Not long ago the same 'tard was predicting "$12" and "9" for Ciena. lol!
A buyout is not happening now, nor should it. CIEN is currently trading at less than 1 times 2015 sales of $2.41 billion. Ciena has averaged double digit organic growth over the last 3 years while its peers have been flat or down. Simply put, it deserves a much higher valuation, and it will get it on its own merit. Watch the cash flow increase dramatically this year-and with it the valuation. Even a low 1.5 times revenue multiple implies a takeout price of over $34. That should be a starting point.
last seen they were predicting "12" and "$9" for Ciena.........
Hey dumbo--my track record speaks for itself. I own shares sub $10 and from $14 recently. All anyone has to do is look--they were posted as I did them. As for "CIEN thinking that they had metro to themselves at least mid-way into 2016"-- are you kidding me? We already have competition from ALU, Huawei, and others! Question is where has INFN been? Now here comes little INFN-- years behind the competition-- and you think they are "going to eat CIEN's lunch"?
well done bigfun. You just gave a textbook example of how easy it is to invest successfully without regard to the stock.
hopefully for his sake, the moldinc. id will go the way of the id's that were calling for "$12" and lower not that long ago.
"which has already had a broad portfolio spanning both long-haul and metro. We believe the acquisition is aimed at helping INFN better compete in Europe where Ciena has been seeing increasing momentum with the likes of Liberty Global and Vodaphone. While INFN's products predominately (98%) address the long-haul market, Transmode is aimed entirely at the metro market." Reiterate Buy $25 target.
So Dumbo tamaracktpg/signalattenuation/etc. thinks that INFN can buy their way into metro relevance?
LMAO!!!! They are YEARS behind Ciena, and the design wins for next generation networks Ciena has won with the big boys locks out INFN!
Tamarack- We are so happy for you now that INFN has a tier 1 LONG HAUL customer Facebook to go with Windstar!
Thats ok, CIEN is busy winning contracts in METRO with company's like VZ, Equinix, and T. The metro market opportunity dwarfs long haul.
However CIEN also continues to win other long haul business as well, yet CIEN longs don't feel compelled to run over to the INFN board and 'report'.
Could be we are used to winning Tier 1 accounts....but you go girl!
Mold, you are the board chump. Why are you still here?
Tell us again how you made money on these trades even though CIEN never traded anywhere near 18.55 after you shorted, lol!
c'mon, do it already.
There are 3 problems I have with sillycon's post baz:
1) why no mention of his buy last June until now?
2) why on earth did he not average down below $15? He had plenty of time.
3 )when he finally gets his $ back he says he will sell. He likely then will tell us all what a pos Ciena is, when in fact he only has himself to blame for his loss. That is if he is really long.
I doubt he is long. This reeks of a short who pretends he is long. Remember imagine4example?
A comparison from Argus on a technical piece from yesterday:
"The price to sales multiple for the Nasdaq Composite in 2000 was higher than the price to earnings multiple is today. Take Ciena, a high flyer at the time:
CIEN's Price to Sales in 2000 was was over 29 times. Its P/S for 1998-2000 averaged 16.0 and its P/E was 390 times. Ciena' current two year forward P/E is 15.6."
What they didn't state was Ciena's Price/Sales today is 1.0. versus 29.0 in 2000. Just as it was way overvalued then, Its really undervalued here.
* Top line challenges, but better profit and guidance
* Ciena reported 1Q15 revenue of $529 million, down 1% y/y and below Managements guidance. Excluding currency and order deferrals, revenue would have matched guidance.
* Non-GAAP EPS of $0.12 declined by a penny y/y and surprised on the upside versus the $0.03 consensus.
* Ciena reports accelerating momentum with webscale customers and in the metro portion of service provider accounts. Management has scaled back revenue growth to 5%, from prior high single digit guidance based on currency, but reiterated operating margin guidance.
We are reiterating our BUY rating on CIEN to a 12 month target price of $25.
this most recent buy actually raised my cost basis mk.
Isn't hard to believe there were actually guys predicting $12 and $9 for Ciena just 3 months ago?
peruse away mk--I do not need a second alias. You see, I have doubled my money on my Ciena position.
As for my being angry, well- that too is a product of your imagination. Life is good.
Hope you have a good time here today.
"Ciena noted improved Cloud-to-Cloud demand and the emerging metro markets as critical drivers of growth which are accelerating and noted many of the metro wins would be more substantive to FY16 growth. "
Needham raised FY2015 EPS from $0.85 to $0.96 which is still below consensus.
Even added INFN customer Windstream for their next gen metro buildout. Also added Digital Realty as a 6500 customer too, but their 2nd largest customer again this quarter was a Web 2.0 customer. Non Telco revs are now 1/3 of Ciena's total revs as customer base continues to diversify.
since mold just claimed (again) to have made money when he clearly is a shortbaggie, manning up simply isn't an option for him.
Book to bill was 1:1. too.
As for the margins they will be stronger than expected due to the strong dollar lowering OPEX. However the same strong dollar will also negatively impact revs in Q2 by 15 million.
Whats frustrating is that even though Ciena's business is strong, they can never seem to get it all together. For example the lowering of 2015 growth to 5% from 7-9% due to FX hitting revs isn't bullish even though it is easily explained. The positives certainly outweigh the negatives however, and Ciena remains undervalued.
moldy may as well predict teens as he has nothing to lose. He is chumped out on this board due to his chronically bad trades. If he is wrong its no big deal. He will simply fire up a new alias and continue.
Should hit eps/revs this quarter. Guidance will be the key. Next quarter $597 mm consensus implies 7% q/q growth which should be doable. I am a bit concerned about the 20 cent earnings consensus for next quarter though. That 'operating leverage' Smith keeps talking about better kick in. If so, $24 is likely tomorrow, with a move back to the high 20's short term.