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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

sme20_98 12 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: May 10, 1999
  • Reply to

    Looking ahead

    by criminalmindscraft 19 hours ago
    sme20_98 sme20_98 13 hours ago Flag

    I don't disagree that management is trying--they are setting up PSEC for the long term when interest rates begin to rise. In the mean time, as rates fall(as they did in the most recent qtr) earnings will suffer as liabilities are pretty much fixed rates. But as far as management putting their money where their mouth is, just remember the new purchases they are making are almost all from reinvested dividends and not "new" money from their pockets. All be it, they could keep their dividends and not invest anything, but they are hardly taking the plunge for PSEC and making huge investments--thats not happened yet. The most recent purchase from Barry was merely a total of his last three months of dividends. When i see some real money, I will believe they are all in, not that his reinvestement isn't real money--he owns a significant number of shares, but it is still just from the dividends he receives from PSEC. Without a huge deal for origination value or a rise in interest rates, PSEC will be stuck in the mid 20's for qrtly earnings and will probably see a dividend decrease in 2015. I am still going to hold, hoping for the deals to pick up pace, kind of the same i think management is hoping for when they put a hold on future dividend announcements.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Everyone should read the Transcript.

    by trumpace Aug 26, 2014 9:02 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 26, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    I agree, and rates have actually decreased in the most recent qtr, even with the knowledge that the FED will start to increase rates next year. What bothers me at this point is the fact that the next 3 monthly dividends were not announced as they have been with earnings for at least the last two qtr's. Excess NII is down to 9 cents and that will last us about three months at the current div rate with NII of 25 cents. Reliance on origination income was supporting us the last few qtrs and that has slowed. Hope we are not looking at a DIV cut in the short term until rates increase next year, I am thinking(hoping) they will stay with the rate through next year and see where rates go. This could create a hit on Book value in the short term, but i would rather keep the DIV in the short term while interest rates adjust and begin to provide NII.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 22, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    Just trying to show that the current common dividend IMHO is safe. I don't see production getting any worse.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Looking at Oil and natural gas prices so far this qtr, they are the same or higher than last qtr. Natural gas is actually much higher, currently @ $3.92 vs a last qtr average of $3.42. Thus royalty revenue should be increasing enough, even without new production to full fill dividend requirements. This stock IMHO is way oversold here--I'm in for a bunch. With a 23% dividend that currently seems secure, it won't take long to get my investment back. Just because some of the new wells were slow producing, doesn't mean the old ones are dead, in fact royalty income is increasing qtr over qtr. This selling is way over done in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Guidance from Q2 Conference

    by rdravin Aug 11, 2014 11:37 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 13, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Except for the fact that they have already booked $3.39 of the $5.50. THAT LEAVES EARNINGS OF $2.11 PER SHARE TO BE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE NEXT TWO QTrs. An average of $1.06 per qtr doesn't look very promising. I was a fan, but the writing is on the wall--earnings are going down qtr over qtr and the stock price is going to ultimately reflect that. IMHO use any strength to get out.

  • Reply to

    .42 cents doesn't seem like a blow away

    by sme20_98 Aug 11, 2014 7:46 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 11, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    Sorry to give you the news pal, but it is the lline that matters. Revenue growth in the 100%'s is great except when costs are rising just as fast. And now the companies revenue estimates for the third qtr are announced and they are increasing less than 10% qtr over qtr--looks like things are beginning to slow. All i am saying is the pricing on this stock says revenue and earnings should be jumping out of the park, not growing less than 10 %. I'm reading more than one line, and the momentum players will jump this ship very soon in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It is--it's just way ahead of its value in price per share. Probably worth $50 tops at this point in my opinion. To continue higher with qtr over qtr revenue growth of less than 10% expected doesn't seem to make sense. Buyers are really looking forward on this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    BITA Earnings...BEAT

    by lawstuff22 Aug 11, 2014 8:10 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Aug 11, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    IFRS earnings were .42 per share. Adjusted was .48, if that is what the analysts were using, then the article is accurate. Still not much for a $65 stock. Also looks like third qtr revenue is going to slow--high enf is 92 million vs the $84 million they just posted--only a 10% increase? not alot of growth in the qtr to qtr number for a stock that is tripling in price.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I just don't get this stock. Reminds me of the internet bubble stocks. At some point the earnings will have to be reflected in the stock price, when that happens, watch out!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This stock is so over bought--trading 25 times 2015 earnings already. Trades as if earnings are tripling or something. Granted they are growing at a good pace, but this is ridiculous. My puts are in, if they don't blow earnings away, momentum will crash quickly. JMHO of course.

  • You can bet that if SEC prevails, company insiders will load up on shares as shareholders will benefit with higher NII and higher NAV all of which has already been documented by management.(I also think that will lead to an increased dividend). If PSEC management prevails, we are status quo, and investment will pick back up in the next qtr. Win-Win for shareholders. This stock is a steal here--I have it as almost 50% of my portfolio and will add more if it trades below $9.50 again. Also, short position isn't a factor--E-Trade shows it at less than 6% of float, nothing to this stock, wouldn't even notice covering, although I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I was one of the shorts--one news story away from being screwed. Anyway, great to collect 13% annual rate per month. Thanks Mr. Market!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What would settle this stock down would be some significant insider buying of the shares the indexes are releasing giving assurance to the statements made by management regarding the SEC adjustment request. If restatement is only going to be a positive to stockholders, then become one, IE put your money where your mouth is!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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