Monsanto dropped syngenta bid (similar in proportion to potential buyout in market cap size to pot for ks) and stocks is up 7%. pot needs get with the program and announce they are walking away. i am confident this would pop in similar manner. ks bid is an anchor
Agree to some extent, no one in the market is here to help (analysts, websites, etc), they all have an agenda and are often on other side of trade. Barrons is notoriously incorrect
difference is that potash is a highly profitable company but agree that the price action says no bottom in sight. imo, given increasing divergence from other ag stocks, deal is being priced in, and worst may be still ahead..
big victory today though, it was green for 10 minutes before going red again. ceo must be opening up the bubbly in celebration
selling today with an rsi of 25 is likely mistake but this is likely a good sell on a bounce. ks at 41 was 8B purchase but if went through would be 9-10B with negotation compromise. pot market cap now just 21 b. effects of buy would be devastating to stock price (moreso than current decline)
if it wasnt for wash rule, would sell all pot and buy agu, which is a better diverse value play. moreover, big money loves agu, as opposed to pot, which is being dumped and not held by many big players
over the last 6 months, pot down 30% vs 16% for mos and less than 10 for agu. says it all. we are all dupes, big money has been exiting for months smelling the deal and retailers holding the bag
disagree, the market changes with news is coincidental. price is largely front run given relatively efficient markets before news. more and more, deal looks like it will happen, press releases are just part of the negotiations. with the current of market cap of pot so low, even if its half debt half shares, the dilution would be immense. I was undisciplined here and should have sold when 1) price broke major trendline of 28.9 and 2) likely major acquisition. one of the major rules of investing is never buy a company buying another company which is a significant portion of market cap. it will then be weighed down for years. stuck in pot but hoping for exit at 27
Still small chance of deal, which would be suboptimal for current shareholders, which is weighing on it. It's odd how public this negotiation is, makes one think there is much more going on behind the scenes
Market is about future not past. Future supply will restrict growth, and growth is more valuable than value (i realize the irony there)
Potash still making lower lows, despite deal difficulties. Unfortunately,stock is broken. Should have, would have ,could have sold, when it broke trendline at 29 but will now closely for any bounce. This is looking like an fcx scenario. Capital preservation is critical with commodity stocks.