They earned 37 cents last year.
Yahoo shows 3 analysts with estimates of .39-.58 for the quarter. (.50 avg)
Those same 3 guys only predict 33-51 cents for NEXT year ending Jan 15. (.38 avg)
Even 65 cents doesnt justify a $15 share price let alone $20 unless they give bullish as heck commentary.
Or unless a bunch of canslimmers continue to pile in.
Thats possible, I guess. We just cant see it yet.
Im holding low priced shares from years ago. Otherwise, I doubt I would put new money on either side.
Its just hard to predict.
The only thing I know is this was not some pump & dump engineered by Becker Drapkin and TUES isnt going bankrupt anytime soon.
Unless they saw what the CEO did in the past and believe he might do it again.
Investors in Michaels made many times their money betting on the TUES CEO & CFO.
If they can do it again, the stock could see $35-45.
Clearly, much improvement is already baked in the share price.
But the shorts talking about them going under in the next year are delusional.
In fact, Id say pretty much everything agnmills says is a flat out lie or crazy delusion.
If you want to say TUES has run too far for the results so far, that's reasonable and I wont argue with you wanting to short it.
To say they are going out of business is just a flat out lie and not a very good one.
A large holder paid up for a HUGE block of shares. My guess is they have a personal relationship with the CEO from his years at Michaels and they think strongly that TUES has a lot of upside.
Of course, their time horizon is longer than 6 months too.
Saying TUES is going out of business just shows that somewhere along the way, someone got fired and holds a grudge.
It wouldn't surprise me if TUES fell back to $10, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it jumped to $19 if they have a great x-mas.
Its difficult for me to believe the 13g holder bought so much stock after such a run if they didn't have a lot of faith the stock was going a lot higher.
And the flat out lies that agnmills has said about Becker Drapkin, that's just compete garbage.
Buy it, short it or sit on the fence. But at LEAST have a somewhat decent argument rather than resorting to flat out lies & no chance near term bankruptcy scenarios.
Would Becker Drapkin have sold out so low if they thought the company could be sold for $8-8.50 in short order ?
I think the board & new mgmt has just now realized they dont know what the heck they are doing and their problems are much bigger than they thought.
Of course, I sold near the lows so what do I know ?
The letter discusses investing in franchising as the recent for SNSs poor results.
He calls it a long term investment.
Will be interesting to see what he does with CBRL.
Does it "let it ride" to avoid paying taxes on the gains ?
Considering that taxes must be paid if & when he sells, maybe holding it for the long term and compounding his gains tax free might be better than the alternative ? Even assuming that CBRL stock gains of recent years will slow a great deal.
I continue to not be a fan of everyone not traveling to NYC for the annual meeting being "out of the loop".
They need to provide a transcript or a webcast or something for the rest of us.
I dont see how it will go 40-50% higher without a blowout x-mas quarter or some very encouraging words going forward.
I mean, $14.50 is already expecting a lot.
2 expect just 33 & 46 cents next year. On top of 9-10 cents this year.
If they dont do materially better, the stocks overvalued at $12.
Unless you think they can do maybe 20 cents, 60-70 cents and $1.00 and then figure it might trade at a 20 multiple but thats 2+ years out and a high multiple.
Using 65 cents next year and a modest 12-15 multiple thats just a $7.80-9.75 stock price.
So the market has priced a lot of expectations in because of the new mgmt.
The best I can reasonable see is a 20 multiple on earnings to be reported in about 26 months.
So if they earn $1 for the year, the stock could be $20.
TUES is going to have to deliver on the sales & earnings front to justify the current stock price let alone go higher.
Its very possible, but its not a sure thing.
I do know the TUES store nearest me is going to get some help because what was an empty grocery store for the last 3+ years is now going be to be a new smaller grocery store and a gym.
And you have to think that being in a shopping center next to a grocery store & gym will get more traffic than it would otherwise.
But, one store isnt going to make or break them.
As they had 4.8% at their last 13d and then sold an additional 395,000+ shares.
They dont have to file 13ds anymore because they are under 5% I dont think but they do have to file form 4s.
I havent heard or seen Credit Suisse's justification for their $17 price target.
I went ahead & sold 25% of my remaining position today.
Im hopeful that they can turnaround this company and the stock goes much higher but prudence dictates one should lighten up after such a run.
My concern is not so much with TUES specifically as it is the market in general.
As previously disclosed, Waterside Capital Corporation (the "Company") is party to a Loan Agreement (the "Loan Agreement") with the United States Small Business Administration (the "SBA"). Under the terms of the Loan Agreement, the Company's then existing debentures were repurchased effective September 1, 2010 by the SBA and a new debt instrument was put into place. The Company's debt to the SBA matured March 31, 2013.
Also as previously disclosed, on May 24, 2012 the SBA delivered to the Company a notice of an event of default for failure to meet the principal repayment schedule under the Loan Agreement (the "Notice"). Under the terms of the Notice and the Loan Agreement the SBA has maintained a continuing right to terminate the Loan Agreement and appoint a receiver to manage the Company's assets.
On November 28, 2013, the Company learned that on November 20, 2013 the SBA filed a complaint in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia seeking, among other things, receivership for the Company and a judgment in the amount outstanding under the Loan Agreement plus continuing interest. The complaint alleged that as of October 31, 2013 there remained an outstanding balance of $11,762,634.58 under the Loan Agreement, including interest, which continues to accrue at the rate of $2,021.93 per day. The SBA, in filing the complaint, requested that the court take exclusive jurisdiction of the Company and all of its assets wherever located and appoint the SBA as permanent receiver of the Company for the purpose of liquidating all of the Company's assets and satisfying the claims of its creditors in the order of priority as determined by the court.
The Company does not intend to contest this action and anticipates that the court will appoint the SBA as a receiver of the Company and, at such time, the officers and directors of the Company will be dismissed.
11/29 02:41 PM
They continue to sell 11-26-11/29 but still own a lot.
The question is...is CBRL at $110 the highest & best use of BHs capital ?
Could that money be better used in other opportunities ?
I own BH shares and Id like to see him take some or all his money out of CBRL if he can do so without killing the share price.
Nov 18 05:26pm MNov 14 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 2,389 Sale at $18.75 $44,793
Sep 10 05:36pm Sep 6 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 400 Sale at $23.00 $9,200
Aug 27 05:01pm MAug 23 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Ackley Robert E VP - Custom Products 1,035 Sale at $20.97 $21,702
Aug 21 04:34pm Aug 19 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 570 Sale at $22.15 $12,626
Aug 16 05:11pm Aug 14 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 700 Sale at $23.14 $16,198
Aug 15 05:04pm MAug 13 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Shew Clyde A VP - Medical Sales, Marketing 4,000 Sale at $22.49 $89,950
Aug 9 05:35pm Aug 7 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Herlong Fredrick C VP - Operations 750 Sale at $21.00 $15,750
Aug 9 05:29pm Aug 7 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 1,200 Sale at $21.18 $25,416
Aug 6 04:39pm Aug 2 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 1,099 Sale at $20.90 $22,969
Aug 6 04:39pm MAug 2 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Ackley Robert E VP - Custom Products 2,000 Sale at $20.68 $41,351
Aug 5 05:19pm Aug 1 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Coggins Richard C CFO 6,000 Sale at $20.80 $124,800
Jan 8 05:55pm Jan 4 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 100 Sale at $19.12 $1,912
Jan 4 05:12pm Jan 2 2013 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 20 Sale at $19.12 $382
Dec 17 2012 Dec 13 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 65 Sale at $19.12 $1,243
Dec 13 2012 MDec 11 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 1,601 Sale at $19.12 $30,611
Dec 6 2012 Dec 4 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Coggins Richard C CFO 1,500 Sale at $19.05 $28,575
Dec 5 2012 MDec 3 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 1,050 Sale at $19.07 $20,027
Nov 28 2012 MNov 26 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 2,000 Sale at $18.92 $37,831
Nov 26 2012 MNov 20 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 1,000 Sale at $19.12 $19,120
DNov 15 2012 Nov 13 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc O Reagan James R VP - R, D, Engineering 2,650 Sale at $19.20 $50,880
Jun 18 2012 MJun 14 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Herlong Fredrick C VP - Operations 500 Sale at $17.75 $8,875
Jun 6 2012 Jun 5 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Ackley Robert E VP - Custom Products 5,000 Sale at $17.75 $88,750
Jun 4 2012 MMay 31 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Henrion Thomas D Director 11,766 Sale at $17.75 $208,847
May 31 2012 MMay 29 2012 SPAN Span America Medical Systems Inc Coggins Richard C CFO 2,417 Sale at $17.73 $42,862
The last several calls have touched on that stuff.
At this point, its a bet the jockey type play. The man has been it before and I think theres a good chance he might do it again and if he does, the stock can go up 2-3 fold from here.
Of course, my position is small.
One thing Im pretty sure of....TUES isnt going away anytime soon the way some posters talk.