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Appliance Recycling Centers of America Inc. Message Board

snds10 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 20, 2014 8:48 PM Member since: Aug 5, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Stockholder's equity

    by goppc1170 Apr 20, 2014 1:39 PM
    snds10 snds10 Apr 20, 2014 8:48 PM Flag

    I think your logic about book value has zero value. The cash flow the business could make going forward with some logic on past performance is how most investors value the equity. There are lots of businesses that trade below book value because they have expectations of lower profits or poor business. There can be strong value if a company trades at 20-30% of book value but that's not the case here.

    I think you're correct expecting $.20-30, although I would expect lower profits but that's just our own opinions. I don't think they will have losses but profits will not meet this boards overall expectation. I think people here have such high unrealistic expectations that the equity will continue much lower. If gv doesn't get a big contract I would expect much lower than $2 very soon. The first quarter is going to tell the story. Have a nice day.

  • snds10 by snds10 Mar 29, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    Hoping for another good quarter to start the new year. I know in MN market our weather was very bad for many days but still hoping for decent numbers. Hope for good carbon credit profits during 1st qtr. Better yet future carbon credit profits. Looks like anual meeting is first part of May. Have a nice day.

  • Reply to

    Hetikus, snds, etc- you're missing the point

    by dalton880 Mar 28, 2014 6:34 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 28, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    I guess we will agree to disagree. I don't think backlog went up $50M because they have just in the last month or two got big new orders?? That's just my opinion. They looked at the long term backlog and wanted to give a range for the investors of what they could do in revenue. They also stated 51% expected completion rate for 2014. So that's really a backlog of $39M. The company stated in a round about way $39M period. Nothing more nothing less. They might have more footprint than I think but I'm going to guess less than $20M and big disappointment for the stock.

  • Reply to

    $22.8M Dec qtr revenues didn't include C & C

    by dalton880 Mar 28, 2014 4:57 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 28, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    I think its more conservative to assume 1/4th the year backlog they expect to finish or 9.75M plus yes lets add in $4M form cc. They did 14.5 so really its safer to add 3.6M. You get to a safe number of 13.375M. Your assuming they will get $10M or more of new business. I think that's a significant risk and would assume total rev less than $20M. That's our variance we don't agree on. They are growing and doing well but our opinions differ. Good company but to me clearly downside much greater than upside. They had many fixes that needed to be done to the contract work they did and that won't sit well when new contracts are awarded. They learned and should do better but to me this is clearly. Close to even or maybe slight profits.

  • Reply to

    $22.8M Dec qtr revenues didn't include C & C

    by dalton880 Mar 28, 2014 4:57 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 28, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Ok the fact they pay income taxes is part of every normal business. They used to have loss carryforwards and now they pay taxes. Will they have one time closing costs for the cc aquistion or some other one time costs? Backlog is based on what? Based on the expectation of what they think will happen and changes a lot from qtr to qtr. I hope you're correct and they do great numbers! My guess is really close to .00 give or take .05 for the first quarter.

  • Reply to

    hope for the best

    by snds10 Mar 28, 2014 4:03 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 28, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    No it's not a good short. One big contract and it could rocket higher. Puts would be the only way to play it. Just keep eyes open to what's really going on with everything.

  • Reply to

    hope for the best

    by snds10 Mar 28, 2014 4:03 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 28, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    I'm not short. Tried many times to buy 2.50 puts but they don't trade. Would have bought less than 2000 contracts anyway or 200K shares. The spread is huge. I hope all the best for longs and company.

  • Good luck to everyone here and I hope the company does great. Massive selling and people think its just margin calls etc. Fundamentals are whatever you think they are. This is so clear to me what will happen, and already starting to happen. Have a nice day.

  • Reply to

    Q1 2014 Earning Estimate

    by heptikus Mar 28, 2014 11:41 AM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 28, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    I agree with your estimate. I think it will be an eye opening 1st qtr for many. 4th quarter I remember everyone saying $25-30M for sure without a doubt. Well $22.8 was still pretty good for this company. The company is making a lot of positive progress but the expectations are being set at unrealistic levels. I thought one post was .08-.12 for the year but he meant each quarter!!! Wow really?? Hope he's correct but think it will be less than .20 for the year for sure. I really doubt we are going to see sales at $140M either. I will be in FL in a few days and maybe take a drive by headquarters and see what's going on.

  • Reply to

    Looking back...and forward

    by heptikus Mar 28, 2014 12:02 AM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 28, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    I think you're high on revenues of $100M but also you said .08-.12 for earnings which I think is a little low. I would think closer to .15 for earnings for 2014.

  • Reply to

    Fair Value....

    by muskiebear63 Mar 27, 2014 3:43 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    Yes I agree that arci retail has been a little tough but I think they could make good reliable money on just the carbon offest profits. I think they could make .20-.30 on just this segment. They could also expand the GE contract as they said they hope to do at some future point in time. Time will tell on gv.

  • Reply to

    2014 estimates?

    by snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:31 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 9:00 PM Flag

    I'm very happy to see you know what you're talking about. I do differ on opinion. So backlog a year ago was $17M and this year is $75m or really $39M and yes add back $15M for the business they purchased. They do have a bigger footprint then a few years ago. Could it be the backlog goes up and down over many years. Some years they are very busy and the backlog is huge and then a couple years later backlog drops off like a rock. History over the last 10 years will tell that story. I think your thoughts of up to $.75 is false and not valid but that's the beauty of each of us having an opinion. I was never able to buy the $2.50 puts I wanted to at a decent price so I have no skin in the game. You have clearly stated your 2014 estimates now we will see how things turn out. Have a nice day.

  • Reply to

    Fair Value....

    by muskiebear63 Mar 27, 2014 3:43 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    arci

  • Reply to

    2014 estimates?

    by snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:31 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    I tried several times to buy several hundred contracts. I even posted the days I was doing it!!! I'm not a negative person and if they can do a great business I'm very happy for gv. I just think they are very expensive now. Remember $32M in sales two years ago. Things are as they appear

  • Reply to

    2014 estimates?

    by snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:31 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Keep in mind they had $32.8M in revenue in 2011

  • Reply to

    2014 estimates?

    by snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:31 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    lol ok if that's what you think. Buy more if you think it's going up. I'm just trying to be the voice of reason when I see what I think is a bunch of hype. I wouldn't bet more than you can afford to or maybe diversify a bit. All isn't always what it appears so clearly to one person. Like somebody said the other day all this cash they have, well they have way more debt than cash. They couldn't pay the debt off if they wanted to so it's clearly twisting the truth to say they have $.50 of cash bc they they also have $.80 of debt.

  • Reply to

    2014 estimates?

    by snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:31 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Remember last year when everyone thought .47 was going to repeat. Now they earned .15. hmmm well realistic earnings for this year are what I base my numbers on.

  • Reply to

    2014 estimates?

    by snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:31 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    I think they had new business that landed in the 4th qtr. I didn't mean just the 4th qtr. You have to feel comfortable with $39M stated backlog completion expectation for 2014. Historically the kind of new business wins people are expecting this year is a very unlikely number in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    2014 estimates?

    by snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:31 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    No that's my $68M number. They said backlog was $76M and expect to finish 51% or $39M. So the company said yesterday they expect $39M to be revenue in 2014..... I'm expecting additional business to bring it up to $68M.

  • Reply to

    Fair Value....

    by muskiebear63 Mar 27, 2014 3:43 PM
    snds10 snds10 Mar 27, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Or 10X last year profits is $1.50....What's this years profits? Post your estimate for everyone to see.

ARCI
2.7999-0.0401(-1.41%)Apr 23 3:18 PMEDT

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