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Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc. Message Board

sme20_98 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 9:24 AM Member since: May 10, 1999
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  • in the pre-market? Looks like it was a sell side transaction, wonder who it came from?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A fool and his money, are soon parted.

    by michaelrgiroux Mar 28, 2014 7:44 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Mar 28, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    You are the fool--AI has a book value over $30 and EPS that is more than enough to cover the current terrific dividend. This is the safest 13% in the market. Go away shorty.

  • sme20_98 by sme20_98 Mar 24, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    Some really great info in the Webcast, however, what i think is the best info going forward was the slide that showed their level of investment in floating rate securities while debt is locked at fixed rates. The slides indicated that a 5% increase in interest rates would translate into 9 cents of income/revenue. After Ms. Yellens remarks this past week, and continued tapering, you have to like PSEC in the long range. Interest rates could easily rise 50% in the next two to three years. That could translate into a nice rise in the dividend--which is already 12%-- going forward. If anything, the dividend is at least very safe under the current senario. Really loving PSEC here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Should be hearing from the FTC--was suppossed to be announced within 30 days of previous warning at the end of February.

  • Reply to

    Anyone Selling?

    by h8mongrel Mar 6, 2014 11:22 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Mar 6, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    Apparently the FTC disagrees with you as they have notified WAC that they will be filing an action for resolution of violation to consumer protection laws in the next 30 days. Resolution could be anything from a costly penalty to a mere demand for a corrective action plan. They clearly have done something that does not sit well with the FTC as they are looking for resolution. Just have to wait and see what the action is--but that's why the stock is off as bad as it is in the last month.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    1st Quarter Numbers can't be good

    by sme20_98 Mar 4, 2014 8:32 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Mar 6, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    Sorry, but you misunderstand --I was a strong supporter of WAC prior to earnings. Based upon earnings and their fairly steep miss, it has become clear that the earnings estimates they are sporting are very reliant on origination income. This was not how the company stated their earnings would primarily be derived--that servicing was the main revenue/income and that originations would be an offshoot due to the refinancing packages many individuals would need--a captive audience.However the slight rise in interest rates has exposed their business model to the reliance on origination income to make those numbers work. My only point is that this will definately continue in the first quarter as housing has been slowed even further with the harsh winter weather. That slows down the deals that banks are doing and will lessen the inventory available to servicers like WAC, OCN and NSM. Interest rates, while the rise has slowed , are still elevated, slowing refi's. Look, down the road if the regulatory issues subside(right now it is very ppossible that negotiated settlement ith FTC might lead to a settlement payout--also impacting earnings), I think WAC and OCN nad NSM will do well. I am just not sure WAC has reached its lows yet --I can easily see more downward revisions to earnings dur to this 1st quarter--I can't see how it could possibly be better than the fourth quarter that just missed by 14 cents. And the estimate is higher in order to come anywhere near $5.25--the low end of the yeraly estimate. I will not short, but I am waiting for the low twenties to get in for the improvement which will hopefully come in the second part of the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    1st Quarter Numbers can't be good

    by sme20_98 Mar 4, 2014 8:32 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Mar 4, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Not sure where you are from but i am in the northeast and the market--both initial and refiancing originations are slow--no inventory because of the harsh weather. Rates are poised to continue to increase with a slow recovery, so refi's are all but non existent. Sorry, but 1st qtr is shaping up to be a disaster --thats why I originally had hoped WAC would be more of a servicing company--that's what they led us to believe. Except their financials say a completely different story--at least half of net income is currently derived from origination business--currently thats a bad thing. Might improve down the road, but not this quarter. Throw in regulatory concerns and WAC is now a sell--sorrry--JMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Because of the very slow housing market(all be it because of the harsh winter) 1st quarter numbers for WAC can't be good or in line with estimates--even lowered ones. I will wait to get back in after the disappointing first quarter numbers are announced. WAC won't move until housing as a whole begoins to improve because so much of their earnings are based upon originations. After disappointing earnings it may fall to the lower 20's and then in the Spring/Summer recover some to the low 30's. For those who think it can't go lower, their reliance on originations changed all that thinking for me. Unless they announce a dividend or a buyback, WAC belongs in the mid to low 20's--Just my opinion of course. Very disappointed in the management--not where I felt they were going with this company.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Earnings relied greatly upon Originations

    by sme20_98 Feb 28, 2014 8:13 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Feb 28, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Only documenting my change in sentiment for the board--didn't want to look crazy based upon my previous posts on this stock. Based upon the reliance on origination income, WAC may not meet earnings estimates for the 1st qtr either, thus is $25.50 the bottom? Not sure at this point. Whats your strong arguement for buying?? Recent sell off-- I think you need more fundamentals then that. Just my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • in the 4th qtr. That worries me. One of the positives I had argued for WAC vs the others was that servicing revenue was the driver in earnings and if originations slowed, they would still be fine. This qtr of earnings puts a big hole in that argument. And with the mortgage market almost coming to a halt, originations will not be stellar in the 1st qtr either. Could see some poor EPS in the 1st qtr and more 2014 adjustnments to expected earnings coming down the pipe. These guys are much more tied to origination income than I originally thought--very disappointing to me. And it WILL impact earnings into 14--no way it can't. only way to offset is more servicing volume and then enter the regulators putting the end to that--or at least slowing the growth down. There is a reason the stocks are rated a sell--now it is clear to me--not what I wanted to hear, but these are the facts.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Regulators!!

    by sme20_98 Feb 27, 2014 1:27 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Feb 27, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Oh and to make it even make more sine, OCN whose earnings are less than WAC is up 3% at this writing--I'm not touching this sector any more--trading makes no sense!

  • sme20_98 by sme20_98 Feb 27, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    They have put a vice grip around this industry. I still think WAC is way undervalued, but regulators are going to hold a gun to this industries head going forward. I am out at huge losses, but I can't tke the market manipulation any longer, Back to my dividend stocks where it is nice and safe and paying me every three months. Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Ocwen Deal

    by odismyman86 Feb 21, 2014 3:06 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Feb 21, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Great News!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Up 5% in 15 mins

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yes I am GOING TO WHINE SOME MORE

    by sme20_98 Feb 21, 2014 11:25 AM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Feb 21, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    I also just bought some more. I can't resist at these prices. Earnings and guidance next week will tell the story. If management doesn't deliver, then they flat out just lied. They will be held accountable. For now, i have no reason to think they are not giving us good numbers. MSR's were big income makers for the banks until regulations forced them to down size their holdings. As one story said--even just the current service income for WAC is compelling at this price. We will see on Thursday. Good luck.

  • OCN expected EPS for 2014 is $4.92, currently trading @ $35 to $36, even with all of their bad news. That equals about 7.3 times estimated earnings. WAC estimated earnings for 2014 is $6.11--so if we were to trade at 7 times that amount , WAC stock price would be $42 to $43--it is a ridiculous $26.25---really, how is anyone in the market justifying this--and it is time for the company to act on this ---stock buy back or buying of the stock by insiders--it is time to kick these shorts out. MM is the only explaination of where this stock is trading--it is certainly not trading on its fundamentals.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great News!!! Earnings date next week

    by sme20_98 Feb 20, 2014 12:38 PM
    sme20_98 sme20_98 Feb 20, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    Just the fact they will be reporting at the same time so the comparisons between the companies can be made without waiting will play greatly in WAC's favor. We just brought a new deal on in December, we haven't had the specific complaints that the others have had. Earnings expectations are unchanged unlike others(NSM who is now looking at a loss because of restructuring). Hit the $1.24 and we should rocket back towards the 40's(IMHO)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We won't have to wait until March--earnings will be announced BMO on 2/27 along with the other servicers. We will be set apart from their losses and problems and be able to trade on our own merits--expecting $1.24 and solid estimates for 2014. This will put an end to shorts two weeks earlier than expected. Stock will probably(IMHO) start to run up a couple of days before as covering begins.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yet the selling/shorting continues with all the bad news surrounding the industry--none of which other than slowing originations--has implicated WAC. Management has done a poor job here of reassuring shareholders, either with insider buys, dividends or just an announcement that our earnings have not been impacted. WAC has underperformed OCN and NSM--the problem children in the news--just doesn't make sense. I'm holding firm until earnings--WAC management better come through--by staying silent through all this they are sticking to estimates that were given in their presentations in November and December--and we should all hold them to those numbers because of their silence though all of this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • OCN and NSM have all had their issues. None from WAC yet. If earnings are $1.24 as expected, WAC has to trade back to 35 or 40. I think shorts start to cover this stock in the next three weeks leading up to earnings--I've banked on it myself. Have to wait and see. But no indication from WAC management to expect anything else.

NSM
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