I like that you made it though a huge paragragh with only one typo, but you correction one-liner has two typos (speel and keybored).
This stock was near $12 less than a year ago and has gone down steadily ever since. I don't see what has changed fundamentally to justify a 70% hit to stock price. You have certainly been right about downside pressure, but AMZG sure "feels" oversold. This company isn't bleeding cash, and the current share price is below tangible book value. Also, as you mentioned, this industry is always consolidating and AMZG "feels" like a great takeove candidate. Just because it hasn't been bought yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. I noticed the share price spiked after the company updated its production update, so it was apparently good news. What happened? Now it's back to a 52-week low. Hard to figure...but down here, the upside has far outweigh the downside, right?
Thanks for the keen insight. That's sarcasm, in case you couldn't tell. Actually, SALE has been trending up since your post. I have no intention to bail. In fact, I'd buy more if I weren't already all in.
Don't you ever get tired of posting the same #$%$?
I think the rise is the the "normal" continuation of the upward trend. Keep in mind, EXAS is still below the pre-market $19 on the day of the FDA approval & CMS recommendation. EXAS has been closing at new highs everyday...as some shorts finally give up and new buyers get onboard. It's easy to do the math and project annual revenues in the Billions. Anyone thinking the reimbursement announcement is going to bring down EXAS is missing the facts (asking price of $502 was justified via a breakdown of costs and $502 is a bargain compared to the huge expense of not catching colon cancer early). I'm not saying that $502 will be approved, as there may be some discounting (to maybe $400-450). At this point in the product cycle, below $20, EXAS is a bargain. And that doesn't take into account the potential pipeline of other cancers being successfully tested via EXAS' doo-doo testing. And with big pharma struggling for revenue growth, it wouldn't be surprising to see multiple takeover offers.
While doing some bottom fishing, I was drawn to COUP. Then I looked at similar companies (internet/mobile couponing) and found an equally beaten-down stock that seems to have better fundamentals. Before investing/trading COUP, you might want to check-out SALE (RetailMeNot). SALE is down 60% from its high. Unlike most speculative stocks, SALE is already profitable (for 3 quarters in a row, +19 cents for this qtr)...and growing fast enough that the forward PE is only 15.
Here are some reasons. Of the luxury brands, KATE has the the best growth, yet the marketcap for KATE is lower than KORS or COH. 25% correction was good flush-out of profit takers. KATE was at all time high after reporting another blowout quarter. Capitulation selloff sets the stage for the next move up. Strong earnings and cc confirmed incredible growth. A small decrease in margins just an excuse for profit taking, panic selling, and algorithms. Oversold. Stong fundamentals remain intact and the long-term trend is still up.
The "sell the good news" pullback from the $19 peak was a nice flush-out of profit takers. Today's continued drop then reversal to green is a good sign for longs and a signal for shorts to exit. EXAS should march higher from here.
Even at "list" price of $599, this test is a bargain. Far cheaper than colonoscopy...and it's infinitely cheaper to catch cancer when it's curable. That said, it's reasonable to expect reimbursement to be $350-450.
For those who were waiting to geting into KATE, today's news and chart are beautiful. The results beat expectations and were worthy of the moving the stock price higher. A huge overreaction to margin pressures led to panicked selling. Anyone lucky/patient engough to have a cost average below $30 will be delighted when this stock is above $45 by Christmas.
Actually smart traders would sell SSYS on today's pop and load-up on DDD while it's down.
The DDD bashers on this board said SSYS would disappoint and take DDD down further. Now what? The demise of 3-D printing has been (again) proven false. Even before SSYS's good numbers, I'd say DDD's 77% backlog growth was proof that 3-D tech is still growing. You should have bought 2 days ago, but there is still time to ride DDD back to $75+.
Pops like today help put a floor in the stock price. There are many kicking themselves for not buying yesterday, so if there is another pullback, buyers will step in. This could also be the start of a trend back up. If it holds today, more shorts will take their profits and look elsewhere.
So if a stock is trending down, it's going to zero? Of course not. At some point, a stock's price overshoots the "right" price. You're correct that fighting the trend is usually a bad idea, but at some point the bottom will be in and the trend will reverse. In the case of DDD, the slightest sign of this is going to cause a short squeeze. Below $50, shorts are playing with fire.
Speaking of momentum stocks, about a year ago, Tesla was overhyped to $200, then it pulled back to $120. Now Tesla is around $250. DDD is to 3D printing what Tesla is to electric cars.
Personally, I don't put too much faith in any analyst. For what it's worth, Deutsche Bank just named DDD as a top pick for 2014..."convinced that 3D Systems is a winner and have a large $80 price target for the stock. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is posted at $59.68."
If 3-D printing was going away, you're right. But 3-D printing is just gaining traction as a "necessity" for many companies. Bad results for 3-D companies is actually good for the Best of Bread 3-D company, which is DDD. Don't forget, DDD's earnings announcement mentioned a 77% increase in bookings backlog.
Yes, in hindsight, it's very easy to see that $97 was a perfect exit point. The future prospects for DDD are as good now (probably better) as they were then. It's a matter of picking an entry point. Currently trading for less than half $97, DDD seems like a bargain. The correct prce for DDD depends on future earnings and earning growth. 3-D printing is in the early stages of development and usefulness. As 3-D printing becomes a "necessity" for big business, DDD will top $100...on a combination of its own merits and takeover rumors (HP, IBM, etc.). Don't forget the earnings report showed a 77% increase in backlog. That bodes well for future earnings and growth.
DDD posts Q2 operating EPS of $0.16 vs. $0.20, missing our $0.16 estimate. Sales grew 25%, on rising demand for printers, materials and services. We note 30% materials growth and 38% service growth, but we believe organic revenue growth of only 10% is a negative data point. However, we see this more than offset by a 77% rise in bookings and improving backlog. Despite recent margin compression, we believe Q2 is the trough. We see recent acquisitions, including last night's Simbionix announcement for $120 million, as positives. We also note short interest ratio over 30%.