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Apple Inc. Message Board

smb_gt 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2015 11:50 PM Member since: Dec 2, 2009
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  • smb_gt smb_gt Apr 29, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    Earnings and outlook were good. For what it's worth, S&P upgraded GLW today from hold to buy...and raised price target to $27.

  • smb_gt smb_gt Apr 28, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    Well said! A few more points..
    1) While the other home builders have missed on earnings, DHI's strong results stand out; DHI is as best-of-breed.
    2) DHI has chosen to aggressively target first-time buyers. Although this market means lower avg prices and margins, this is the fastest growing segment...plenty of revenue and profit to be made.
    3) When the fed starts to increase rates, home buyers will hop off the fence, rushing to buy while mortgage rates are low...knowing the longer they wait, the higher the rates will be.
    4) Unlike multi-national companies, US home builders don't have the worries of currency headwinds.

  • Earnings inline with expectations and outlook reduced by 3-5%...yet stock down over 10%. Apply a normal p/e of 15, then even at the low end of forecast, XRX is a $15 stock.

  • Reply to

    I like my chances!

    by bowersm87 Apr 22, 2015 10:43 AM
    smb_gt smb_gt Apr 23, 2015 8:16 AM Flag

    If bad news has been leaked, the price stabilization is indication that the bad news is already in the stock price. A timely earnings release (next Wednesday before market opens) seems to be good news...no delay, no restatement, no sneaky Friday release after market closes. At this point, good news will make ICON shoot up...even bad news that offers clarity could make ICON rise.

  • Reply to

    Hint of late earnings release?

    by t_mcc Apr 22, 2015 3:35 PM
    smb_gt smb_gt Apr 22, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    They are releasing earnings next Wednesday before the market opens. No delay. No restatement. No cowardly release Friday after market closes. To me, it seems management (those who haven't been fired/resigned) is anxious to set the record straight. Shorts beware.

  • smb_gt smb_gt Apr 21, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    This is "normal" profit taking. There are a lot of people who got in below $25 who are cashing in now. Soon (today?) the new floor should be in...then GE should resume the upward trend. Keep in mind there was a lot of "smart" money buying a few days ago above $28. Those buyers will be rewarded too. Factor in the decent dividend and one of the biggest stock buybacks in history, GE is a safe (albeit conservative) place to park your money for the next couple years.

  • Reply to

    Be afraid...

    by jetcloud100 Apr 20, 2015 4:11 PM
    smb_gt smb_gt Apr 21, 2015 9:25 AM Flag

    Good points. However, with a 20% drop yesterday and 20x normal volume, this stock has already been punished severely. Shorts have made money (helped by rumors and articles by shorts). The "easy" money has been made. On any hint of positive news (or even neutral to negative news that provides some clarity), ICON will shoot up.

  • Reply to

    Be afraid...

    by jetcloud100 Apr 20, 2015 4:11 PM
    smb_gt smb_gt Apr 20, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    With earnings announcement just around the corner, there's not much they can say (quiet period). They did say there is no plan to fill the COO position. Reading between the lines, the company is saying the COO won't be missed. Today's volume and price action look like capitulation. While the price could down further, there is far less downside risk than upside potential. This is the same company/stock that was selling for over $35 a month ago. What's changed? A couple of bad/underperforming executives got the boot. Oversold!

  • Is Google going to pay the shareholders of GOOG the difference between the market price of GOOG and GOOGL? It's been about a year since Google split, so this payment should happen soon...or did it already happen?

  • Reply to

    Keep buying the dips

    by rbrentbyrne Feb 25, 2015 9:53 AM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 26, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    Right. HPQ is better!

  • Reply to

    GoPro

    by awuruonyeobinna Feb 19, 2015 6:52 PM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 20, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    If that were true, everyone would wear a Timex. People will pay-up for quality and prestige. How do you think Apple became largest company in the world?

  • Reply to

    Huge volume but price only $45

    by stokitoki Feb 19, 2015 4:55 PM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 19, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    Did this insider sell all his GPRO stock? Don't think so. Also, if things were as dire as you portend, ALL insiders would have ran for the exit. The vast majority seem to be holding on (even though they could be getting at least twice what they paid by selling now). If insiders aren't content with doubling their money, maybe they know good things are on horizon.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Rally upwards

    by olssongustav Feb 18, 2015 5:24 AM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 18, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    Sorry. I didn't mean that most people were hanging around for the div...just those on the fence...then no catalyst to go higher...so downward trend may continue.

  • Reply to

    Rally upwards

    by olssongustav Feb 18, 2015 5:24 AM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 18, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    I think a lot of potential sellers were hanging on to get the one-time 40 cent dividend. Now that HOLI goes ex-div tomorrow, we'll see the stock price fade tomorrow and gradually drift lower for awhile. Long-term, you might be right, but I'll wait for $18 to buy.

  • At first glance, a 20% sell-off looks like stock is on sale. On the other hand, the company just lowered guidance by 30%, so expect FOSL to go lower. The reduced guidance also kills the growth trajectory.

  • Reply to

    AMBA fall - Reason

    by hitman4gk Feb 14, 2015 10:16 AM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 16, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    The sell-off seems to be from someone knowing bad news is coming. Perhaps program trading below the 50 DMA (robot selling) factors into the sell-off. All this chatter about Canon buying Axis and drone limits does not explain the sell-off. Sadly, though, these items provide cover for "insiders" to sell without impunity. Another explanation for the sell-off is people locking-in their profits before earnings (as AMBA is still up huge from $23 in May 2014). Of course, if AMBA is about to report blowout earning and strong guidance, it seems unlikely that the stock would be hit this hard as "insiders" would be stepping in to buy.

  • Looks like big players know some bad news is coming. Short interest of 33% also suggest bad news coming.

  • Reply to

    this back and forth is very healthy

    by jedgarhoover_andfriends Feb 12, 2015 12:01 PM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 12, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    I have no position in AMBA. If I were fortunate enough to already be AMBA, I'd probably sell half before earnings to lock-in some profits. As is, I'm waiting for a pull back to get in. It seems that most high PE stocks with large short interest are prone to a big sell-off upon disappointing guidance. Unlike most posters, I realize my posts do not move the stock price. I'm just looking HONEST opinions, pros and cons, from others.

  • What is scary about a high PE stock like this is...
    For earnings announcement to propel the stock up, it takes a solid earnings beat AND strong guidance. Even if there are blowout earnings, the stock price will go down unless there is raised guidance. So there are 3 chances that things can go wrong (bad earnings, bad guidance, or both) and only 1 chance that things go right (good earning and good guidance). The other thing that scares me is the high short interest...the "smart" money is usually right as the deck is stacked against the honest "normal" investor/trader.

  • Reply to

    this back and forth is very healthy

    by jedgarhoover_andfriends Feb 12, 2015 12:01 PM
    smb_gt smb_gt Feb 12, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    True, but this adds to the anxiety of shareholders. What is scary about a high PE stock like this is for earnings announcement to propel the stock up, it takes a solid earnings beat AND revised upward guidance. Even if there are blowout earnings, the stock price will go down unless there is positive guidance. So there are 3 chances that things can go wrong (bad earnings, bad guidance, or both) and only 1 chance that things go right (good earning and good guidance).

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