A new supplier heard from--Can't see how ppb of WTI can stay over $35 without big hedges buying up the futures. That has to get old soon with no real demand growth or supply cuts.
I have to agree that rig count will start to move up again. Just the news out of WLL is enough to stop the losses going forward.
yet oil remains positive--big money moving the oil markets. Fundamentals are meaningless at this point. No justification except big guys throwing money to the long side. Time to get out of the oil trading business--when they stop following fundamentals , it's just to risky.
WLL , with investment from an un-named third party is going to begin opening back up some inactive fracking wells. If prices stay in the mid 40's this will be the trend, and supply will be in excess by more than it is now. Also, data out of China on gasoline usage was poor--demand was little changed,, not good from the fast growing--or should i say fast slowing economy. Oil is clearly no longer trading on fundamentals.
The question will be"will big money continue to pump the futures up by buying long"? It is the only reason oil prices are where they are today. These last two weeks are about the futures supply and demand and not about oil's supply and demand. Based upon oil supply, price per barrel should already be below $40. But so far trader's are ignoring that and bidding the futures prices up. Scary when the fundamentals don't seem to matter anymore.
Today's action doesn't seem to be following your thesis, thankfully i didn't listen to you. Also, the stock is held in an IRA account, so taxes, at least for now , are not part of the decision. Any analysis you speak of should always factor that possibility in--as I have. But thanks for the comments.
And if i just bought a few moments ago, i would be getting the stock at a great price and the dividend increase next week. Oh wait--I did!
Davis, you know we continue to disagree on this--if they could afford to pay a higher dividend--they would. They absolutely can't because they are so hand-cuffed with access to capital, the whole reason they CUT the dividend by 50%. Also, the dividend could still be cut further to accomplish your 8% goal on a $3 PPS. Question is, how much capital are they in need of? The question of whether they NEED to pay out more is a muddy one, but always remember, if REIT rules would come into play and require a higher payout, they could always choose to pay the excise tax and keep the capital for investment. There is no such thing as "They are forced " to pay a higher dividend--they always have options not to.