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Verizon Communications Inc. Message Board

smalls_62 833 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Nov 10, 2009
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  • smalls_62 smalls_62 17 hours ago Flag

    Search: Vodafone return of value Verizon. Cash and Ava's stock was given to Vodafone shareholders.

    Part of the rumor of a couple years ago was AT&T buying VOD's EU business with France's Orange taking African operations, AMX taking VOD Americas, and India etc taken by China Mobile. This kind of dissection would bring VOD EU to a small enough bite that Liberty would be the larger. However, it will take the cooperation of several to get Liberty into the position. Liberty needs to move as mobile technology is going to soon render most everything but fiber backbone a redundant asset....and mobile trumps fixed when you start getting +Gbps mobile bandwidth.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 May 22, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    You've been here long enough and know well enough that AT&T has issued the debt. Same for DTV net debt. If you don't know the DTV net debt figure then you have failed as an informed investor having been here so long - this isn't your first day of DD on AT&T. Asking for references is a ludicrous circle jerking klown act to divert away from the core topic. If you are competent enough to find this message board after turning on your computer then you can just as easily find the "documentation" yourself.

    37.5B in new debt that will have little reduction as DTV's cash flow gets eaten up by the structure of the deal. Leaves little room for error as new competition eats into market share/margins. There is obvious bias.....in that your current management is driving AT&T into the ditch with debt to purchase an AOL rerun.

    Call me a troll all you want klown. It doesn't change the facts and you can find the documentation.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 May 22, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    New debt issued $17.5B at an average of 4.5% yield. *actual cash portion of bid consists of $28.50/share on a float of 504MM shares but don't forget fees, legal costs etc. The bond issue had a clause that cancels out the issue if the deal fails. I already quoted the DTV financials for net debt of nearly $21B.

    There are multiple places for this information. What a stupid response asking for documentation.

    Debt leverage already set to go up rather large for the AOL rerun and now you have a new capex black hole in Mexico market and AT&T wanting to commit $9B in additional spectrum purchases in the 600 MHz auction next year. AT&T getting drove into a ditch.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 May 22, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    OTT disruption beginning in earnest later this year and gains big steam as new small cell technology, G.fast technology, and DOCSIS 3.1 all come to market/gets deployed in the next year.

    DTV is costing AT&T +37.5B in new debt with very little net cash flow gain to reduce that debt after new dividend and interest expenses incurred in the takeover structure. Even if synergies exceed 500 million and for some wild reason actually hits 1.5B (+2B is a flying pile of manure, nearly 70% of mergers don't hit synergy targets) it will take a mother lode of years to reduce that debt. A mother lode of years that DTV won't have as market barrier for pay TV collapses over the next couple years bringing in lots of market participants and thinner margins.

    DTV leadership just glad to have found the greater fool as they get taken out and will ride off into the sunset. T may or may not go to $40 on a fool's run. I don't care. It will by short term gain with very costly long term pain for AT&T. DTV "cash cow" is ate up in new dividend costs and interest expense leaving little room to stomach a price war in pay TV coming real soon.

    DTV=AOL rerun

  • Reply to

    Cup and handle breakout?

    by smalls_62 May 21, 2015 5:39 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 22, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    I missed the grand call of AT&T being smart and buying the undervalued VOD. You did write "some". ;-) VOD should be sitting middle $40s without a bid but that takes FX to move back into the 1.60s

  • Reply to

    Cup and handle breakout?

    by smalls_62 May 21, 2015 5:39 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 22, 2015 5:09 AM Flag

    Depends on GBP/USD. FX should never have went sub 1.60 but it did on supposed election concerns in UK. On current FX, $50 minimum takeover. FX rally in GBP up to 1.70 where it belongs?...+$57ish possible.

  • It has indeed hit that VZ consummation mark and since formed a real nice deep cup with handle now if you haven't noticed. I'm not claiming to be king of charts but the trough of the cup (190p) to the top of the cup (240) difference (+50p) is supposed to be added to the top of the cup for the breakout PT of 290p.

    Not overvalued when you consider the sum of the parts. P/E multiple discussion is misleading trash as AMAP growth as well as expansion in EU market with acquisitions not only make the multiple comparison a void, you also have the big capex that will come down in a year.

  • Nomura upgrades Vodafone, says break-up possible amid Liberty speculation

    Vodafone shares continued to advance on Thursday on speculation about a possible tie-up with Liberty Global, with Nomura providing an extra boost by lifting its stance on the stock from 'reduce' to 'neutral'.

    The broker hiked its target price from 185p to 235p, saying it sees a potential break-up of the UK telecoms titan - something which Liberty chairman John Malone has suggested should happen in order to strike a deal.

    "Vodafone's slow standalone progress and potential need to extend its investment phase and reset its dividend should give its board cause to consider alternative routes for value creation," Nomura said.

    While the group has openly dismissed any notion of a split, the broker said that the barriers to a restructuring are "not [...] insurmountable".

    Applying a 50% probability of a break-up has taken Nomura's target price to 285p, with Vodafone's assets worth between an estimated 270p and 300p.

    "Vodafone has openly coveted Liberty Global's assets, but the valuation gap between the two companies remains too wide for Vodafone to bridge through paying an equity-based deal premium," Nomura said.

    "Following Malone confirming his interest in an asset combination, we think the market will now contemplate Liberty Global taking the senior role in deal scenarios. Vodafone's strategic risk discount switches to a strategic premium, which is material for valuation."
    [end of story]

    Vodafone only openly coveted some German cables but none of the rest. That was out of Colao's comments just in the last few months. Nomura finally capitulating VOD is worth a lot more but still about 20p shy on PT and price range.

  • 21 May Vodafone Group Nomura Neutral from Reduce Old PT 185p New PT 235p Upgrades
    21 May Vodafone Group Citigroup Buy Old PT 250p New PT 265p Reiterates

  • Reply to

    finally this stock moved, but so undervalued.

    by jborg4444 May 21, 2015 2:41 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 21, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    Been posting more over on interactive investor since Nige prodded me forever. Will bring some topics here to Yahoo as that mb has been expectedly active lately. Give me a minute or two.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 May 21, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    Ignorant klown needs to learn what Free Cash Flow is AFTER interest expense stands for. Also needs to understand a balance sheet analysis before inserting foot.
    DTV cash & Equivs on hand $8B, TOTAL LIABILITIES $28.9B = +$20B net debt
    DTV Consolidated earnings AFTER interest expense YE2014: 2.756B
    New dividend expense with T share issuance $2B annually
    + 17.5B in new debt issued for cash portion of DTV purchase adds nearly another 1B in annual interest costs = No principal reduction of the $20B net debt assumed OR the $17.B in new debt being issued to come up with the cash funds to DTV shareholders. Your cash flow/earnings are burned up in new dividend expense and interest costs and nothing left for principal reduction of new +$37.5B debt incurred in DTV acquisition.

    Businesses as well as residential market will be getting IPTV. You say "never" but give a hotel customer a fast enough IP connection and they will stream their own choice of programming from the cloud that they would otherwise have watched from home. The pay TV bundler cartel is soon going to find itself surrounded by new competition as competitive barriers fall.

    My numbers are spot on and you misrepresented DTV's net debt. I was even shorting it by nearly $1B but gave it the benefit of rounding down! I understand the future products but you have to understand you must create demand. The security has been in play for years, connected cars only go as far as consumers think they need such. Most will just be playing on their VZ connected smart phone because VZ has a better connection! LOL Your only as good as your infrastructure and T's stinks needing continued improvement....while they take on another capex black hole in Mexico Telco as they cut back capex.

    AT&T market cap pretty much flat for 1, 3, & since Stephenson took charge in 2007. That isn't a growing market cap. DTV has grown their market cap by jacking consumers in a pay TV bundler market that has been shielded by a cartel.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 May 21, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    Spot on Cooki. Two and a half months now.

  • Reply to

    T is cheaper than GE and WFC.

    by osulincat May 20, 2015 4:34 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    Go back to your dolls son. I'm not a woman like you claim and I'm not into rainbows like you. Klown show keeps trumpeting the dividend yield over and over and over. Same sheet, different day. The reasons haven't changed on why the dividend is higher than most - risk.

  • Reply to

    T is cheaper than GE and WFC.

    by osulincat May 20, 2015 4:34 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    Not saying that. Am saying that DTV has enjoyed very limited competition with only two or maybe three pay TV bundlers in given markets. That looks to be changing....and soon.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Not many and why this AT&T yield near 6% yield is NOT worry free.

  • Reply to

    T is cheaper than GE and WFC.

    by osulincat May 20, 2015 4:34 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    Cheaper for a reason.....and kicked out of the Dow for a reason. AT&T looking to make a wrong turn in Albuquerque buying an imploding pay TV bundler model in satellite TV delivery. Mobile phone price wars won't hold a candle to pay TV bundling price wars.

  • smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 4:41 PM Flag

    Price to sales can often be meaningless. Now go compare Free Cash Flow after dividend expense and how long AT&T's debt is amortized over vs. Verizon's. Much of VZ debt cleaned up in the next four years while AT&T's not expected to move the needle much. VZ deserves a much higher enterprise to EBITDA ratio than T because of debt (the "A") structure impacts on EBITDA. VZ would be expected to throw off a mountain of cash once the debt is extinguished while T will wallow, and may even drown taking on DTV's imploding market moat.... VZ's yield bought down by the market because it is apparent the market views VZ safer than risk in AT&T's market strategy and debt structure.

  • Reply to

    wow..

    by treword77 May 19, 2015 3:22 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    Counting your different IDs as different people? LOL You owned AT&T before fall of 2014 as you've been posting here for longer.

    Could pay off home several times over but not a financially smart move when you consider opportunity costs, etc. Something you don't appear to comprehend. Ohhhh the irony of someone making those kind of accusations while using numerous IDs and still single in his 40s. You haven't and aren't going anywhere.

  • Reply to

    Google Cell Service

    by blackcrow78888 Apr 22, 2015 1:56 PM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    Had to go back and find my related post about the FCC granting of the 100MHz block to reference the even earlier push by Google, "with backing from others", to gain free wireless spectrum for general use. Good read: Google makes pus for more freely available wireless spectrum [dated Jan 6 2015 by Dave Neal] .........."a policy environment that removes barriers to investment, discourages monetization of scarcity, and empowers consumers."

    Google and Co pushed for 150MHz block but got 100MHz with FCC commenting any further congestion in the 3.5GHz band would have the FCC holding additional blocks for short term lease/ownership to ease any possible congestion that may pop up in the future. I would have to guess a 100MHz block should be enough for a good five or six localized competitors using the free 3.5GHz band before it gets too congested and would require additional spectrum. Google may not be responding to comment but what the WSJ didn't really touch upon with its local park comment is the huge impact it would have on the removal of fixed line final mile for home services. Massive capex game changer. Multiple Gbps capability without fiber to the home.

  • Reply to

    warmbreeze says.....

    by treword77 May 20, 2015 11:55 AM
    smalls_62 smalls_62 May 20, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    Yep.

VZ
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