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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

smaycs4 361 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 41 minutes ago Member since: Oct 14, 2011
  • Reply to

    Dipped my toe back in today at $335.36

    by smaycs4 Dec 30, 2015 12:30 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Jan 1, 2016 6:13 AM Flag

    I meant say, I will make 25% when Biglari breaks even on his $420 buys.

    I hope it doesn't take 2-4 years. Hopefully it comes this year. But, its hard to say. Its almost as if his plan is to alienate the entire market so he can take advantage of it.

    I see it went down to $325.82 to close the year. I think my limit order was 325.01 before I upped it to 335.36.

  • Winner gets bragging rights.
    I don't expect to win.

    Im going to go with 16.97. That presumes they have a bad 4th quarter and no buyout is announced.

    I think it has a chance at trading over 20 but Im not going to predict it for this year.

    I would like to suggest that everyone put wetsnatch on IGNORE and don't even reply to him. If we all do that, he will eventually go away. Maybe even wither up & die.

    RCKY is one of my largest holdings. But, it was over 20 too, And I didn't sell enough. In hindsight, obviously I should have sold OUT.

  • Reply to

    Sellers distributed all the shares

    by smaycs4 Dec 29, 2015 10:31 AM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Jan 1, 2016 5:35 AM Flag

    It seems like that was in the form 4 as his leftover stake. But that's from memory.
    And I just quickly glanced at the form 4. I probably should have just dumped mine for the tax loss yesterday.

    It is interesting that what his face hasn't been back on here calling people idiots.

    Lots of us, including him were for owning this stock.

    At one time, I had a profit of nearly 3 times my money. Didn't cash in.

  • Reply to

    Cash flow $1.60 per share

    by retiredpicker Dec 24, 2015 9:36 AM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Nobody is going to sue over a payday loan. Could they ? Sure, I just don't think it would be economical to do so. Probably just hand it over to bill collectors.

    A friend of mine has a buy here pay her car lot. He has no effective recourse other than repoing the cars.

  • Reply to

    Cash flow $1.60 per share

    by retiredpicker Dec 24, 2015 9:36 AM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    I used to go in an EZPW 15 + years ago when I used to own the stock. A lot of tools, bikes, lawn mowers, TVs, car rims and so forth. I bought something one time, I cant even recall what it was. But they gave me a 90 day warranty in case it quit working. It didn't quit working. But overall, I didn't think the prices were that good for used stuff. I didn't try negotiating with them either.

    Theres an independent near me that I went in a few years ago and they dealt in guns. I think EZPW quit guns way back when.

    At one time, I owned shares of First Cash. Havent paid any attention to what happened to them.

  • Reply to

    Cash flow $1.60 per share

    by retiredpicker Dec 24, 2015 9:36 AM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Payday lenders don't have any recourse either. And title lenders recourse is taking the car....which is like a pawn loan in reverse. But to the customer, its an easier transaction than loading up their TV.

    Of course Ive watched pawnstars. But in the real world, the ghettos where EZPW operates, its not quite as easy to make money. I understand the concept though.

  • Reply to

    Dipped my toe back in today at $335.36

    by smaycs4 Dec 30, 2015 12:30 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    Well, he is going to eventually make money on those $420 buys. And I will make about 25% on my newly bought shares when he does.

    I can wait 2-4 years if need be for 25%.

  • Reply to

    Cash flow $1.60 per share

    by retiredpicker Dec 24, 2015 9:36 AM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    In my area, there are still a lot of payday lenders. All with much smaller stores with lower rents & no storage needs. One local mom & pop chain keeps advertising on the radio trying to lure folks from payday lenders because they have to start a database and limit the number of loans per person per year.

    So they are trying to get title loans & longer term loans up to $999.

    I think payday lenders should be illegal and I know they are in some states.

    I just don't see what competitive advantage a pawn shop has versus a payday loan or a title loan.

    Of course, Im not their target market.

    This is one complicated company with stores internationally and Mexico.

  • Reply to

    Annual Report

    by kurysmv Dec 29, 2015 12:11 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    I was aware of the Transition Period but I am more concerned with his ACTIONS than his words.

    Unless his game plan is to make himself look as bad as possible so he can buy the shares for a song. I went from being a big fan to a big critic.

    I know, I know, we have to give him at least 50 years to prove himself. He doesn't want short-termers. People that might not be alive in 45 years.

  • Reply to

    Buy Puts

    by paam7219 Dec 30, 2015 3:03 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    I think there is a 99% chance this is over. In particular, BSRO isn't coming back after already collecting their $39.5 million. Plus, if they did, they would have to pay carl the same amount.

  • Reply to

    Just another game the MM play

    by josephanastasiw Dec 30, 2015 4:45 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    For many small frys, you may or may not be better off holding. I don't have to pay any fees when the deal is finished. At some brokers, they may charge a fee that is several times a commission for any kind of transaction. Although that might not be for automatic deals like this one. If I recall, Etrade used to hose me on tender offers & such. With Fidelity, Im grandfathered into no fees on such things.

    Most of the time the fees come in when you take up the brokers time. Like with a tender offer. In this case, we don't have to do anything so there shouldn't be any fees. The money will just show up in our account.

    In years past, when I was playing with a much smaller dollar amount, I would sell, pay the commission and buy something that I thought had more upside.

  • Reply to

    Just another game the MM play

    by josephanastasiw Dec 30, 2015 4:45 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 31, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    Its called the time value of money. It might take 2 months to get paid. To some, $18.41 now is worth more than $18.50 in 2 months. Even if its just a month, the question becomes, can you do better elsewhere ?

    Id say yes with tax loss selling.

    But, Im holding because I don't need the money.

    PS, don't talk about market maker conspiracies. You clearly don't know what you are talking about.

  • Reply to

    CFPB Settlement

    by alexalekhine Dec 17, 2015 10:09 AM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 30, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    The problem is those were their most profitable businesses.

    Its like removing gambling from Casinos or Alcohol from bars.

  • Reply to

    Cash flow $1.60 per share

    by retiredpicker Dec 24, 2015 9:36 AM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 30, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    I doubt their stores have $1 million in inventory each. But a quick look at the 10k might say for sure.

    Large Pawn shops are kind of dinosaurs in many ways.

    So its reasonable to wonder how many of them are profitable given so many other options out there nowdays.
    Payday Loans, title loans & so forth.

    And EZPW already got their hand spanked by the government.

  • Reply to

    Annual Report

    by kurysmv Dec 29, 2015 12:11 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 30, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    The last one was written 11/21/14. So we are overdue for one.

    Their website has the last 7 years shareholder letters.

  • Just a fraction of what I sold at $420 back on 7/8.

    With Biglari being able to buy stock next year, You'd have to think it has limited downside from here.

    When I say a fraction, I mean it. Less than 7% of what I sold from $413-430.

  • Reply to

    Share holders and BOD

    by duckycrickhobo Dec 29, 2015 6:18 PM
    smaycs4 smaycs4 Dec 30, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Breakup fees are fairly common. PBY benefited from one years ago when they got $50+ million from Gores for backing out.

    When doing deals, its important to lock the other side in...which is what they would have done with Bridgestone in the event Carl didn't come along & offer more.

    I don't think the initial $35 million was out of line. But the $4.5 million additional one wasn't needed.
    But 4.5 million is just 8.3 cents.

    We don't know how much Bridgestone was willing to pay here. Somewhere between $17 and $18.00 probably. In any event, this was a good deal for us.

    Carl could have kept the deal from being at $15 all along. Instead, he knew there would be a breakup fee involved but he made many millions buying in the open market at $15.57. He wouldn't have been able to do that if he remained under a confidentiality agreement.

  • Paid touts versus unpaid truth tellers.

    The EVIDENCE shows a 13 year track record of VALUE DESRUCTION.

    If you bought stock when the current CEO took over, you would have lost, I don't know 95-98% of your money by now.

  • brandielaw
    1 post | Last Activity: 1 minute 5 seconds ago
    Member since: Dec 29, 2015

  • Without the bought & paid for hype, this stock wouldn't be worth 5 cents.

    Its AT LEAST 10 times overvalued.