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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

sme20_98 29 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: May 10, 1999
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  • xum53 continues to post non-factual posts about NYMT in hopes of lower the price as he/she is short the stock. As always, do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    todays drop

    by jay_money_01862 Sep 25, 2014 9:52 AM

    On December 22, 2011 they declared a .25 cent regular dividend and a .10 special dividend. Stop lying to the board--your comments no longer have any credibility.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    todays drop

    by jay_money_01862 Sep 25, 2014 9:52 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 11 hours ago Flag

    Just because there are short players who try to play the dividend stocks after ex date for drop offs, doesn't have anything to do with the health of the acual stock. NYMT had a strong qtr, and there is no reason to think they won't follow it up with another. JMHO of course, but they had serious earnings and a strong increase in book value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EX-Div Date ?

    by ab6pn Sep 11, 2014 3:24 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 11 hours ago Flag

    Earnings last quarter were 34 cents and book value rose by 35 cents or over 5% increase. NYMT had a blow out quarter. We are probably looking at a special dividend in December on top of the regular 27 cents--JMHO, but look at the earnings. Maybe you are looking at the wrong stock--OR maybe you are one of the 12% shorts trying to make a quick buck in between Div's. Either way, your statement of a dividend cut is not supported by the facts--EARNINGS!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    todays drop

    by jay_money_01862 Sep 25, 2014 9:52 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 12 hours ago Flag

    10 cents was paid in 2011--look at div history--I'm sure of it because I collected it. Get your facts straight before you post here shorty.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    todays drop

    by jay_money_01862 Sep 25, 2014 9:52 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 26, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    NYMT does not increase div, they will pay a special div in the last quarter. So far earnings have outpaced div nicely, so at least 10 cents extra should be expected--JMHO of course.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Screaming Buy

    by blassy987 Sep 25, 2014 2:11 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 26, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    Your missing out on my analysis on several fronts. First, the future production is priced using current pricing, not hedged pricing, so expiring hedges are meaningless in my comments. If you think oil prices are going to come crashing down, then you have a point(not going to happen), but hedges are meaningless to my numbers. Secondly, the estimates take depletion over time into consideration--these are numbers based upon total production through the life of the trust--a big picture @ 12/31/2013 if you will--. so your argument on depletion changing the analysis is erroneous. Thirdly, i have already commented on the subordination impact in another post--currently, if you look at the last quarterly payout, if all unit holders would have shared equally, the payout would have approximated 56 cents. Currently, we got 62,3 cents, not a big difference, certainly not enough to drive the price as it has the last few days. Sorry, but in MHO your off base with your comments because of my statements above.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sme20_98 by sme20_98 Sep 26, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    The amended 10K made no number or production or estimate changes, only changed some audit opinion language regarding the years of analysis--a clarity item--no numbers were impacted. Really a non-event, but it might have spooked some people. Current future value production numbers are looking to payout over $21 per share, plus the trust would have to settle with unit holders at the end for the value of product still in the ground when the trust ends. IMHO I don't see the risk @ below $10 for these reasons.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Screaming Buy

    by blassy987 Sep 25, 2014 2:11 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 26, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    An amended 10K was filed recently and i think it renewed the thought that because the last two calendar years showed downward production estimates that the stock might be overvalued. Still at the adjusted estimates, the trust will deliver over $21 in payout per unit, so it seems like a very slight risk at $10 or below . New wells have been drilled and if they have any increase in production/pricing, stock price will soar. I think all bad news is priced in at this point. Production would really have to take a hit to justify any lower pricing from here. The closer we get to a dividend announcement at the end of October, the closer to $12 we will get again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's the bad news?

    by mikeestewart46 Sep 25, 2014 11:22 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 25, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Thus why I wouldn't have a stop on a stock like this--unless you are watching and can get back in, because there is no negative news triggering the price decline--just some traders moving on for the short term. They will be back at the end of October.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Screaming Buy

    by blassy987 Sep 25, 2014 2:11 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 25, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    I added 4000 new shares. This price is great based on the expected dividends, which have been met for the common holders in the recent past.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wake up dumb money buying

    by sjsrhs Sep 25, 2014 3:12 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 25, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    This type of stock doesn't trade around the DOW. No dividend announcement until the end of October, so some are moving into other areas for now. They will return in the latter half of October before the Dividend announcement and the price will move higher--probably back to 12 at that time. No catalyst to own right now. IMHO, It is a great buy at these levels--you just have to stomach the the price swings--can be tough, but will start to swing higher in two to three weeks. JMHO of course, but no reasoning to be trading lower other than no dividend for another month.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Div stays @ .27

    by sme20_98 Sep 19, 2014 9:23 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 22, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    December of 2011 and extra 10 cents was paid

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • When the sub shares are converted to common , total common will increase 52,500,000 units from 39,375,000. Based upon the last distributable income numbers, if the two had been combined we would have seen a pay out of .565 per share instead of .623. Not much of a difference and still north of 20%. I'll take it. The larger issue is always going to be production levels and once management is fulling sharing again(sub shares) incentive to maximize production might actually be a good thing. Not saying they aren't doing their best now, but certainly will be in the best interest once the shares convert. JMHO of course, but I am looking forward to the conversion. At these prices PER is a strong buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sme20_98 by sme20_98 Sep 19, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    Disappointed it didn't increase based upon last qtr's earnings, but I know these guys like doing the year end special dividend--i would think if Sept qtr is strong, we will see a special; Div in December as we have in the past. Makes investment in the stock all the better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Whats happening today???

    by sme20_98 Sep 12, 2014 11:31 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 12, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    So the market reacts to something it already knew just because the FED confirms it?? Old news, seems like it should be something other than that.

  • Anyone have an idea why the large blocks are selling--especially ahead of Div announcement which should easily be .65 as last qtr? Doesn't make sense

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Does the rate decrease by 50 basis points mean we just saved $4 million in interest rate charges being 800 million is already committed? Decreases in interest rate expenses were hinted to on the CC call in the questions and answers as on way to boost net income--is this the answer?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • sme20_98 sme20_98 Sep 2, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Bove is out with a story calling for a mortgage crisis in the next six months. I'm thinking this has something to do with the negative REIT market

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking ahead

    by criminalmindscraft Aug 27, 2014 2:09 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 27, 2014 8:02 AM Flag

    I don't disagree that management is trying--they are setting up PSEC for the long term when interest rates begin to rise. In the mean time, as rates fall(as they did in the most recent qtr) earnings will suffer as liabilities are pretty much fixed rates. But as far as management putting their money where their mouth is, just remember the new purchases they are making are almost all from reinvested dividends and not "new" money from their pockets. All be it, they could keep their dividends and not invest anything, but they are hardly taking the plunge for PSEC and making huge investments--thats not happened yet. The most recent purchase from Barry was merely a total of his last three months of dividends. When i see some real money, I will believe they are all in, not that his reinvestement isn't real money--he owns a significant number of shares, but it is still just from the dividends he receives from PSEC. Without a huge deal for origination value or a rise in interest rates, PSEC will be stuck in the mid 20's for qrtly earnings and will probably see a dividend decrease in 2015. I am still going to hold, hoping for the deals to pick up pace, kind of the same i think management is hoping for when they put a hold on future dividend announcements.

    Sentiment: Hold

APO
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