One key is WHERE does Lee's do their dry eye trial? It matters a great deal if in Hong Kong or Beijing. I have severasl family members who both have lived in and traveled to Beijing. The polllution is horrendous. I mean bad. If Lee's does the China trail with majority Beijing patients, TB 4 has a leg up against a mere water based placebo. We NEED a trial win somewhere to gain respect.
Wow, Lilly just announced a co-partnership to develop a drug for alzheimers…a neuro. But get this. The drug has only been thru a Phase 1 trial….no phase 2 yet. And Lilly is willing to pau an up to $500 million in milestones, including a $50 million upfront payment. One would think that with the reputation of Henry Ford researchers in various neuro areas….and the multiple pre clinical studies they have done with TB 4 in a few neuro areas.stroke, MS etc… (even heart now) that some pharma woudl take a gamble on Henry Ford's reputation to take a gamble on TB 4, which I am sure could be gotten very cheaply. On other hand? As I posted earlier, maybe we go for it all… and get Henry Ford to do a small in house phase 2 in neuro/stroke. If Lilly is willing to pay milestone of up to $500 million, with $50 million upfront for a PHASE 1 drug..how much woulda hoped for successful Phase 2 by henry ford make TB 4 worth on a neuro deal? More than $500 million milestones and $50 million upfront? probably. But we NEED Henry Ford to announce they are willing to doi such a small phase 2. HF has played with TB 4 for almost 5 years now. What's the holdup to see if it works in humans? A 40 patient small phs 2 woudl not cost much and could all be done at HF and RGRX supplies TB 4.
Bo, don't take it wrong…I'd be thrileed if they got a partner for 352…but somehwo I can't get that excited. Finkel Tinkel has used teh same verbiage for many, many years that pertnership negotiations were "underway' for TB 4 fragments in cosmaceuticals. Nothing happened. I don't trust Finkelstein. And I don't trust his ability to negotiate a good deal if he was to partner out 352. But then again? Finkel has run RGRX so far into the almost broke ground, that he will have no choice but to accept ANY proposal for 352…..he'll probably GIVE it away for free to anyone who could spend the money on a phase 2, then maybe phase 3..and RGRX would only get a milestone $ after that, or on approval. And the royalty thus probably would be tiny. Finkel is in a box…of his own making…and almost ruinous tio us.
If Finkel & Goldie REALLy believed in 352 for stroke, neuro and heart areas..they would NOT PARTNER NOW…but just somehow get Henry Ford to do a small in house phase 2 and see what happens. if it flops, then 352 is worthless to others. But what does it matter? RGRX is at 13 cents. we have nothing more to lose. But if Henry Ford wins on a small phase 2, the UPSIDE is enormous. And instead of giving it away now in a deal - to get anything…..with a good Henry Ford trial, you woudl be getting big offers…with the likes of $20 million upfront, real milestones and real royalties. My vote would be we having not much left to lose. get Henry ford to do a small phase 2. Our downside is little. An win trial with HF is huge upside.
you better look at the historical prices of hogs and feed. For several years, grains were sky high……hogs plentiful. Pork prices surely will come down, and corn is plummeting. So comparing to historical pork prices going back a handful of years…..SEB will do fine. Also, Bresky, who runs SEB, felt comfortable enough that he spent $53 million to buy about 18,000 shares, and he was willing to pay $2,950 for them. So what do you think Bresky thinks, now that SEB is $100 below that price? A better buy? SEB still has $50 million left in it's authorized buy back program, and my hunch he is buying at this level. SEB also made a very unusual move in that they paid a penalty to retire ALL their long term debt. They paid just over a $3 million penalty to retire about $80 million of all LT debt. Why do you thnk he did that? I have a guess, and I am nibbling down here. SEB will also book about a $4 million gain in Q4 on sale of power assets. Further, SEB takes delivery in Q4 of three new ships for container division. SEB paid for them. But on delivery, SEB is selling them for about $60 milliion cash and leasing them back. SEB is a buy down here. SEB is buying stock and raising cash and retiring all LT debt. There is a reason why, IMO. Take a guess.
I supopose there's logic in that…that the CT filing could related to a milestone payment, and that number can be confidential. RGRX stated in the 10-Q that they would get in the Korean deal an "up to $7 million in milestone payments and a double digit royalty on sales". But that full $7 million will never come until they are able to show a winning phase 3 trial and that then TB 4 get's approves for sale in every country the Korean firm has rights to. So far, all the Koreans have done is supposedly file for a trial registration that will start in early 2015. I think this is similar for Lee's in Hong Kong. They just got approved to do a trial. I don't think the milestone payment would be hardly anything, on just getting approval to a trial. Milestones ususally only come when the said trial has ended and results show it worked.
The CT order could be related to the FDA Orphan Grant Program….they gave TB 4 Orphan Status for TB 4 in eye NK…..it's only logical that next step would be to file for an Orphan Grant for a trial. The timeline is that if RGRX filed, it had to be early Feb…..then in May a Peer review looks at all grant requests……then that get's whittled down to an FDA Advisory Council….and then, they meet in SEPTEMBER. So the filing could be related to that, since RGRX has not ever disclosed if they applied for a grant, but it is Sept 9. So RGRX is HIDING it..hgiding it is thus confidential. Next step is around mid October, the FDA anounces who got the grants. Last year 15 companies got them. Then first funds come in Nov.
Oddly enough, last year the FDA released who won the grants on OCTOBER 21…which also happens to coincide damn near the starting date of the big 2014 Thymosin Conference…October 23-25.
This is just a thought. I hope it is related to FDA Orphan Grant and not some other kind of financing.
I don't think it has anythong to do with holding dowmn teh price. A lot of time CT orders are relatd to fimnancings or deals….where a party doesn't want the disclosure just yet. I dunno…..what it is…..
I wonder what the CT order is about ("CT" standing for Confidential Treatment"). I hope it is not a financing thing. But it has to be something that is enough to disclose to SEC.
I kind of agree that in last two or three years many folks with losses, or weak hands..sold for tax reasons. But there are still plenty of people around that hung on….like most of us here. I have some very good gains this year elsewhere…..and some I've taken already so I know I have a cap gains tax issue. I will have bigger cap gains issue if I sell more with gains. All I have to do is let go some RGRX and I lessen the tax burden. But then I have to wait 31 days if I want to buy back. I think some of our downdrafts are people with gains selling for the tax losses, well BEFORE the usual mid december puke…….so they have the option of getting back in. I don't know what I'll do. Probably hold my nose and pay the damned taxes and keep the RGRX. But if anyone is thinking of harvesting RGRX tax losses, I would do so soon..before Sept 20….because it is very possible that Finkel Tinkel has news he sits on for the Oct 23-25 meeting. I'm also tempted to buy some too. Read my previous in this thread. It is Finkelstein that holds me back.
on the other hand, wouldn't it be nice to see NITE get shorter and shorter, in size? There might be price moving news at the Oct 23-25 Thymosin gathering. Will henry ford announce they will do, pay for and sponsor a TB 4 trial in stroke or neuro? Will Finkel Tinkel announce that RGRX has received an Orphan Grant for TB 4 in eye NK…..if so, it will be about $1.5 million. And also, RGRX has stated if they proceded with an eye NK Orphan status trial, they are asking the FDA to procedd to a direct Phase 3. Will the FDA agree? If these things DO happen, along with the China dry eye trial proceeding as well as the Korean one…..I think 16 cents is an okay buy. NITE would regret shorting 100k there.You might not get 14 cent stock.I have no problem buying 16 cent stock, really. But my problem is Finkelstein, and his silence. I have NO idea if he even applied for an Orphan Grant, or if he has had meeting with FDA if to go direct to eye NK phase 3…I have no idea if Henry Ford will ever do a neuro or stroke trial. I don't have exact timelines WHEN the China or Korea trials will start (and FINISH). Basically, a failure to communicate. NITE is VERY willing to short hundreds of thousands of RGRX anytime….because they know Finkel has failed every step so far. The October meeting COULD be things that move RGRX higher than 16 cents…….but we have no clue.
Nice article about PORK…..but PPC is a Chicken company….not pork.
But my personal bet is that before the end of 2014…… PPC will be in the pork business…in a pretty big way. I think possible PPC get's into the Turkey business too…sort of depends how much debt PPC could do. But maybe they do a combo of stock and cash (debt financed). It would make it easier for the lenders if PPC would issue some equity on their next deal..after all…..PPC has risen from $10'ish to $30…..that's a triple. Keep the banks and bondholders happy..and PPC can still be active in M&A….and get the money they need. They are not done buying yet…..PPC lost bidding attempts for Smithfield and Hillshire. I don't think they intend to lose the next time. That's three strikes.
NITE was offering the 50k shares at 0.125 yesterday. At end, 78k shares traded…and 30,000 was an opening SHORT. So NITE is back to their old habits..shorting RGRX. NITE also knows full well markets have been very good, so people have gains..and they know full well that RGRX is stink….so they know that in next handful months tax selling shoudl be around..and what better way to bring out more sellers than to pound down RGRX a little more…..so it looks like NITE is willing to short 0.125.
All that is fine and dandy……because I think Finkel Dope is hiding a couple pieces of october 23-25 news. Getting $1.5 million in FDA Orphan grant for a POSSIBLE agreed to PHASE #3 in eye NK…is big news……and something is going on with henry Ford and neuro stroke. I think they are planning a stroke trial, done in house. That is also big news..because RGRX s***ks at doing trials. henry Ford is highly respected place for neuro.
So if NITE is back shorting us down…..even I might take some. ….as much as I don't wish to….because it means I am buying Finkel as well as TB 4. Buying Finkel is a mistake. Just looks at his alpost 20 year record of running RGRX.
Agree. It hads been a sharp spike up in just a handful of days. One day on larger volume..and another was on a big selloff that completely reversed. there was a big buyer. What caught my interest is this. Warren Buffet's favored partner these days is 3G Capital. read:
"Jorge Paulo Lemann's 3G Capital, which worked with Buffett last year to take ketchup maker HJ Heinz Co. private, controls Miami-based Burger King. "
See? Buffet did a deal with 3G for heinze, then yesterday Buffet did deal with 3G for Burger King and Tim Horton's.. 3G is based in Sao Paolo..same as JBS. What I think happened here was an awakening to the FOOD companies in Brazil and the USA exposure they now have….Heinz, Burger King..tim Hortons….and now the market sees that they miss the most OBVIOUS one…….JBS. Who knows, maybe 3G Capital told Buffet of JBS and it's assets and it is Buffet buying it all up……but on other hand, Buffet doesn't usually go for such over leveraged companies. But the ASSETS… JBS has……and Buffet is buying FOOD. What does JBS have? Food for the world…..
If I had a good clue that Henry Ford would be filing for a neuro/stroke TB 4 trial soon..and if I knew that RGRX had indeed filed for an FDA Orphan Grant, which could be $1.5 million..which may go towards a eye NK phase 3….then YES, I would take that 50,000 at 0.125 that NITE offers (probably short). But I don't know. So to buy it I have to put all trust in Finkelstein. That has not worked very well. Thre is no reason why RGRX coudl not have just said that they APPLIED for an orphan grant. We don't know if they'd get it. But what is the harm to state they APPLIED? none. Same with Henry Ford. HF put out the abstract on stroke, with good results, stating that they now have identiied a human dose for trial. SILENCE by FINKEL DOPE. However, just a few weeks BEFORE that , RGRX was all over releasing an abstract by Henry Ford of TB 4 in a heart study. SEE? No one trusts Finkelstein. I don't. But if YOU trust Finkelstein, then I have a feeling there will be such news Oct 23-25 and 0.125 might be a decent buy…….execpt for…..
hey dope…I said results of three possible TRIALS won't be out until mid 2015. They are the MAJOR game changer bits of news. They flop, RGRX is toast. they win, RGRX sails.
The other news I discern could be lesser but still important. When I earlier posted of 2015 news & results, that was BEFORE I saw the Henry ford abstract where they state they have identified a dose level for human neuro trial. RGRX IS SILENT ON THAT.So I am hopeful HF announces a trial….. Same goes with FDA Orphan grant. That wll be known by Nov…..both of these potentially great…but the win lose news of RGRX won't be till mid 2015. TRIAL RESULTS.
what is your purpose heer, besides being stupid? you can't fix stupid you know.
It is not totally unusual…..but a bit odd. If FINRA shows no RGRX symbol in the daily short list.it means that there was no short in RGRX that day. Not a single share shorted. So no FINRA report needed. All the volume in RGRX was a long seller. A long sellers size offer was lifted earlier…. and the down ticks later was also a long seller hitting the bids.
I wish I had a better handle on this Oct 23-25 conference. There could be news that will move RGRX.. I laid out what could be. But as always……if I buy more RGRX I am buying MORE Finkelstien.and that hasn't worked out so well. Whcih is why I might be more interested in buing Henry Ford, If I knew THEY were doing ALL the stroke or neuro trial. But we don't know if HF will do it or has any plans to, Hoping to see in late Oct.
Disagree….all the other conference boondoggles made no real news…they just gave out talks and research abstracts….but if Finkel Tinkel get's his act together….he cold be warehousing two big news items. I am hoipeful that Henry Ford will announce they will do a small HUMAN trial in stroke. That is BIG news becaise Henry Ford is well respected and they will pay for almost all of the trial? See? The second possible big news that RGRX sits on is did they apply for an Orphan trial grant…..if they did and they get it they will get about $1.5 million…and also RGRX stated they ask the FDA to go DIRECT to a phase 3 for eye NK. That is huge..phase 3. Let';s get it over with.work or not.
So see? I make a scenariuo where they could possibly be big news last week in Oct…, different than any previous Thymosin boondoggle. but question is…as always….what will Finkel-Tinkel do? Finkelstein is a lot of the reason we trade where we do. Zero confidence. I'm tempted to buy for an October gamble….but Finkelstein……haunts us.
If you haven't, google "Thymosin conference 4th". You'll see who's showing up…. two of the Plenary speakers…….Michael Chopp of henry ford….TB 4 neuro…….but the surprise is Guido Rasi. As I mentioned, Rasi knows Goldstein well, I'm sure. Rasi knows Sigma Tau well. A couple years ago, Guido Rasi was named the HEAD of the EMEA…..that stands for European Medicines Evaluation Agency. Most of Europe works thru this agency for drug approvals…being European Union it makes sense rather than each country having their own approving agency.
So Guido Rasi heads up Europes drug approving agency. And he is going to Rome (he's based in London EMEA) toi aid Goldstein. Having the head of the European Drug approval agency is kinda' a big deal. It might get some pharma's to send someone, when they normally would not.
Do your own google search…"Guido Rasi thymosin"..you'll see a ton of hits. Let's hope it helps TB 4.
I think we're dead air till late October..and then things may pick up..depending. We still have that pesky tax loss selling every year…but hoipefully RGRX has been in the tank for a good number of years that maybe the ones left "holding the bag"…..may wait on some loss selling till they see what happens 2015.
Oct 23-25 is the Thymosin boondoggle in Rome.. A few interesting guesses. The two Plenary speakers…..one is Dr. Chopp of Henry Ford. If HF is going to do a trial, this would probably be the time they would announce it. Others from Henry ford are coming. As a bonus, the second Plenary speaker is Guido Rasi. He has long ties to ST…..and a lot of his own research has been in Thymosins…specifically TA-1, not TB 4. But a couple years ago, Guido Rasi was named HEAD of the EMEA! That is huge. EMEA is the pan european drug approval agency. Guido Rasi knows Thymosisn and I am very sure he knows Goldstein well.
The other thing that Finkel Tinkel is hiding from us is RGRX applying for the FDA Orphan Grant for TB 4 trial in eye NK. Since he went to all the trouble of applying for Orphan Status..I cannot imagine him not following up with a grant request. It could total $1.5 million. That would pay for eye NK trial…Henry Ford would pay for a stroke/neuro trial…..and we see what happens in China & Korea in mid 2015.
I think Finkel hides Henry ford trial news and also hides Orphan grant potential news. I think Finkel & Goldie need to make news at their boondoggle confab, so it appears to be a BIGGER news making thing…….which thus justifies the expense for all the Thymosin research attendees.