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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

sme20_98 16 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: May 10, 1999
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  • When the sub shares are converted to common , total common will increase 52,500,000 units from 39,375,000. Based upon the last distributable income numbers, if the two had been combined we would have seen a pay out of .565 per share instead of .623. Not much of a difference and still north of 20%. I'll take it. The larger issue is always going to be production levels and once management is fulling sharing again(sub shares) incentive to maximize production might actually be a good thing. Not saying they aren't doing their best now, but certainly will be in the best interest once the shares convert. JMHO of course, but I am looking forward to the conversion. At these prices PER is a strong buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Disappointed it didn't increase based upon last qtr's earnings, but I know these guys like doing the year end special dividend--i would think if Sept qtr is strong, we will see a special; Div in December as we have in the past. Makes investment in the stock all the better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Whats happening today???

    by sme20_98 Sep 12, 2014 11:31 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 12, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    So the market reacts to something it already knew just because the FED confirms it?? Old news, seems like it should be something other than that.

  • Anyone have an idea why the large blocks are selling--especially ahead of Div announcement which should easily be .65 as last qtr? Doesn't make sense

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Does the rate decrease by 50 basis points mean we just saved $4 million in interest rate charges being 800 million is already committed? Decreases in interest rate expenses were hinted to on the CC call in the questions and answers as on way to boost net income--is this the answer?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 2, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Bove is out with a story calling for a mortgage crisis in the next six months. I'm thinking this has something to do with the negative REIT market

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking ahead

    by criminalmindscraft Aug 27, 2014 2:09 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 27, 2014 8:02 AM Flag

    I don't disagree that management is trying--they are setting up PSEC for the long term when interest rates begin to rise. In the mean time, as rates fall(as they did in the most recent qtr) earnings will suffer as liabilities are pretty much fixed rates. But as far as management putting their money where their mouth is, just remember the new purchases they are making are almost all from reinvested dividends and not "new" money from their pockets. All be it, they could keep their dividends and not invest anything, but they are hardly taking the plunge for PSEC and making huge investments--thats not happened yet. The most recent purchase from Barry was merely a total of his last three months of dividends. When i see some real money, I will believe they are all in, not that his reinvestement isn't real money--he owns a significant number of shares, but it is still just from the dividends he receives from PSEC. Without a huge deal for origination value or a rise in interest rates, PSEC will be stuck in the mid 20's for qrtly earnings and will probably see a dividend decrease in 2015. I am still going to hold, hoping for the deals to pick up pace, kind of the same i think management is hoping for when they put a hold on future dividend announcements.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Everyone should read the Transcript.

    by trumpace Aug 26, 2014 9:02 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 26, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    I agree, and rates have actually decreased in the most recent qtr, even with the knowledge that the FED will start to increase rates next year. What bothers me at this point is the fact that the next 3 monthly dividends were not announced as they have been with earnings for at least the last two qtr's. Excess NII is down to 9 cents and that will last us about three months at the current div rate with NII of 25 cents. Reliance on origination income was supporting us the last few qtrs and that has slowed. Hope we are not looking at a DIV cut in the short term until rates increase next year, I am thinking(hoping) they will stay with the rate through next year and see where rates go. This could create a hit on Book value in the short term, but i would rather keep the DIV in the short term while interest rates adjust and begin to provide NII.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 22, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    Just trying to show that the current common dividend IMHO is safe. I don't see production getting any worse.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Looking at Oil and natural gas prices so far this qtr, they are the same or higher than last qtr. Natural gas is actually much higher, currently @ $3.92 vs a last qtr average of $3.42. Thus royalty revenue should be increasing enough, even without new production to full fill dividend requirements. This stock IMHO is way oversold here--I'm in for a bunch. With a 23% dividend that currently seems secure, it won't take long to get my investment back. Just because some of the new wells were slow producing, doesn't mean the old ones are dead, in fact royalty income is increasing qtr over qtr. This selling is way over done in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Guidance from Q2 Conference

    by rdravin Aug 11, 2014 11:37 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 13, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Except for the fact that they have already booked $3.39 of the $5.50. THAT LEAVES EARNINGS OF $2.11 PER SHARE TO BE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE NEXT TWO QTrs. An average of $1.06 per qtr doesn't look very promising. I was a fan, but the writing is on the wall--earnings are going down qtr over qtr and the stock price is going to ultimately reflect that. IMHO use any strength to get out.

  • Reply to

    .42 cents doesn't seem like a blow away

    by sme20_98 Aug 11, 2014 7:46 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 11, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    Sorry to give you the news pal, but it is the lline that matters. Revenue growth in the 100%'s is great except when costs are rising just as fast. And now the companies revenue estimates for the third qtr are announced and they are increasing less than 10% qtr over qtr--looks like things are beginning to slow. All i am saying is the pricing on this stock says revenue and earnings should be jumping out of the park, not growing less than 10 %. I'm reading more than one line, and the momentum players will jump this ship very soon in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It is--it's just way ahead of its value in price per share. Probably worth $50 tops at this point in my opinion. To continue higher with qtr over qtr revenue growth of less than 10% expected doesn't seem to make sense. Buyers are really looking forward on this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    BITA Earnings...BEAT

    by lawstuff22 Aug 11, 2014 8:10 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 11, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    IFRS earnings were .42 per share. Adjusted was .48, if that is what the analysts were using, then the article is accurate. Still not much for a $65 stock. Also looks like third qtr revenue is going to slow--high enf is 92 million vs the $84 million they just posted--only a 10% increase? not alot of growth in the qtr to qtr number for a stock that is tripling in price.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I just don't get this stock. Reminds me of the internet bubble stocks. At some point the earnings will have to be reflected in the stock price, when that happens, watch out!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This stock is so over bought--trading 25 times 2015 earnings already. Trades as if earnings are tripling or something. Granted they are growing at a good pace, but this is ridiculous. My puts are in, if they don't blow earnings away, momentum will crash quickly. JMHO of course.

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