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Ford Motor Co. Message Board

smalls_62 515 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Nov 10, 2009
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  • Reply to

    People need to get out more

    by debrasteitztravel Jul 4, 2014 4:08 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 8, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    Solid long term? Another four year contract? NFL isn't going to want to tie down for much longer as IP TV is changing the TV viewing market. Golden Age of bundled TV is ending. The moat is dropping for bundlers. The race is on for 1 gbps internet to allow seamless feed, videoconferencing and streaming TV. Stephenson just ran in the opposite directions. Satellite may be able to down stream video but you have the upload hurdle. Good luck with that. Fiber is the future, not satellite.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 8, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    Copper dial-up will be used with fiber to provide 1 gig speeds at 20% of the cost of full fiber. If some farmers in northern U.K. can make full fiber work for $45/mo OR two telecoms in rural North Dakota can cover 100,000 square miles serving less than 18,000 customers for ~$100/mo then what do you think they can do when G.fast knocks out 80% of the cost? Get a clue. High speed internet coming to all but VERY remote locations and that isn't much to be left for satellite TV. 20 million customers moving to IP feeds of 1 gigabite are going to be defecting. Only 2 million NFL Sunday Ticket subscribers to attempt a product differentiation. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Citigroup Says VOD "Very Cheap"

    by nigeco Jul 5, 2014 4:34 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 7, 2014 6:41 PM Flag

    Some don't realize the huge impact of VOIP and WiFi on both mobile and TV/video subscriptions. Fiber is the primary toll road of the future and Colao is still turning the ship in that direction when they were, for the most part, a stand alone mobile phone carrier. Many not doing their homework on technology advancements sit cross eyed as the ship turns. The last thing an admiral is going to do is disclose all of his planned advancements until all the boats are about to turn with all guns firing - do your homework on the virtual wallets M-Pesa and SmartPass launches during 2014. Consolidation is just getting rolling in EU telecom. Be prepared or get leveled and VOD is wisely moving into the target converging target technology. LTE is secondary gap filler for WiFi voids. VOD has the advantage of buying the best of breed fiber&cable with its cash and deploying top of the line networks across EU. Most in EU telecom are cash strapped because of heavy gov't regulation limiting profits and therefore the field of potential hunters.

  • Reply to

    Smalls_62 "never shorts stocks"

    by labbydogblack Jul 7, 2014 12:03 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 7, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    LOL Keep your head stuck in the sand but don't try to say you weren't warned when the IP TV truck lops off your backside. Since you can't defend the fundamentals of this very poor strategic move you want to come after me. Maybe you should be looking at your bean counting CEO who already lost $6B of your coin.

  • Reply to

    Smalls_62 "never shorts stocks"

    by labbydogblack Jul 7, 2014 12:03 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 7, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    It isn't a matter of if but when. Stephenson is a loose cannon with a pocket full of shareholders money. TMUS only cost you 6B and will be 10 cents on the dollar compared to the cost to shareholders when DTV customers start leaving in droves for $50/mo IP bundles like Google TV, Apple TV, Amazon Prime, or even DISH low frills package. I'm interested to see that web bundle pricing with Disney on board as well as his Blockbuster MoviePass assets. Golden age of pay TV bundling is here and about to disappear into the sunset. IP TV adds a ton of freedom for TV viewers.

  • Reply to

    Smalls_62 "never shorts stocks"

    by labbydogblack Jul 7, 2014 12:03 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 7, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    If I'm wasting mine then you are just as much wasting yours. Funny stuff.

    I do not hold any position, long or short, in T. DTV is AOL in the making. Its big revenue/[rofit market will come under heavy pressure over the next few years. We can call it Dexter Shoe if you want. Same end result.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 7, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    I see you continually avoid the fundamentals of T and instead attack me or a half witted comment about another equity.

    P.S. I have no debt other than a 3% mortgage I won't pay off early unless I decide to move only because I can get a better return than paying it off early. Your logic is comical.

  • Reply to

    People need to get out more

    by debrasteitztravel Jul 4, 2014 4:08 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 7, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    I've been out of the USA and was informed DTV subscribers pay $22.50/month for full TV package including HBO channels/movie package. If you paid attention you would realize those markets are low enough on income they aren't going to pay a lot for TV when their income has greater demands on it for food, shelter and clothing, even transportation. Now go check the ARPU for the DTV market outside of the USA. 20 million U.S. subscribers, 18 million Latin American subscribers. 80% of revenue in U.S., 20% of revenue in Latin America. What happens when 80% of your revenue begins defecting to IP video? Common sense my friend. The profits are in the states. When the USA begins defecting to fiber and fiber hybrids so goes DTV's profits.

    Secondly you need to realize "never" is a strong, strong word to use. BTW, over 40% of the Latin America pay TV market is already penetrated and even competition is building for that market as competitors come into the picture.

  • Reply to

    Why are they deleting posts ?

    by jwaltz234 Jul 3, 2014 12:04 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 3, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    With three posts on this topic now having been deleted it is apparent Yahoo server is eating them or someone is going nuts with multiple IDs reporting them as spam. Very much a possibility as T shareholders don't want negative outlook posted for a sacred dividend.

  • Nice conversation I've had on other media I had to post.

    Google goosed Grande in Austin too. Rabbit isn't a bad epithet but it isn't Google they are chasing in individual markets. Cable and wired telecom are getting pushed into keeping Google out. Maybe we can call Google the fox trying to get into the hen house or it might be most appropriate 'The Three Little Pigs' and Google is the big bad wolf. Fat little pigs going to have to ease up on the hog trough and fortify their communications market. Satellite TV is the straw house, cable & copper telecoms built of sticks who can quickly add brick veneer with fiber hybrid technology if they choose such. The strongest house will be VZ FiOS and the likes of local/regional full fiber players like Grande Communications. Google Fiber/TV is forcing a move for communications players to get off their backsides and build the brick house. I notice Grande is offering 1 gbps for $64.99/month. :-) AT&T headed in the wrong direction blowing $68B to avoid bandwidth consumption instead of building a network to support the demand. People will enjoy their lag free internet in addition to seamless TV feed not subject to weather issues like satellite and at a cheaper price than a DTV subscription costs. DTV is the straw house and Stephenson thinks letting the straw pig into his stick house is going to save their bacon. Pun intended.

  • Reply to

    Will this stock ever correct?

    by back_bay_professor Jul 3, 2014 10:17 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 3, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    There is a supportive buyback program which would have to be exhausted before a firm correction can begin. Good luck calling that point. That will take some time.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 3, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    Funny, Goldman Sachs stands to pocket 54 million from DTV advisory fees....I don't think they are about to say anything negative about DTV Einstein. Even funnier, Goldman Sachs represented bloated AOL in the Time Warner deal. I bet they didn't say anything bad about AOL during the deal making but a few years later AOL was worth pennies on the dollar.

    Maybe you should rethink your blind faith in Goldman. BTW, Berkshire's move was the two minions that loved the moat. Even Buffett has his slip ups. One he often brings up himself is Dexter which he thought had a comfortable competitive moat.
    ""What I had assessed as durable competitive advantage vanished within a few years," ~Warren Buffett

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 3, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Those populations classified rural include an endless list of small towns who have fiber trunks already laid into them. Do your homework instead of looking with rose colored glasses. G.fast tech will make it dirt cheap to install fiber hybrid speeds at 1 gbps. You guys don't seem to realize the bulk of the cost is last leg into the home. It isn't that expensive to run fiber until you do the final leg into the home. G.fast knocks out 80%, some reports 90%, of the cost to install 1 gb speeds. If full fiber to the home can be cash flowed in North Dakota covering a 10,000 square mile territory with less than 18,000 subscribers then it sure as $7!t can be profitably done when G.fast is deployed. Major game changers coming with G.fast and DOCSIS 3.1. Rural territories will get their fiber hybrid networks and satellite will fall hard.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 2, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    AOL move in the making and these posters want to defend a CEO who already urinated away $6B. Crazy to ignore the writing on the wall. No lag ISP bundles with TV package for less than what DTV charges for TV alone is just common sense defection of satellite customers. Colao saw the writing on the wall and used his VZW proceeds to stay relevant and grab fiber/fiber hybrid positioning while Stephenson makes a lay up on the wrong end of the court as the opposing team lets him score and the crowd looks on in bewilderment at the silly player. His comments about gearheads as well as FOLLOWING Google's actions said more than a mouthful. His bean counter pedigree is apparent as he lacks strategic vision with a DTV purchase. He attempts to avoid bandwidth consumption with satellite feeds while the rest of the field will provide the bandwidth consumers want. Video calls/conferencing will become a lag free offering T won't have without deploying fiber or fiber hybrid technology. Build it or someone else will. Cable and telecoms attempting to stay in front of full fiber deploy firms will be motivated to push new tech into swift commercial launch.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 2, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Simple geographic canvassing of fiber play would be the only reason IMO. Joint Venture would have a huge hurdle given the EE JV. Would be messy. Likely a rumor that will pass.

  • Reply to

    What is the real dividend going forward?

    by djp5625 Jul 2, 2014 3:53 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 2, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Flush with cash. A Motley Fool author has bagged on sustainability of dividend quoting EPS etc without backing out 'Project Spring'. Project Spring is a massive capex move by VOD which greatly jumps capex for three years. VOD has hugely boosted to capex and used cash to position as a bundled provider (previously a naked mobile telecom with exception of CWW), namely an intelligent positioning in fiber plays which are changing the telecom landscape with streaming video and VOIP. The 6 for 11 reverse split brings the stock about in line with prior position based on VZW sale price.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 2, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    Have no fundamental rebuttal so all you can do is fall back on dividend yield? Shaking my head and grinning. The game is changing with the technologies that vastly reduce the cost of ultra high speed internet. AT&T slitting its own throat with capex when DTV revenues start to fall in U.S. Google has to be praying the DTV deal is approved by U.S. antitrust. AT&T will chicken wing themselves for capex needed to push out fiber and fiber hybrid internet.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 2, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Google is proof in the pudding that the market wants the service. G.Fast and Gigasphere technologies change the landscape and can be deployed much quicker than full fiber to the home. Your leader is playing a bad defensive scheme instead of going on the offensive. DTV is a defensive move that will get ran over by ultra high speed fiber and fiber hybrid networks. T's dividend is not safe if DTV deal is completed and may even be pressured in the longer term without DTV as VOIP becomes more wide spread here like it has already occurred in Europe. Mark it.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 2, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    Do your homework. Google isn't throwing it away. Google Fiber is self sufficient. Cable technology and final mile copper for telecom technology is changing the game. Much of the backbone fiber is already in place if you just do some reading. There is no gov't involved when GOOG can do full fiber and still turn a profit. New technologies in the very near future chops out 80% of expense for 1 giga internet..... Use some common sense. Government won't be needed.

    Latin America isn't where DTV's profits are at....20 million U.S, 18 million Latin, 80% of DTV revenue in U.S. You might read this about ten times over to let it sink in the ARPU and profits are in the U.S. before posting the Latin subscriber garbage.

    Google Fiber/TV bundle is priced down/not up from DTV subscription alone, not to mention another $30 for a slow

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 Jul 2, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    Calling it spam is classic.

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