Cant make comparisons to 2000's when potash commodity was much higher in price. Like other commodities, price of stock has fallen with underlying commodity. There are also underlying supply issues with potash (even if demand is steady to increasing)
a pe of 15 with no growth is not undervalued, it's properly valued. moreover, the prospects of growth, which is the magic sauce for pe expansion, is not likely into 2016. the spectre of a highly destructive buyout of ks to current shareholders is also still possible. market pricing potash perfect imo
agree, he is still insistent on buying out ks, which seems great in theory since ags are getting killed, but it will be at the expense of shareholders. this will weigh heavily upon the stock near term. upside catalysts are very limited here esp given eps guidance which will likely be 1.8 for 2015
missed on eps and revenue and slightly lowered top end of guidance for 2015 but still highly profitable in tough environment where other commodity stocks are losing money. moreover, eps still should run from 1.75 to 1.95 for 2015 so fairly priced here. will hold my long position
with the market cap now at 22b, a ks buy at 8B would devastating, the potential dilution would ruin eps for years, while legacy projects, etc come up. On the other side of the coin, with their financial metrics, its surprising some entitiy doesnt make a run at buying potash out
as i said last month, market must be spelling the ks deal is going through. the dilution, etc, will kill this stock. smart money is running for hills with huge frontrun while retailers are left asking questions (the asymmetrical fall relative to other ags is the giveaway)
typically because they analyze eps and revise downwards before company (although take it with grain of salt). those calling me crazy for saying we see 22 looking off. I am more dumb though for holding when i know i should have sold when broke 28.8
I use a combo of fundamental and tech analysis. if eps stays near 1.8 for 2015, we are relatively close to bottom assuming pe of 15, and support of divi. The reason commodity stocks are getting crushed is the underlying commodity, whether its gold, oil, etc, are getting killed. POT prices are relatively stable at 300-320, plus potash is a canadian company and the weaker canadian dollar should be helping exports. They said in an old conference call that a strong us dollars helps eps. In the end, it's all about earnings and growth
I got 20.55 as next level of support (originally though 22), will watch er tomorrow and decide whether to sell or not. if guidance lowered again, i am out, will take a larger loss but will confirm death watch. if confirms 1.8-2 eps for 2015 will hold
all commodity stocks including all ag's getting crushed. its's not pot specific but largely due to strong dollar. earnings coming up this week will be interesting, especially if guidance lowered again
it's up 0.1% on cf merger news. commodities are in a bear market, including pot, which is going to be difficult to escape for a while. oil, gold, etc all getting crushed. best news is that pot hasnt broken down more
POT management has said that a strong us dollar/weak canadian dollar helps earnings, which makes sense they export. Moreover, it should hurt mos. these are in a bear market though so doesnt make difference
I dont understand why retailers believe the analysts are putting out honest information here. There is almost always an agenda like making retailers buy or hold on here, when they know the stock is going to tank, so they can short. I continue to be adamant if this deal goes through this is a very easy short. 9B is 36% of their market cap!
Those are 2016 projections and potash has already lowered guidance in 2015, likely 1.8-2. 2016 eps projections appear optimistic, as do they to the street, since if they were really that high, the market would be pricing them in. Dont believe analysts. believe price
Unfortunately, it looks more and more like the deal may go through (at least according to the press and the price action of pot (declining fast) and ks (just shy of the suspected initial price). Press stories are typically propaganda but the prices of the stocks are the best tells, as they price information well in advance of press releases, etc. I continue to hold my long position, but will cut this for sure if the deal is announced, as I am very confident this will become depressed for years as details worked out, etc. My loss will be greater than current but willing to take that risk. My guess is that it goes to 26 if deal announced, and as i have said many times sub 20 in years to come. Best case is that no deal and earnings are strong. Overall, not looking good here.
Canada is pretty socialistic (just look at the tax charge they unexpectedly put on pot when oil revenue came in short). They won't let POT be bought out and the major potential bidders are distressed anyways, like bhp. I was just bringing the idea the company is cheap but realistically it can't be taken over