for a possible T approach per FlyontheWall. DTV is dead money IMO. Limited growth potential in a mature market and no spectrum. Either Stephenson is ignorant or somebody is feeding garbage rumors to the market/media. T shareholders would be wise to hope it is the latter. A DISH approach would make more sense than DTV. I guess DTV can have all the advisors they want but one would hope Stephenson isn't ignorant enough to give them a reason for advisors. I'm not the only one scratching my head on this DTV rumor. A couple analysts can't believe it either...
$2 might be a little rich but quite likely green given this is a financially engineered deal. Devil was in the details and few media pieces reported a key point T will be divesting of AMX stake. Very little to no new debt. AMX sale +$7B, tower sale to Crowncastle $4.85B, wired Connecticut sale to Frontier $2B announced in past six months = little to no new net debt. T gets FCF gunpowder likely with a bigger deal still likely in its crosshairs. Financial engineering.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This is not the original AT&T but scraps were bought out and name assumes.
#7 is where you are wrong and that is where the concern is for investing in T. The rest of your list is honestly pretty darn good but #7. One bad apple can spoil a whole barrel of shiny apples. Revisit your #3 and ask yourself why you need #7 when the cost of fiber deployment is about to come crashing to the ground rendering #7 an inferior move. #8 is an excellent reason and you could just state M2M growth potential going forward. Satellite in U.S. is a mature and soon to be fading technology.
No it wouldn't. Vodafone may have bought some cable companies in EU but those cable providers are the ones who have been building fiber networks in the EU. It is about owning the fiber delivery pipe, not being a content bundler. If U.S. cable companies were the ones building fiber here then I might agree. Cable and satellite as well as some mobile revenue attrition losses to fiber w/WiFi going forward. Majority in the industry agree mobile streaming video is the future. LTE is limited by spectrum log jams.
Given Google's fiber, virtual/mobile wallet, mobile phone aspirations in the U.S. I think Vodafone would be a prime target for GOOG as VOD would provide a mix of such on four continents with partnerships on another two. Most intriguing move is the split class of shares performed recently by GOOG founder Brin and Page. That move is often reserved for an expectation their voting rights might be diluted in the future for one reason or another - keeps them in power like the Ford family. What is GOOG up to that would dilute them that heavily? GOOG market cap at 378B with VOD at 89B with GOOG sitting on 59B in cash.....
RH has a ton of misinformation in his blogging. Hard to be certain if it is intentional misleading or ignorant but given his continual bashing with less than complete information I believe his shoddy posting is intentional.
Softbank controls Sprint. Why would VOD try to buy it from Sofbank at a disadvanted market position getting pimp slapped by VZ and T with pretty much a mobile stand alone position? The future is fiber/fiber hybrids with wifi. Mobile as a stand alone is not a good position going forward with converging communications. Spectrum is the limiting issue and why fiber with wifi is the long term trend.
"Time To Buy European Large Caps: Morgan Stanley"
VOD hits two of three group screens. Definitely high on the Morgan Stanley list of Euro Large Cap targets. Among a small field of mostly oil & gas related as well as financial services/banking.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I consider the rumor to be a joke as there is little motive for T to purchase DTV. They publicly bagged on VOD's cable asset acquisition (although those were all about buying top of the market fiber networks). I see little reason for T to buy a satellite sector which has reached a flat growth trajectory. Any good insights from T faithful for the logical tie up? I'm all ears but see much greater growth potential in not only communications but banking/money transfer biz in a VOD acquisition.
If you don't know what I'm talking about with banking/money transfer then you should familiarize yourself with M-Pesa and SmartPass apps being launched throughout VOD's markets. M-Pesa initially started in Kenya of all places and has trickled into other African markets has JUST completed India wide launch in India market. M-Pesa in partnership with Safaricom. Then, when you look at SmartPass, one should find VISA has partnered in launching SmartPass (an EU version of M-Pesa) beginning late last year in Europe. There is a staggered launch underway for SmartPass in EU. Some have speculated M-Pesa may eventually be folded in with SmartPass.
Then go search for an article by "El-Erian bitcoin". If you miss the one important sentence then the whole article is confusing jibberish to many people. "Its [bitcoin] impact, both actual and potential, is relatively limited when compared to ongoing attempts to enhance and democratize lending, borrowing, investing, and payments and settlements." Maybe he is talking about mobile financial apps called M-Pesa/SmartPass that would be brought across the pond with a T purchase of VOD? Maybe I'm smoking something but it wouldn't hurt for message board readers to do some reading up on the broad swath the banking/financial apps are covering and think about the impact such a deal would have with a global tie up.
Sentiment & disclosure:Long VOD and will be long whatever merged company is created IF T cuts a deal.
It is all based on unconfirmed reports. T shareholders can only hope this is a false report by "insiders" that won't be revealed. Neither party has even confirmed negotiations are taking place. Hopefully Stephenson is as smart as I thought he is and this rumor is false. Otherwise T becomes the dinosaur bag holder of DTV and Charlie gets the last laugh.
Everyone but Stephenson which makes you wonder why in world did he do it when most everyone in the industry thinks it is a bad move. If streaming is the future, as Stephenson has repeatedly stated, then why are you buying a technology that doesn't position the company in that path? A satellite technology expected to fade, sputter and choke at the hands of streaming.
For those who do not understand, satellite is not streaming. Fiber is the premium streamer followed by cable ISPs and then DSL. Google is positioning in Fiber, VZ has positioned in fiber within its markets, even VOD's Colao is out buying those cable companies in Europe with the best established fiber footprints (just announced deal to buy fiber+spectrum play in South Africa as well). What Stephenson has said (streaming) and what he is doing with DTV purchase, are at opposite ends of the spectrum. (pun intended) Something wreaks badly in this deal. Is this a horrible knee jerk reaction by Stephenson or some kind of goofy head fake? If it is a head fake, he sure is making a great comedy act but makes himself look like a fool in the process.
The devil is in the details. T is selling its AMX stake which was +9% until a recent 1% reduction. This provides well over half the cash compenent. They've also sold wired assets in Connecticut for $2B cash recently as well as some towers sold and leased back. There is very little to possibly no new net debt to be serviced in this transaction. T gains DTV free cash flow with little to no new debt service. This could be a setup for an even bigger M&A play. Allows for a stronger cash flow which means a bigger gun in European possibility of VOD bid.
A lot of people in the industry cite the same things and the only defense that holds any water at all is the PROSPECT of growth in South America which I would argue is offset by a big negative outlook for U.S. satellite market. Streaming is the future as acknowledged by DISH's Ergen. DISH has a planned Web TV service bundle scheduled for launch by end 2014. DTV looks to be a financial engineering with a short term vision and that is IF the deal is nearly or all stock. If a deal occurs and there is much of any debt financing required for a cash portion then it isn't even a good financially engineered move. DTV is dead money on even a moderate term vision and T would be spending ~$50B on a technology their fiber play in the approaching future will cannibalize. Ergen essentially acknowledges satellite is dead money.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Boston, I'm about to bump a topic from yesterday. Believe this is financial engineering move as the cash portion of this deal is funded by AMX sale by T ~$7B, $4.85B wireless tower sale to Crown Castle and $2B Connecticut sale to Frontier. Roughly $500 mil difference in sum of assets sold vs. cash portion of DTV purchase. DTV provides a ton more free cash flow than the listed assets disposed. Substantially more Free cash flow can be used to cover increased debt service(bond payments) that might be incurred in a Leveraged Buyout Offer for VOD. FCF works in multiples when debt leverage is being used. DTV is NOT a strategic growth acquisition but it looks like it may be a strategic financial engineering move. This DTV deal may likely be the means for additional gun powder to go hunting the VOD elephant. The devil is in the details. No new debt and lots of new FCF. VOD bid could very well still be in the cards.
You really are a dense fellow. I've posted it here before. VZ did not buy VOD. The "price" was for 45% of Verizon Wireless. VOD owned 45% of VZ Wireless and sold it's ownership of Verizon Wireless to Verizon Communications. VZ bought out a partner in its wireless division.
VZ will be a hugely better company once the debt is wiped out over the course of five years. VZ will then have massive free cash flow from the 45% ownership grab they didn't hold. A much smarter move than the one in place to buy a satellite TV company that has reached maturity and is set to fade with the onset of streaming video.
Flush with cash. A Motley Fool author has bagged on sustainability of dividend quoting EPS etc without backing out 'Project Spring'. Project Spring is a massive capex move by VOD which greatly jumps capex for three years. VOD has hugely boosted to capex and used cash to position as a bundled provider (previously a naked mobile telecom with exception of CWW), namely an intelligent positioning in fiber plays which are changing the telecom landscape with streaming video and VOIP. The 6 for 11 reverse split brings the stock about in line with prior position based on VZW sale price.
A new low may come indeed as we make a nice technical consolidation and back test of the breakout. Once the backfill is completed at $29 and there should be a nice run to follow. VOD is stupid cheap. VOD's emerging markets continue to get only stronger and India is a sleeping giant starting to stir from its slumber. VOD's position is becoming the envy of the EU market as it positions itself with a best of breed bundle play with fiber internet/TV/mobile. Consolidating markets separates the cream of the crop and VOD is definitely the cream after grabbing top of the line fiber positions in EU with VZ proceeds. A lot of telecoms in EU are debt laden. They will be left in the dust during consolidation as they cannot provide top quality services due to restricted capex ability. This dip is only temporary.
There were rumors once in the not-so-distant past that China Mobile wanted to take a minority stake of between 5-20% in Vodafone. "Chinese state-backed telecom giant China Mobile looks at buying Vodafone stake" January 2014. Some analysts believed it would not happen on the basis that T would buy VOD keeping CHL from getting a deal struck. A Joint Venture with CHL would be interesting given the mobile wallet population exposure SmartPass could be presented to in China.
Stephenson took a wrong turn down a dead end street.
I don't expect as much near term unless the IMF wins its lobbying case presented to Draghi. The IMF push for EU QE. You see EU QE happen AND the £ continue its march to 1.84 by EOY, then fully expect $40 and above. $45 possible. Watch Draghi for possible QE as well as a Bank of England rate hike. Stephenson's opportunity then slips away in earnest.
Nope but a bean counter Okie is going to squander it away. All of the profits for DTV resides in the states. The 1 gbps ISPs coming across the States are the ones who will be upsetting the DTV/T apple cart.