The letter discusses investing in franchising as the recent for SNSs poor results.
He calls it a long term investment.
Will be interesting to see what he does with CBRL.
Does it "let it ride" to avoid paying taxes on the gains ?
Considering that taxes must be paid if & when he sells, maybe holding it for the long term and compounding his gains tax free might be better than the alternative ? Even assuming that CBRL stock gains of recent years will slow a great deal.
I continue to not be a fan of everyone not traveling to NYC for the annual meeting being "out of the loop".
They need to provide a transcript or a webcast or something for the rest of us.
Would Becker Drapkin have sold out so low if they thought the company could be sold for $8-8.50 in short order ?
I think the board & new mgmt has just now realized they dont know what the heck they are doing and their problems are much bigger than they thought.
Of course, I sold near the lows so what do I know ?
Unless they saw what the CEO did in the past and believe he might do it again.
Investors in Michaels made many times their money betting on the TUES CEO & CFO.
If they can do it again, the stock could see $35-45.
Clearly, much improvement is already baked in the share price.
But the shorts talking about them going under in the next year are delusional.
In fact, Id say pretty much everything agnmills says is a flat out lie or crazy delusion.
If you want to say TUES has run too far for the results so far, that's reasonable and I wont argue with you wanting to short it.
To say they are going out of business is just a flat out lie and not a very good one.
A large holder paid up for a HUGE block of shares. My guess is they have a personal relationship with the CEO from his years at Michaels and they think strongly that TUES has a lot of upside.
Of course, their time horizon is longer than 6 months too.
Saying TUES is going out of business just shows that somewhere along the way, someone got fired and holds a grudge.
It wouldn't surprise me if TUES fell back to $10, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it jumped to $19 if they have a great x-mas.
Its difficult for me to believe the 13g holder bought so much stock after such a run if they didn't have a lot of faith the stock was going a lot higher.
And the flat out lies that agnmills has said about Becker Drapkin, that's just compete garbage.
Buy it, short it or sit on the fence. But at LEAST have a somewhat decent argument rather than resorting to flat out lies & no chance near term bankruptcy scenarios.
They earned 37 cents last year.
Yahoo shows 3 analysts with estimates of .39-.58 for the quarter. (.50 avg)
Those same 3 guys only predict 33-51 cents for NEXT year ending Jan 15. (.38 avg)
Even 65 cents doesnt justify a $15 share price let alone $20 unless they give bullish as heck commentary.
Or unless a bunch of canslimmers continue to pile in.
Thats possible, I guess. We just cant see it yet.
Im holding low priced shares from years ago. Otherwise, I doubt I would put new money on either side.
Its just hard to predict.
The only thing I know is this was not some pump & dump engineered by Becker Drapkin and TUES isnt going bankrupt anytime soon.
The shares would be worth over $36 !
Interesting. I believe he is under 4% now but he hasnt resigned.
$8 million marketcap, $7 million line of credit is not unreasonable given they have never had a single lending loss.
Figured it would get us back above $2 but it didnt happen.
Some unusual trades recently. Bought on 12/10 and then sold on 12/11 at $5 less ?
INFORMATION WITH RESPECT TO
TRANSACTIONS EFFECTED DURING THE PAST SIXTY DAYS OR
SINCE THE MOST RECENT FILING ON SCHEDULE 13D (1)
SHARES PURCHASED AVERAGE
DATE SOLD(-) PRICE(2)
COMMON STOCK-BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC.
GAMCO ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.
12/11/13 25- 479.6124
12/10/13 20 485.0000
12/04/13 10 478.0000
11/14/13 260- 456.9062
10/24/13 35 415.6500
10/21/13 200 416.3000
TETON ADVISORS, INC.
10/17/13 100 414.6717
This seems like a decent deal from a tax standpoint as instead of booking a gain, I will just get large monthly dividends going forward. Relative to my cost basis. My cost basis on my remaining shares is $1.89.
However, I was hoping for a slightly higher price as NICK went above $17 recently.
(I sold some at $16.99)
That would be a good way of cashing out without taking the price down.
Biglari Group Pushes Cracker Barrel to Explore Options, Including Possible Sale
Biglari to Seek Special Meeting at Cracker Barrel If Board Doesn't Take Action
While I had hoped for a higher price, this deal allows us to keep our low tax basis and PSEC pays put monthly dividends in the 11% annually range.
I wonder if they had a higher offer but chose this one because of the tax advantages & high income going forward ?
And, apparently, PSEC avoids double taxation as it passes earnings on to shareholders.
Im inclined to let my remaining position ride for many more years.
Yes, it could.
A good x-mas and positive guidance during the call could propel the shares a few points higher.
Its not assured. And if they disappoint, the shares could fall a few bucks.
BD still owns $24 million worth. If it was SO overvalued, why didn't they sell out ?
And, why are they still on the board when, apparently they dont have to be per the standstill ?
I think a good case can be made to short a larger, overpriced retailer. Maybe BBBB and go long TUES.
TUES has much more room for improvement, that's for sure.
Means PZZI doesn't really have a competitive advantage.
Cant see them making an offer for his entire stake. Too expensive. But what about half his stake, 10% if he agrees to sit down & shut up & never get active with CBRL again and never go above 9.9% ?
That might be a reasonable resolution for both sides.
BH would go up 20-40 points if he could cash out of half of his CBRL at market.
But, if I were a CBRL holder, I wouldn't like the deal. But we know CBRLs managers don't care about anything but protecting their paychecks.