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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

smithlewis89 78 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Nov 17, 2010
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  • smithlewis89 smithlewis89 4 hours ago Flag

    CC was interesting and positive , but I was able to remain in my chair throughout call. On really great or surprising news I have been known to breakout the "happy dance" ... not today. Wifey says that "happy dance" ain't what it once was ... I wonder what that means ???

    89

  • Nothing groundbreaking here. As stated in release they are on track (stated several times in CC) to submit NDA 1st Q. ADP enrollment still on track to complete yr end '15 , expect data mid 2016. Sleep trials to begin first half 2015.
    Nothing mentioned , nor did they have anyone on call , concerning Wainwright paper , but they did talk about the ADP trial (PII) and say that they would take data from that trial and decide how to design the PIII trial. With this obvious statement they largely take Wainwright's negative out of the equation. This goes to my point yesterday of how could Wainwright comment on the design of a trial that has not yet been designed ?? This seemed so obvious that I thought maybe I had completely misunderstood the process.
    Would not be surprised to see a little pullback , but not that much. Also , would not be surprised to see NDA by end of next week , which gives us a bump to maybe $40ish.

    89

  • smithlewis89 smithlewis89 6 hours ago Flag

    If ACAD had delayed this filing again ... the market would have cared a lot !!! Getting a big bounce from the announcement of "on track for 1st Q" was not the point (we've already had a good bounce) , NOT getting a pounding from a delay AND NOT losing confidence in management was the point. Bottom line ACAD delivered again. Still CC should be interesting .
    89

  • Reply to

    ACAD on NDA ...

    by smithlewis89 7 hours ago
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 6 hours ago Flag

    Must disagree ... conformation is new news . And it is good.
    89

  • smithlewis89 by smithlewis89 7 hours ago Flag

    "we remain on track to submit NDA in 1st Q". Great news , I'm pleased to say .

    89

  • smithlewis89 smithlewis89 7 hours ago Flag

    spader , I'm in the "we will file this Q" camp. Probably does not mean much , but I think the price action today is positive. I'm really looking forward to this evening's CC.

    89

  • Reply to

    FDA novel new drugs 2014 summary

    by jeffcbioboards 23 hours ago
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 21 hours ago Flag

    Jeff ... Welcome to the board and thank you for an informative post. Only questionable statement you made was including me in the "educated" group highly questionable judgement there my friend ! wrt CC , I too am expecting a firm date for NDA and with that assumption I wonder what , if any , further info will be attached. Will Uli address the expectations of revenue for PDP in US ,etc.. Also I read what was available to me on Wainwright paper . Will anyone bring up the question that Wainwright posed about the design of the ADP trial not being conducive to a successful outcome (I wonder how a firm , even a reputable one such as Wainwright , can better determine the design of a trial vs ACAD's team?)? I've got about the same # shares as you , so we both have a good deal riding on this baby and , like you , I'm sleeping well (but may be a little better after they actually announce the NDA submission).

    89

  • Reply to

    Congrats to ACAD ...

    by smithlewis89 Feb 17, 2015 10:43 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 24, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    Deal was ACAD sets all time high , I keep posting. Although we closed lower on the day , ACAD DID make a new all time high this morning ... so here I am again ... Congrats ACAD.

    89

  • Reply to

    Congrats to ACAD ...

    by smithlewis89 Feb 17, 2015 10:43 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 23, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    All time high today . ACAD held up its end of the deal ... so am I .

    89

  • smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 22, 2015 9:03 PM Flag

    lilly ,
    Interesting post , thank you. I too have been doing some thinking recently about "the markets" and several nights ago I engaged in an enlightening exercise ... I went back to 2007 and looked at every trade I've made up to the present . Boy was I stupid on some of those trades , but man was I smart on some others ! That rearview mirror sure makes things clear . Two things I did realize after analyzing my trades ... #1. Most (but not all) of my "stupid" buys were on stocks that I did not know enough about and made too large a purchase on first buy , not giving myself any flexibility or time to better assess the investment. #2. The two glaringly "stupid" sells were on 2 stocks that I had owned profitably for a time and had a good understanding (for me) of the business and their prospects for the next 5 years. Both times I thought I would be smart and sell on a spike up while completely expecting to buy back in a few days or weeks. I sold CVI in 2010 @ $8.00 (ave $4.60) for a nice gain on the 20,000 shares ... never really got a chance "to buy back" as it hit $65.00 in 2013. All this on a stock that I was sure was going to be a great company when I sold it. The other was SWKS , which I had bought and sold 3 times for OK profit before 2012. Loved the company and Management , but decided the stock had had a big run in Nov 2012 and decided to sell 1650 shares in mid 20s , looking for that pullback (this time I kept 1500 shares , just in case another CVI). Needless to say , even though I reinvested the proceeds of the 1650 I wished I still had the 3150 of SWKS. Bottom line : Sell if you think the stock is not as attractive as another investment going forward , not because you think you have made too much profit (what would you think if you had just bought the stock 5% ago). The idea I see often used is to sell and get back initial cost and then you have "free shares" and that , IMO , is far too simplistic a concept to be effective over time.
    Still own 1500.

  • smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 22, 2015 1:37 AM Flag

    Just thought I would bring this post up.

    89

  • Reply to

    Congrats to ACAD ...

    by smithlewis89 Feb 17, 2015 10:43 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 20, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    Another day another all-time high !! Here's the deal ... ACAD keeps making all-time highs everyday / I keep posting the obvious . Fair deal in my book.

    89

  • Reply to

    Congrats to ACAD ...

    by smithlewis89 Feb 17, 2015 10:43 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 19, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    I could get use to this !

    89

  • Reply to

    Congrats to ACAD ...

    by smithlewis89 Feb 17, 2015 10:43 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 18, 2015 6:26 PM Flag

    Rinse and Repeat . Nice .

    89

  • smithlewis89 by smithlewis89 Feb 17, 2015 10:43 PM Flag

    All time high today. Hopefully many more to come.

    89

  • Reply to

    Late day buying surge?

    by mass.biotech Feb 17, 2015 3:47 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 17, 2015 7:04 PM Flag

    Just my 2 cents : 200K shares , while a nice buy , does not constitute a "surge" on a $2.20 stock. Let's give this a few days to see if we get some follow thru and hopefully we can look back and point to today as the beginning of a surge. If by chance the 2 buys were from a "big boy" we definitely should see similar buys over next several days. disclosure : long NVIV (for about 1 month).

    89

  • smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 14, 2015 11:20 PM Flag

    IMO ... NDA filing would not fall under "quiet period" rules. If they have a firm date I believe they will announce such. They have met all timelines and have been conservative in their predictions , with the one exception being the NDA filing by yr end 2014. I believed their explanation of the delay and I further believe Uli's statement at last conference that "we will file in 1st Q ... that's this quarter". If this does not happen I will be completely surprised and will feel less comfortable with this investment on a going forward basis.

    89

  • Reply to

    Question,

    by ddon158 Feb 13, 2015 9:29 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 13, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    I would hold all through NDA submission . PPS may hit around $40 when that happens. Would not be foolish to sell 1/3 then (~her cost) and hold thru ADP results , if good then hold on ... if bad , probably sell around 25 - $30. Best advice : don't look for these answers from someone you do not know on message board , and that includes me. Good luck to you and your daughter .

    89

  • Reply to

    Tblant ...

    by smithlewis89 Feb 12, 2015 9:56 PM
    smithlewis89 smithlewis89 Feb 12, 2015 10:49 PM Flag

    Needless to say ... I will not be borrowing that for Spring Training !!
    OT : I bought a little NVIV , worth a look. Not going to go to $30 , but risk / reward looks pretty good. I know I mentioned AMBS to you some time back , you said did not appeal to you ... good call. I did manage to "see the light" and got out myself with a tiny gain , very tiny. I bought and sold SNSS last month @ about even. Also last month bought some ISR which I still have and I'm in the red about 5%. Hate to keep mentioning old friend SWKS , but man has that one been sweet (great company & management). You into anything new ?
    Buddy

  • smithlewis89 by smithlewis89 Feb 12, 2015 9:56 PM Flag

    You still @ 82 ? I added 500 couple weeks back ... now 29.5. Did you say that you bought place in Fl. ? Ifso , are you going down during spring training this year ? Sheila and I might go for a few days .

    Buddy

ACAD
37.78+0.38(+1.02%)Feb 26 4:00 PMEST

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