This is what I've been posting for about three months. They can still get through the window but they must move soon before the window is closed. The window is indeed closing BUT not closed yet should be noted.
Given the meeting with Kroes in recent weeks and CFO Stephens even more recently greasing investor wheels for a move into EU without saying "Vodafone"...... Place your bets.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thought you weren't buying until it dropped back below $46 print?
"mulat6821 • Mar 4, 2014 11:28 AM Flag
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OK Boys and Girls. Vz has crossed the $48 threshold. Per my earlier rants I am selling here. Buy back when it dips below 46.
The leash is firmly in place."
If you have made three trades in a fifty to maybe eighty cent window vs. the two dollars collar we discussed then your grand proclamation is a little premature. You can trade for pennies and I'll wait for the dollars. Traders by a great majority lose money in the long run. It is all about annual returns and I can say I have been smoking the market averages for a number of years.
His argument is the market will go down and take T with it. If a large scale war is launched then there might be no place to hide your investments. Gloom and doomers.... The original poster is likely still waiting for DOW 2000 that was supposed to happen when the market was crashing in 2008/early 2009.
Your only response to such an inflammatory roast of your post and all you do is punt. Says enough about your analytical ability.
It is important to keep in mind exemptions were cited. Think VOD board is giving shareholders the gentlemen's benefit to return their VZ and cash proceeds back into VOD stake before moving forward on a deal. JMO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't think they are Salt. I think it is a ruse to bury the important topic at hand as we move forward. If this poster has been playing the market for over a decade then he knew and understood the special dividend. There has been a ton of old accounts not used in many, many years posting this very same garbage. Could be our old friend Rub using many monikers of old. I call bull and will be bumping the relative topics vs. a deal that is done. The discussion of this matter is worthless as we move forward.
For others: There was a gap created after $40.89 with the next day's lowest print of a $40.94 which has yet to close.
I would tend to think it would close but, just as Rub pointed out and I admitted to in the past couple months, I'm the person who wants to be in the market just in case news breaks. After the fractional shares cash is paid out I would say a T bid is in full play. If you have waited around for a nickel gap to close for 20 cents cheaper buy price below today's closing, and news breaks before the gap closes, nobody is to blame but yourself. Just my personal philosophy coming out and you have to be happy with your entry decision. IF IF IF you think T will happen sooner than later, then holding out for 18 or 19 cents (your bid may not get filled if it is a quick hit drop to close the gap) vs. missing out on approximately 50% upside isn't worth the opportunity cost in my book. JMO Best of luck in your decision.
The recent bar chart for VOD is rather choppy and a mess but it does appear to be flagging the past couple weeks of trade. SPY is hitting the top end of a pretty long term channel with a 67 RSI and could move slightly beyond . Could be a small selloff in the broad market soon but one never knows as it could move sideways for awhile instead to burn off the strong RSI.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Believe you are six one hand, half dozen the other. T was behind on 4G network build and it shows in coverage. T is playing some catching up with the large T capex. VZ can scale back somewhat on capex and still be spending enough to have a healthy enough capex. Few seem to realize VZ gained 45% of the income. Consolidated FCF for VZ after capex and dividends are paid is +16B per year. = won't take but a little over five years to pay off all debt and that is with no profit growth. On a short term basis there might be a better play in VOD with a potential T takeover but VZ will be a fine holding in 4-5 years as debt is paid off and some of that cash flow is moved to shareholder pockets.
Kafkaclone is clueless. His cash flow and debt analysis is worthless. VZ's cash flow is 7X, yes 7X, more than what he posted on VZ message board. Moodys already addressed a possible T/VOD deal a few months ago. It is all about proper balance of cash and stock issued in a takeover. VZ worked with debt rating agency in structuring its deal and T will VERY likely be doing the same if a T/VOD price be agreed upon. WSJ recently floated a 150B takeover price with 60B cash/90B stock.
Should be kafkaclown, not kafkaclone.
Not so sure TD Ameritrade has it accurate. From the circular: special dividend statement it appears your original (total dollars) cost basis remains with the new VOD shares. The VZ shares and cash subject to dividend tax. Cash portion should cover any taxable liability.
25% to as much as +50% depending. If it was the day before the big word broke of a negotiation in process and one bought at $29.40 then you are up +36% today. Some idiots implying the a dividend action should have increased their profit percentages. Let us display how stupid this logic is now.
T/VOD announces tomorrow they have agreed VOD will be acquired for $60/share with 40% cash and 60% shares. VOD share price then rises to $60 at market open. The deal closes in six months. Shareholder Gruck bought his shares before a deal was announced and made 50%. Ron bought his VOD four months down the road at a $60 price just before the proceeds were dispersed. Ron, how in the world did you expect to profit from the disbursement of sale proceeds. There is nothing to be expected in a DISBURSEMENT of proceeds.
The hope you have as a late-in-the-game buyer is the PROCEEDS of the "special dividend" will further appreciate in the future. Ignorant expecting a disbursement action will result in increased profits. What Ron has in $100 now is the variance of new asset price appreciation since the time of disbursement.
VOD paying out $20 bills to everyone but Ron expected to receive $25 when all VOD said was they were handing out was $20. Walk away with your $20, stay with the $6 dollars invested in VZ, $2.50 in cash and $11.50 remaining in VOD, OR one could sell VZ $6 and use the $2.50 in cash to put your $20 all back into VOD stock.
This biggest thing accomplished with the VZ sale and special dividend is VOD no longer has an ownership stake in VZ. No longer an antitrust issue for T to purchase VOD. Otherwise VOD could have retained VZ shares and collected a nearly 5% current dividend and had a decent size minority stake in Verizon Communications. VOD management is letting the individual shareholder decide if the shareholder wants a continued investment in VZ.
You're an absolute troglodyte if you believe the numbers you just posted are acccurate. Completely wrong. Go back to free cash flow school. VZ nearly doubled their cash flow with the purchase of VZ Wireless stake from VOD as well. BEFORE VZ bought the 45% share of VZ Wireless the 2013 cash flow was 38.8B with total capex of 17B. Free cash flow (cash flow LESS capex) was 22B for 2013. THEN VZ ADDED 45% of Verizon Wireless free cash flow when they deal closed February 21.
VZ's consolidated FCF (after dividends & capital spending, before distributions to Vodafone) was $16.3 billion in 2013. 16.3B in consolidated FCF BEFORE VOD payments = Pro forma VZ Wireless closing deal. 90B in debt /16.3B consolidated FCF = 5.52 years to extinguish all existing debt. I would say it is an absolutely beautiful plan. VZ is a superb long term holding. This will be an absolute dividend mega machine as the debt is paid down and the debt service money is redirected to shareholders.
Kafkaclone, you should use a different ID/moniker because you've made this one out to be a complete imbecile.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You are an idiot. I don't have to liquidate anything. Of course I want the price to go up Einstein. I am not a short player here. Already said both stocks are about 20% undervalued right now.
Nice to see your finally figured it out genius. Been posting for months on VOD board that VZ shares are a great holding which should pay off very, very well in five years.
"British law required AT&T to respond to rumors last year that it was contemplating a purchase of Vodafone." Actually, the response was this year. At least they disclosed the Vodafone board can approve a deal within the restriction period. Testing of the bond market not bad.
Thx for posting.