36k @ 1.02 waiting for some bad news and a relief rally. But I just have to stop doing this!
Under a buck today now rebounded 11% @ 1.09 yield over 18%... if you ever wanted to buy in today may be your day? I'll be checking up after brewing a fresh pot of black coffee.
Combined with high brent crude prices and no taxes until at least 2015 and the Iona's economics look awesome!
Cold European Winter Could Create Energy Crisis, Cap Gemini Says
By Sally Bakewell - Oct 9, 2013 7:01 PM ET .
A cold winter may plunge Europe into an energy crisis because of the over-reliance on renewable energy and the shutting of natural gas-fired generators, Cap Gemini SA (CAP) said in a report.
Gas-fired generators are running at utilization rates that are too low to meet their fixed costs as grids favor subsidized renewable power, the Paris-based management consultancy said today. About 60 percent or 130,000 megawatts of Europe’s gas-generation capacity is at risk of closing by 2016, it said, citing IHS Inc. (IHS) estimates.
“These plants -- that are indispensable to ensure security of supply during peak hours -- are being replaced by volatile and non-schedulable renewable energy installations that are heavily subsidized,” according to the report, produced with Exane BNP Paribas, law firm CMS Bureau Francis Lefebvre Lyon SELAS and think tank VaasaETT.
Generators are switching to cheaper coal for baseload power as the U.S. exports the fuel amid a shale-drilling boom that has driven up domestic gas demand, Cap Gemini said. The collapse of the cost of carbon credits has strengthened the appeal of the polluting fuel.
The consultancy urged reform of the emissions-trading system to boost the price of emitting carbon. It also called for a coordinated European capacity market to pay plants to ensure there’s enough capacity in reserve at periods of high demand.
“Without longer-term economic incentives to invest in new and vital energy infrastructure and in the face of a declining utility margins and revenue, longer term security of energy supply could be in jeopardy,” Colette Lewiner, energy adviser to Cap Gemini’s chairman, said in the report.
They changed Vantage and I don't get the Level II there anymore but it appears RBC is steadily buying INA.V both shortly before and now after the conference. I suspect (and hope) they come out with a buy rating and we'll get more instutional support.
RBC Capital Markets is an investment bank with 70 offices in 15 countries across North America, the U.K., Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.
Both ALDW and CVRR at 52 week lows, the former doesn't look like a good buy however but haven't followed it.
Still waiting to hear on Iona at RBC Conference. Note how the first sentence describes Iona.
Premier Oil - Simon Lockett, CEO
EnQuest - Nigel Hares, Co-founder and Strategic Advisor Faroe Petroleum -Graham Stewart, CEO
In UK markets there is a focus on valuing companies on production and developing assets, ahead of exploration. Premier continues to focus on its NAV as a growth metric and came back to the UK because offered an opportunity to concentrate on certain basins to make superior economic rent. The Falklands has been an opportunity to apply the similar strategy to a new geography.
Being in a single jurisdiction has an element of risk for EnQuest; seeking additional opportunity would help to to diversify this. The UK North Sea will continue to be the focus for EnQuest.
Faroe believes its success in increasingly competitive Norwegian licensing rounds is due to continued commitment to drilling wells and progressing developments.
The companies believe it is essential to operate their fields effectively. Downtime as a result is unavoidable and likely to continue as they seek to ensure safety and improve operational effectiveness. Over time, a lack of investment has resulted in reduced efficiency and incentives are now beginning to reverse this.
Decommissioning allowances ensure the assets are operated in the right hands. Norway's tax incentives in exploration increase the pace of exploration unlike the UK. Opportunities exist in the management of fields in the North Sea; both reservoir management and the use of new technologies can be used to increase production and should be encouraged with tax incentives.
Really taking a dive but looks like it may go lower, maybe under $20? Don't know much about it always liked NTI better but now out of that too. Don't know about the dist which is the key for these.
8 October 2013, Oil, Gas
Graham Heath, who has been acting as Iona's Interim Chief Financial Officer since April, will return to his duties as VP Corporate Development. Mr. Begbie has been involved in the financing and corporate development of growing companies for over 18 years, most recently as Corporate Development Director on the board of Venture Production plc ("Venture"), a FTSE 250 North Sea focused E&P operator.
At Venture he was responsible for all aspects of M&A activity, resulting in the closing of over forty transactions, as well as being closely involved in the financing rounds that took the company from its 2002 flotation with a market capitalisation of ?183 million to its mid-2009 takeover by Centrica plc at an enterprise value of ?1.6 billion. Mr. Begbie's seven years at Venture saw rapid growth in both production and reserves, and he played a leading role in investor relations activity throughout Venture's life as a listed company.
Mr. Begbie started his business career as a management consultant with PA Consulting Group in London before taking up a senior role in Group Corporate Strategy at The Royal Bank of Scotland Group in early 1992. In 1995 he moved into growth company investing, ultimately as a Director within the London-based private equity group of ING Barings and in 2002 he joined Venture Production plc following a one-year educational sabbatical studying for an MBA at Insead, near Paris.
Comments from the end of August:
from OJ (8/27/13)
* Wow! RBC has Huntington at 42.5 mmbo/e for the Forties and value it at $30 boe due to the high value nature of its reserves. They say that it is producing at 27,000 boe/d now and should hit 35,000 boe/d by the end of the week or thereabouts. Update as of today. Another analyst who see just the Forties as being over 40 mmbo/e. Very nice! Setting up for a possible 75-100 mmbo/e oil field at the end of the day.
Moving on from Huntington:
The Huntington oil and gas field is high value and should payback within a year (in-line with the Catcher and Solan fields). However the centrepiece of the Oilexco acquisition in 2009 has been beset with short term surface issues (gas compression systems and gas venting). The field is back onstream at 27,000boe/d (23,400bbl/d oil) and should increase to full field capacity of 35,000boe/d (30,000bbl/d oil) end August. Provided this timing is met, the revised FY13 63kboe/d production P50 guidance should be achieved.
RBC comments on Huntington CATS (10/7/13)
RBC on Huntington.....thanks to DCJ
Premier Oil (LSE: PMO; Outperform, 570p Price Target)
Following downtime of the CATS pipeline, Huntington-operator Noreco has confirmed that production in September averaged ~17,000boe/d, giving average production of ~11,700boe/d for Q3/13. We have revised our 2013 production forecast slightly for this and expect an update in October to confirm the pipeline is operating and Huntington is producing at full capacity.
All that's on the RBC website:
Conferences & Events
Please note that attendance to our conferences is by invitation only. For more information about a particular event, contact your RBC Capital Markets sales person.
International Oil & Gas
October 8, 2013
* presents at the RBC London conference tomorrow. RBC is buying INA today. Maybe Huntington is coming back up to full throttle? Just a matter of time. Would be nice to get RBC on board with INA as well.
It will happen sooner than later. Best to wait it out.
Already unloaded at Fawley last Thursday, lets start keeping a log of arrivals and departures. Since I don't trust anyone I'll keep the log myself and post on each arrival/departure. I'll charge only a nominal fee and you can send me remuneration via mail.
The Gijon Knutsen:
Arrived at Fawley last Thursday Evening, as reported, 10/3/13 @ 9 p.m. EST.
Departed Fawley last Friday evening 10/4/13 @ 8:30 p.m. EST.
Arrived at Scheveningen Netherlands (The Hague) today, 10/6/13 @ 9 a.m.
They appear to be tacking off the coast of this seaside resort town and are not docked inland. We'll see if the Gijon's destination is updated or maybe another tanker will be used next time. Schevenigen looks like a long way to go if the Gijon Knutsen is planning to return to Huntington. But, I think it came from Antwerp last time, which is in the same area but even farther.
Like today the two volumes are nearly the same. And you know what? I think a significant part of that relative increase in IONAF volume verses INA.V volume comes from us and our board. I think its mostly retail volume from us here in the US and I think the increase in readership of this board is definitely a factor.
Iona Hires New CFO; Restrictions at Huntington Should Lift By Mid-October
Iona announced this morning that the company has brought on Mr. Rod Begbie as CFO. In addition, Noreco released an update on Huntington’s September and Q3 production yesterday.
Based on Noreco’s reports, Huntington ramped up to capacity at the beginning of September but production was restricted during the latter part of the month due to issues related to the CATS pipeline system. The field produced ~16,955 boe/d (2,975 boe/d net to Iona) during September while Q3 averaged 11,680 boe/d (~2,050 boe/d net). This is a significant improvement of ~97% over Q2 production but below our estimate of 2,567 boe/d for the field. We understand the downtime with CATS are an anomaly (historical uptime of 99.2%) and export restrictions should be lifted by mid-October.
Mr. Rod Begbie has signed on with Iona as CFO. Mr. Begbie has 18+ years of experience focused on M&A transactions and was previously with Venture Production plc, which was sold to Centrica for £1.6B in 2009. With this addition, Mr. Graham Heath will return to his role as VP Corporate Development.
Recommendation & Valuation
We have revised our Huntington estimates downward for H2/13, reducing 2013 FFOPS by $0.03/sh. We maintain our Buy recommendation and $1.50 Target, driven from a blend of risked NAV ($1.76/sh) & 3.5x 2014E DACF of $0.44/sh
Interesting timing $100 Million in cash now on the balance sheet with the bond closing and a few days later a new CFO. Here is a comment from Bigbadoil on IV:
"Notice he has lots of acquisition experience ( OJ called it!). He could have his pick of any company in the North sea but picked INA.
He has a vested interest in the company..(nice pun there fella!). If he is happy with his vested options - then we will be too.
Seems to show that INA will be on acquisition trail not the other way round..
Maybe its YOU? How many shares did you buy today?
Google "Rod Begbie corporate development" and go to LinkedIn for a complete resume with picture. I think he's in his late 40's, a mere young'un for these geezers! As noted by posters on IV the've got a lot of paper out there so start thinking exit strategy, maybe a year, maybe two?