VOD still has plenty of room to run but T's window of cheap money is steadily being closed by the Fed. They need to move soon if they have true intentions of making a splash into Europe.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Can't believe some of the ignorant questions being asked yesterday and again today....
Saved an old clip from last Fall......"With 2012 free cash flow of $28.6 billion at Verizon Wireless, RBC Capital Markets analyst Doug Colandrea said Verizon has the ability to rapidly repay the debt raised to fund the deal." Five years the majority of debt will be repaid. Your figures are waaaaay off the mark. It is a very rare time when a deal is immediately accretive to earnings. VZ was VERY smart to get this deal done before interest costs on bond floats push much higher as Fed tapers QE.
The return to shareholders value was as advertised. Did you expect a significant jump in price although a majority of the deal value was recognized in share price appreciation since the deal was announced six months ago? That is messed up logic. I do believe there is value to be recognized in coming days and weeks as analysts provide new ratings and people realize T can now make a bid for VOD.....just don't expect a 10 or 20% pop on a DIVIDEND being paid. That is what I gather you were expecting from your disdain. Let this transaction marinate......
Gruck, when I see you posting I always check to see if I haven't wondered over to the Ford message board by mistake. I may wonder back there some day.
Are you talking the old or new options? Old options are best addressed as your broker says. Easy method is per contract. It does not provide any premium calcs but I don't think one will receive any premium going forward since they are a subset of options. Easiest way is create an Excel table. I'll share mine and hope it isn't too confusing.
"$ VZ"______"$ VOD"
_($VZ cell)_($VOD cell)
"26 shares"_ =26 X (VZ cell)
_____________$527_____ (Although I see WChang calculated $542 cash, *options on 100 share lots)
"54 shares"_ =54 X (VOD cell)
"Total Sum" _(formula sum of all three/100)
That will give you the old value calculation per share to compare against the old strikes. Then build an additional chart below or beside that one reflecting strike(s) vs. the current market price produced by what I just posted above. Mine actually uses three different pricings and is five columns by 11 rows (although I don't use a couple rows with having 7 different strike prices).
__(blank)_____(blank)______(current market $)__(analyst median PT $)___(Takeover PT $)
(#of contracts)_(strike)____(=contractsXstrikeXabove cell)_same formula___same formula
repeat same line as above but make sure you reference the current market $ in third factor of formula
repeat same(7 more times or however many different strikes you need)
The sum X100 give you the $ value of each contract. Hope this isn't too messy when it posts and you can understand it. When you put in value for analyst PT and takeover PT you need to remember those figures should be on old VOD price. You can go back to the first chart though and play with the VZ and VOD entering the new share price targets to arrive at PT's in old share form. The blended VZ/VOD PT price I use for analysts PT is $45 while takeover is a finesse game that is real SWAG but is still in line with my old terminal value area of $50-55 with a bullseye of $53.
2.86Bshares + 1.27B shares X market price. Someone mentioned the share surge was part of a weighting rebalancing that was triggered today for VZ. Hence the surge in late day trade.
Ever get the feeling the selling pressure might be here as a bid is prepared? I expect a two to possibly a four dollar pricing collar just like the VZ/VOD deal occurred.
Please read a Financial Times piece titled "Vodafone powers best FTSE close since 1999". Within the piece T indicates EU possibility still in play and Nomura is referenced as well saying the debt markets still cheap and open which equals the window of opportunity is now. Keep in mind the Fed is tapering QE monthly and last meeting minutes some even discussed bumping interest rates. T has to move soon as rates will drive higher on the back of continued QE taper.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
His answer has been posted here repeatedly for days and weeks. There is a "search message boards" that could be of great use instead of everyone being lazy. ....just make sure you click on the "current board" tab when you are done putting in key search words.
This is just a bunch of garbage posting here. The nuts aren't going to bury the very key AT&T topics. I will keep pushing them back up to the top.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It went from 2.89B to ~4.16B float after the deal closed Friday. There is not 5.5B. Do your homework and report back to us.
tiglet, you are the dope here. I was quoting your silly short basher. Note the quotations in my post. I argue the drop will be brief and end sooner than later. I'm handing him his head and giving him an education to boot.
You are indeed very misinformed. That float figure you just posted is before the new issue of 1.27B. 2.8B increased to 4B share float. Keep in mind they went from owning 55% of Verizon Wireless to 100% while only increasing float 44%. It could have nearly doubled the float with an all stock kind of deal. Financing was dirt cheap and why it was very important to get a deal done before the Fed kills off QE and starts to raise interest rates. Rare times in financial history that cheap financing caused M&A's to be immediately earnings accretive. The large cash flow gained will pay off the majority of new debt within 5 years. That is when this deal will REALLY pay off nicely for long term shareholders. VZ destined for a strong long term rise.
The share liquidation facility that was established is likely what you see flying across the volume screens in closing minutes and AH. The volume during the day was likely unhedged liquidations as well as some traders.
VOD does NOT own the VZ shares! The VZ shares were given to VOD shareholders in a special dividend along with ~$5 in cash. The balance of remaining cash paid by VZ is being retained by VOD as well as a minor stake in Vodafone Italia that was held by VZ. There was a share liquidation facility established for those VOD shareholders who wanted to dump their VZ shares. The facility looks to be moving everything through.
616,563,166 volume showing so far for VZ today with average of 33MM. Flow back hit real hard today.... Half the new shares issued traded hands. I'm sure there is a lot of day trading but that is crazy flow back volume.
Actually, it should be rather swift as there was a share liquidation facility for those who chose or were forced to sell due to the Euro fund limitations.
Google finance just updated as well as final settlements still piling through. Google showing 343MM while my TD Ameritrade is reflecting 435,123,088 as of this moment. This is in line (slightly over) with the expected 25% of VOD holders liquidating their new VZ shares from the deal.