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My cost basis in my remaining shares is about $4. So Im just letting a very small % of my original position ride.
Ive sold out of I don't know, 87% of my max position in terms of number of shares.
I think TUES can & will command higher than a 10-15 PE when they start to show continued sales gains and EPS. (Low interest rates affect PEs meaning one can pay higher PEs because they still look more attractive than income investments or savings accounts)
I hope to see a good quarter, with good sales gains, some clarity of continued progess of the turnaround and eventually, for them to start growing again. As well as relocating to somewhat bigger stores and better locations.
I think the new team can & will do much better than the incompetent Mason regime if you give them some time.
Im also hopeful that the prior CEO did at least some good such that Rouleau isn't starting from scratch in terms of merchandising.
I think its correct to compare what TUES can become to the valuations of "darlings" like BBBY or DG.
TUES has 2-3 times upside potential while it might have 55% downside. So...200-300% versus 55%.
The best reason to be short TUES is a bet on a large market correction. TUES would almost certainly go down if all stocks did. But, I would argue there are hundreds or thousands of more overvalued stocks with more downside potential.
Looks like they sold another 52,000 or so shares on the 2nd and 3rd.
It appears they had set up a 10b5-1 plan in the past which allows them to sell even during blackout periods.
Interestingly, fidelity is showing a last sale of $14.57 but a bid of $14.92 which is kind of unusual, There were no afterhours trades, just BDs form 4.
In other becker drapkin news, they got PACR sold. I never took a position because I couldn't see the upside.
Its a bet the guy situation.
Do you drive looking in the rear view mirror ?
I grant you the stock may have gotten ahead of itself. But what if it didn't ?
The long term upside is more than the long term downside.
So what ?
Sardar has done very well with most of his investments.
I have huge gains on BH and could have had huge gains in CBRL had I followed him.
Pleading with longs to sell ?
Id be more worried about a short squeeze where you have to cover.
$10-11 wont kill me. Then again, I don't have 3% of my portfolio betting against a guy with a fantastic track record.
I can see why that's bothersome for you.
He wants out or control but even in the worst case, he is sitting pretty.
Id wager he ends up getting out of some or all of his position at over $100. Thats a HUGE win for him even if he has to wait around a few more quarters & collect dividends along the way.
I thought & continue to think that offering him 2 board seats in exchange for a standstill agreement is a win-win situation. But regardless, buying the stock was a great decision for him. One I could have followed him into but I chose not to. I was wrong.
Excluding non-recurring charges, they did .37 last year and the year before.
So doing .35-.40 wont be evidence of anything except more of the same.
The stock price requires improvement in my opinion.
He is trying to negotiate an exit. He has made a lot of money buyng & agitating CBRL. Now its time to harvest his rewards.
CBRL wants him gone too so he is trying to use that to his advantage.
A 3rd party buyout would be the best case. So maybe CBRL goes looking for a white knight or maybe they can arrange a deal where they buy part of his stake and arrange buyers for the rest.
BH has been trading as if a cash out is coming.
It will be interesting to see what he buys next if he gets his warchest.
Now they are contesting it. Might as well spend whats left of shareholder monies.
In the Form 8-K, the Company stated that it did not intend to contest the actions of the SBA. The Board of Directors of the Company has now further studied the Complaint. Moreover, as a result of discussions with the SBA, a review of the Company's actions since 2010, and additional substantive discussions with its advisors, the Company has re-evaluated its initial position. As a result, the Company will take steps to contest the Complaint. There can be no assurance that the Company will be successful in contesting the Complaint or otherwise impacting the timing, circumstances or consequences of the SBA's request that it be named permanent receiver of the Company for the purpose of liquidating all of the Company's assets and satisfying the claims of its creditors.
Biglari instituted that crazy % provision for the use of his name going forward so that effectively makes it impossible to buy SNS away from him without paying him a % of sales going forward.
They cant justify buying SNS or his stake given their argument against using debt for the $20 dividend.
I know they'd like to get rid of him but I cant see how without making themselves look bad in the process.
Unless maybe they could work out a deal with an underwriter to offer up his shares in a public offering.
Never seen something like that before though.
Big is hoping for an exit plan that just doesn't seem to be there. But, BH shares are trading as if it is there.
I think he'd take $100 in a heatbeat. So maybe CBRL offers that and then follows up with a secondary to cover some or most of the cost ?
Will be interesting to see how he cashes out and what he does with the money if he is cashed out.
.35 to .40 this Q isn't evidence of anything. They earned .37 last year.
If they don't do much better, the stocks going lower.
The buyout talk is interesting just because I didn't think it had anything to do with the stocks rise and it WOULD explain its strength.
DG could have the ego to think they could improve & expand it. And maybe some everyday consumables in TUES stores might drive traffic.
Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the Nrf, recently said, "There is a lot of competition in retail, and they have very thin margins. There's going to be a sorting among retailers." Rumors around that sorting process may have already started, and this may be what's fueling Tuesday Morning