You can easily block me. Dont blame me because the stock makes lower lows everyday. If you dont think this could easily hit 10, you dont know anything about commodities
sold out of position but would be interested here if 1)ks bid dropped (absolutely will not buy if ks bid goes through and 2) price of 10-12
Thanks, still watching this after selling at 25.5. if it breaks nov 2008 of 20.55, opens the door for early 2000's range around 10-15. oddly enough, this is what has been happening to other commodity stocks, breaking through 2008/2009 lows and going to baseline 15 years ago. There are serious supply issues in the space, similar to oil.
When I buy this at 10-15 next year, you wont be so smug. You obviously have no knowledge of the basics of the stock market. A basic tenet is to never buy/hold a company which is purchasing another company which is expensive relative to its market cap. POT is entering into a deadly area. Look at FCX after there large purchases in the oil industry when the stock was in 30's. Supply issues with oil, debt, and shorts destroyed it. Potash commodity has supply issues, debt issued will be large for purchase, and share dilution would be 100 of millions of shares. Good luck with your beliefs. Hope is not a strategy
Sold in 25's (unfortunately bought at 31) but willing to take long term loss, as ks deal will be a killer in share dilution given the size, likely 10B. Moreover, there will likely be a mass arbitrage to short pot, long ks by institutional players. Finally, supply issues should be headwind for years. Seen this many times over two decades and cutting losses is prudent imo. Never underestimate the ability of a commodity stock to collapse even more in my experience. If deal goes through, will revisit pot couple years from now.
Monsanto dropped syngenta bid (similar in proportion to potential buyout in market cap size to pot for ks) and stocks is up 7%. pot needs get with the program and announce they are walking away. i am confident this would pop in similar manner. ks bid is an anchor
Agree to some extent, no one in the market is here to help (analysts, websites, etc), they all have an agenda and are often on other side of trade. Barrons is notoriously incorrect
difference is that potash is a highly profitable company but agree that the price action says no bottom in sight. imo, given increasing divergence from other ag stocks, deal is being priced in, and worst may be still ahead..
big victory today though, it was green for 10 minutes before going red again. ceo must be opening up the bubbly in celebration
selling today with an rsi of 25 is likely mistake but this is likely a good sell on a bounce. ks at 41 was 8B purchase but if went through would be 9-10B with negotation compromise. pot market cap now just 21 b. effects of buy would be devastating to stock price (moreso than current decline)
if it wasnt for wash rule, would sell all pot and buy agu, which is a better diverse value play. moreover, big money loves agu, as opposed to pot, which is being dumped and not held by many big players
over the last 6 months, pot down 30% vs 16% for mos and less than 10 for agu. says it all. we are all dupes, big money has been exiting for months smelling the deal and retailers holding the bag
disagree, the market changes with news is coincidental. price is largely front run given relatively efficient markets before news. more and more, deal looks like it will happen, press releases are just part of the negotiations. with the current of market cap of pot so low, even if its half debt half shares, the dilution would be immense. I was undisciplined here and should have sold when 1) price broke major trendline of 28.9 and 2) likely major acquisition. one of the major rules of investing is never buy a company buying another company which is a significant portion of market cap. it will then be weighed down for years. stuck in pot but hoping for exit at 27