructure. Not for the next couple years. If those markets play well for Vodafone under 'Project Spring' then perhaps in a couple years Vodafone could be in position to plow capex into a fixer upper in a mostly saturated market. For now, they are grabbing better organic growth markets in Africa and more so India. India is a sleeping giant.

  • Reply to

    Vodafone Question

    by jhunterbob Mar 30, 2015 1:21 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    Vodafone does have a U.S. division already. They do intend on marketing direct subscribers but not consumer, they will be corporate market. Interesting stat on AMX.

    My opinion on Google: Google isn't about to target the big national mobile carriers but wants the MVNO to offer out of local market coverage. They are building the necessary fiber backbones in major metro markets to parlay millimeter wave using small cells. Google needs mobility beyond the metro so an MVNO is necessary. I'm curious to see if TWC-CMCSA makes it through the FCC. Their strong national footprint coupled with a possible move to a mmW based small cell would be a hard to touch mobile bandwidth network. If not, then I will watch for movements by the respective two to align with TMUS or Sprint MVNOs to provide mobile coverage outside of their fixed markets.

    DISH just a true wild card with no infrastructure and good spectrum.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    I don't see where he started every sentence with such nor where any reaction was in relation to a share count claim. You really are grasping for straws.

    Klown getting down with his happy hand over the weekend and creating yet another alias.

  • Reply to

    T struggling to get over $33 - red flag sign

    by cooki_moonster Mar 30, 2015 11:20 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    $1.20 included the pension liability recognition. Mortality adjustments keep getting moved up and T has neglected the funding. Instead they were doing stock buybacks the past couple years. That game of stock buyback helping to boost share price is ending as debt leverage is going above benchmarks. $18B in new debt from spectrum auction which won't be put in play (potentially have a return on investment) until 2017.

    AT&T also had a big tax write off in copper assets BUT if there wouldn't have been this write off there would have been a tax bill instead so I don't know if you can consider that a "one time" item. Continued write off needed or tax bill uses up cash flow. I don't think the $68B in DTV is a wise tax write off vehicle with the increased float and new dividend expense (near $2B) and interest expense (appx $900MM) and amortization (25 year amortization required to keep DTV acquisition from being cash flow negative). Massively diluting shareholders by exposing them to a dinosaur TV delivery business model just to avoid paying uncle sam isn't the smartest move in the book.

    End of story, is AT&T going to properly fund their pension obligations or will this be a continuing issue YOY....

  • Reply to

    Vodafone Question

    by jhunterbob Mar 30, 2015 1:21 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    VOD is going to do an MVNO on TMUS network scheduled for launch late this year and they indicated a primary focus on U.S. business clients specifically sporting the VOD global network for the international business class. Legere just recently announced a move to begin targeting business class customers as well.

    Don't believe Vodafone is poised to make a move in U.S. retail as the focus for them is on building the best of market 4G across Europe. They are targeting +90% 4G coverage in Vodafone's EU market (Think VZ's U.S. coverage map vs. competition a few years ago) as well as Vodafone making major upgrades in India, Australia and African emerging market networks. The big ticket I've been watching is Vodafone's move in Europe for fiber infrastructure. Their purchases have included some cable customers (Germany) but far and away the focus is obviously fiber backbone. Where they haven't been able to purchase fiber for a reasonable price they have been announcing joint fiber builds (Portugal with Portugal Telecom, Ireland with the power company, Italy build may be reduced if a rumor comes true on a minority purchase in existing fiber).

    If one takes a hard look at 4.5G designs using small cell, Vodafone is targeting the necessary infrastructure ingredients for the next step in mobile broadband expansion. On a side note I think Google is doing the same thing in the U.S. You must have an expansive fiber backbone to major metro markets to unlock the IoT using small cells for the final mile "connection". Google working hard on millimeter spectrum research made a filing for testing of mmW with FCC last fall. Based on Vivint's letter to the FCC, one would be lead to believe it isn't if, but when the vendors unleash final mile wireless technology allowing multiple Gbps networks.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    LOL Take a hard look at bandwidth expansion beginning in 2015 and exploding going forward. Title II's net neutrality and adequate bandwidth to the masses allowing for IP TV brings dozens of pay TV bundlers into the space. Currently the two sats and single local cable provider have been able to break it off in the TV consumer with little competitive pressure. Bring in a couple dozen competitors.....AOL rerun. Sales and profits won't hold up.

  • Reply to

    Beware message for stock holders

    by dlw2244 Mar 27, 2015 4:01 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    Didn't read the fine print did you? This fine print under a dirt cheap big print price is a recent target of FTC. Should have been such a long time ago. DTV is not a good short with a pending AT&T purchase UNLESS you think FCC blocks the deal or AT&T's Stephenson wakes up to the realization DTV is and AOL rerun with broadband expansion bringing dozens of IP TV bundlers into the playing field.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    FCC would have to close the Ergen loopholes. I do wonder about the ability of VZ and T to increase debt for another spectrum auction. Both are leveraged up with recent moves. VZ buying out VZ Wireless stake it didn't own in Vodafone as well as AWS spectrum purchases and for AT&T, their leverage already significant with recent spectrum of $18B and capex needs as it rolls into a distant third place Mexico operation.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    Just another day until it can get around the GPS/FCC issue. Then it would be a new day and getting back to work.

  • Reply to

    AT&T Declares Quarterly Dividend....

    by treword77 Mar 27, 2015 8:40 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    Junior inheriting it in another two or three years? Pay TV bundling about to hit its tipping point as bandwidth expansion starting in 2015 and booming in 2016 finally brings highly competitive IP TV bundlers into the forefront. The DTV 'ice cube' is going to melt fast.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    The IoT won't be happening for AT&T unless they build out bandwidth capacity which they claim will be cut with Title II. This one might be interesting to throw at AT&T brass in CC or investors' meeting. How are they going to compete in the IoT if they are refusing to expand capacity under their threats against Title II move by FCC.

  • Reply to

    RootMetrics

    by ltemk2 Mar 25, 2015 10:25 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    Here it is TR. Thoughts?

  • Reply to

    U.S. wireless saturation?

    by cypersonic Mar 28, 2015 3:50 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Unmetered and uncapped across all carriers will be the golden ticket for consumers much like talk and text eventually became....should we not forget we used to have those 300 and 500 minute mobile talk plans etc. TV going mobile and the IoT.....and the likes of AT&T threatening to cut its capex on FCC invoking Title II. ROFL They can cut while everyone else steals the IoT? Hollow threats or true stupidity? Capacity will be resolved with small cell Cypersonic. Small cell exactly what the Softbank brass was brought to Sprint USA for recently. Search: Huawei 4.5G 6 Gbps

    TR, don't think I ever got a response out of a post of mine here that was directed at you. I will try to find and push to the top.

  • Reply to

    AT&T Declares Quarterly Dividend....

    by treword77 Mar 27, 2015 8:40 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    When DTV turns into the AOL rerun those dividends may not keep coming.

  • Reply to

    Comparing AT&T & VOD

    by nige_co Mar 30, 2015 4:49 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 30, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    T up $6.75 on the back of a very large two year run of stock buybacks (reducing share count) leaving AT&T significantly leveraged up.

  • Reply to

    Vodafone a winner in Indian auction

    by nige_co Mar 27, 2015 1:18 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 27, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    20 year licenses. Should provide good long term cover. With those massive population centers I imagine they will have to set up for some kind of small cell infrastructure to handle the data demands that will be coming with such a huge population.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Mar 27, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    P.S. WSJ is not putting a nail in the coffin. Stephenson is building the coffin with a BOD approval.

    DTV=AOL rerun

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