I agree waiting isn't fun. I think there is a great chance we get the acquisition and divvy on earnings day, but if we don't I expect the ship acquisition very soon after. The catalysts of sustainable large dividend, accretive refinancing, and rapid dividend accretive fleet growth are imminent.
1. They have the cash TODAY to make a 8000 TEU ship acq adding $8m on incremental EBITDA. They only need $2m on incremental EBITDA to meet their 2.25x Fixed Coverage Ratio covenant - triggering dividend restart.
2. If they wanted they can borrow an additional $50m cash at 50% LTV on their 2 unencumbered ships.
3. They will announce the dividend plans the same day they announce the ship acquisition (per mgmt.)
i expect the company to acquire 1 more ship within a month or two. The dividend restart will be announced the same day the ship acquisition is announced. I think it will be between .40-.50/sh annualized to start and will increase from there
They have plenty of cash. No one will tender bonds at the 102 call price when the current market is 104/105, so they will finish the June quarter with $46m of cash. They can also borrow at 50% LTV on their $50m wholly owned ship. So they have $25m + $46m = $71m cash available at the end of June. They need to acquire only $5-6m of incremental ebitda to be in comfortable compliance with their fixed coverage ratio. That would cost them around $30-$35m. Cash is not an issue!