Would most people prefer a test that is 90% accurate in determining whether or not they'll develop Alzheimer's within three years or a test that informs them with 90% accuracy that they already have it?
Personally I'd prefer the three year advanced notice.
Interesting week ahead.
Depending on the content of the LynPro "update" I think it will be clear which direction the share price is headed short term.
The market is getting numb to the press releases that don't demonstrate a short term path to generating revenue for the company.
The shareholders need a "home run" and not a "bloop single" to right field from Gerald. Gerald's at the plate with a 3-2 count and the next pitch is getting ready to be delivered.
Unfortunately I think that Gerald's "street cred" is waning in lieu of the lack of any non-dilutive funding over the last sixteen months while the share count has skyrocketed to over 800,000,000 "in play" currently.
I think that in the short term that his LymPro "update" will have a very substantial impact on the share price. My range depending on the news is .04 to .15.
I have no idea at this time as to what Gerald will disclose but I know the reaction by the market will be very significant either to the upside or to the downside.
Best of luck to everyone. Interesting week ahead.
Gerald tweeted on Thursday that he would update the market on LymPro "soon". It's interesting to note that he did this after the market discounted the news of a third orphan indication for MANF.
It's obvious that the market is tiring of the continued tremendous dilution. If the LymPro update doesn't contain some indication of the potential for near term revenue I fully expect the share price will retrace to the .05 range or lower.
There's still 85,000,000 shares at .04 from the eventual conversion of the debentures that creates a substantial roadblock to a higher price.
Gerald is running out of shares much faster than most shareholders thought would be the case.
I'm not suggesting that anyone sell. I am suggesting that there may be a much better price over the next 2-3 weeks for anyone wanting to average down.
Just a thought!!!
p.s. The current share count is north of 800,000,000.
The only morons here are those individuals that will continue to hold their shares if Gerald's next blog doesn't offer something substantial to the market. If that includes you then so be it.
No news and the share price will go to a nickle.
Bet on it.
Why did you disappear from the Mannkind board years ago? As I recall you were always posting obscure information obtained from your "data mining" efforts to bolster the case for Afrezza. We both know how that worked out.
It appears you now have a new crusade.
1. It's quite obvious that the market is now discounting Gerald's "puff presentations": (i.e. Clear Channel radio interview whether or not it was paid for by the company?).
2. Next week's anticipated C.E.O. blog had better contain some definitive news with a defined short term plan for the company especially regarding a firm time frame for "up-listing" to a national exchange.
3. "HelperWatson" hasn't been right about anything.
4. Anyone who thinks that the 172,000,000 shares at less than a nickle from the conversion of the warrants/debentures is already reflected in the current share price is out of touch with reality.
5. Napadano referencing a 1 for 50 reverse split when the share price is at or near .12 is now closer to reality than anyone anticipated. Forget about a share price of .25 and anything less than 1 for 20.
6. There is almost 100% probability that Gerald will use all 1,000,000,000 shares at his "disposal".
7. The share price will be under .06 or above .12 by Friday. Place your bet.
p.s. Interesting week ahead with a bit more volatility
The shareholders of AMRN, VVUS, and ARNA all learned that trial results and approval don't create a market. Al will soon be a multi-millionaire.
If you were half as smart as you think you are you'd still be stupid.
Please don't argue the point. We both know it's true.
There will be no partnership until after the decision and if Afrezza is approved the REMS are known.
No major drug company will invest money until they know what they are selling.
From yesterday's SeekingAlpha article:
Getting to the real reason I feel MannKind is going to implode is that there appears to be a very good chance of a Black Swan making an appearance in the briefing documents. The mismatch between the results provided to the public so far, and Mr. Mann's belief in the product's performance, are clearly at odds with one another. My bet is that these are the best results the company has to offer, and there are some naughty surprises that will be revealed in the briefing documents. And this, my friends, is why I suspect the FDA called an Advisory Committee in the first place. If these trial data looked as impressive as the company claims, an Advisory Committee would be a waste of time and effort. So, I don't think they called an ADCOM to rubber stamp Afrezza.
Think about it this way. If reality coincided with Mr. Mann's view of Afrezza, why hasn't a big partner stepped in to either buy the company or partner? The answer is obvious: they don't share his outlook. They either believe Afrezza will be rejected again, or its sales will underwhelm.
My view is that Mr. Mann has gotten emotionally involved in the development of this product, and has therefore lost sight of its significant shortcomings. That's a recipe for disaster.
So in conclusion, my bet is that Afrezza will indeed be rejected come April, and MannKind shares sink below $1. If you're long this stock, you should think carefully about hedging this position.
"Didn't see it coming."
"The good news is that it's an opportunity to add cheaper shares as it falls."
"Stocks go up and they go down."
"Patience is a virtue."
$AMBS's share price will triple in the next thirty days. MNKD will be trading lower in thirty days. It's your choice.
I've spoken to Gerald nine times since last February. The last time we spoke was about ten days ago. At that time he assured me that the company would up-list in 2014. He also said there would be no problem in the company moving the share price above .10 and to obtain the additional cash from the warrants being converted. He said there were a number of things in the pipeline which would insure that these events occurred but that he couldn't discuss them at that time.
I still think the next major announcement will be in regards to a partnership with Becton Dickinson for the sale and distribution of LymPro. I expect a substantial upfront cash payment in the $35,000,000 range.
Anyone selling here will regret is very soon. Jason Napadano said it was worth .20 two months ago.
"Patience is a virtue."
p.s. I do sleep. However I try to get the word out to others. I hate to see someone sell their shares when I firmly believe they'll regret it. I've been saying to buy this since it was at .03