simply looks like a stock price move which doesnt need fundamental explanation, it happens when pot goes up for no reason too
unfortunate optimism here, i am long but 32 has acted as support for quite some time, if it breaks here, could easily revisit multiyr temp low of 29
pot and mos both increased divi yoy, plus potash commodity demonstrates likely yoy growth in price and volume, but still at multiyear lows. when you take a step back though, the price is still justified given earnings, e.g. pot eps of 2 which translates to price of 30-36. seems like pot is a pretty solid sell when it hits 37 for a reason
Pretty good news in terms of shipment volume, many were surmising huge storages of pot in china which would hurt volumes
On the flip side, I am actually looking for the price to exit my long position if it keeps sinking. I will likely exit my 2 year long position with avg of 31 if it goes below the 29 resistance level. Even if you believe in the long term story, commodities are a dangerous game and you need to be able to exit or else get into fcx kind of situation
Been in the market for over 15 years, best way to approach the currency market for retailers is not to approach it. Invest based on price, value, and growth and don't worry about currencies which fluctuate wildly over periods of time.
canada is very socialistic, see what happened when bhp tried to take over. they would nationalize the company before letting its hq leave canada
divi might be cut, divi is 1.52 and eps is near 2, which is 75% payout, which is really high
Most importantly, 315 is not bad in absolute terms and there is no overt price war as indicated by bloomberg
These fiascos should bring 2015 eps closer to low end range provided by potash at 1.90 imo, so stock is appropriately to slightly overpriced at 32/33. They will need solid contracts/stable potash prices to get back to mid 30's
SQM fiasco, tax increases, no contract/price with india/china-lots of uncertainty here and downgrades likely given eps estimate changes, could see high 20's again unless clarity on international prices
any links or just rumors? this seems to be a classic arbitrage based on acquisition of lnbb and stock price wont go up/down until end of year when resolved
agree, this is terrible news, people who are poor at their job get to keep them, classic bureacracy/nepotism which destroys companies
any explanations other than it seems potash stock seems to go through these beatings every few months randomly? I suppose news out of russia and mosaic of increase in supplies hurts but seems years away
I would just like to reiterate my distaste for the nwbi corporation for buying lnbb with cash and stock, resulting in an arbitrage which is killing the value for long holders for the next year.
like you said in prior thread, even though somewhat long term, ukrali are going to significantly increase supply (at least thats what they say), making it a price war, like in oil, which typically dont end well