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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 142 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 minutes ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Who will PPC buy now?

    by snogreen Jul 27, 2014 4:32 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 28, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    I don't think it's Sanderson Farms (SAFM). PPC already does chicken better than them….if PPC is going to compete now with the likes, size, scale and distribution that Tyson has (especially after buying Hillshire for $7.7 billion)……….PPC needs something bigger than SAFM, and something outside of, but compliments, chicken. Pork and chicken are good fits. But the Chinese bought Smithfield…..and Tyson bought Hillshire. Figure out who is left in Pork… with scale and size…and that is a logical pick for PPC. There's one out there. but no one talks about it and no analyst follows it.

  • Reply to


    by bocamp1 Jul 28, 2014 11:49 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 28, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    My guess is it's almost all a long seller. . Don't know who's buying it..but I'd also guess there are MM's like NITE with a good short position still..…and CANT seems to be the sell side.

    I said that I just don't see any catalysts here. According to RGRX, we won't see any eye trial results (either China, Korea or US eye NK Orphan) till late Q2 2015. That's a long wait. What else is in between? RGRX has no money to do anything…so Finkel Tinkel collects his dough and plays on his computer all day. The only surprise, that I see possible, is if Henry Ford announces they are doing a small human test in neuro or heart. if that doesn't's dead air here til Q2 2015.

  • Reply to

    Slowly but surely.

    by aburges49 Jul 28, 2014 10:06 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 28, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    With PPC up about 92% in a year, and I expect earnings to be strong…….if PPC rises even more on the earnings……stock is then strong currency. My hunch is they sell some stock into strength, to better the balance sheet…..or that PPC considers their next big purchase using some stock and cash in combo.

    I don't think it is Bob Evans Farms.…too many restaurants….rather I think PPC could buy the second largest pork processor in the US….Smithfield was no# 1 and the Chinese took them. I think PPC looks maybe at the no#2 pork USA producer. And Tyson doesn't have it.

  • snogreen by snogreen Jul 28, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Interesting tidbit. A fellow named Don Jacjson was brought into PPC during their bankruptcy around 2008. he turned the company around. A few years ago, JBS was impressed how he did, and promoted him to JBS USA senior position……and moved a new president in of PPC….and that guy reports to Don Jackson at JBS USA. But get this…Don JAckson is a very experienced chicken man. The major part of his career was spent with….GUESS WHO??..Seaboard Foods of Athens GA. Now, Seaboard Foods of GA was SEB's chicken operation. In 2000, SEB decided they wanted to focus on Pork and they sold their chicken business to ConAgra for $375 million…..and at that time Don Jackson was head of Seaboard Foods (chicken)..ConAgra buys it, and they of course bring in their own people, and Don Jackson moves to a smaller chicken outfit in Calif……then after a few years, PPC brings him in to get PPC out of their troubles (bankruptcy).

    So now this 22 year veteran of Seaboard Foods (chicken) is one of the top executives at JBS USA….which I woudl venture to say that Bresy knows Don Jackson personally, if not very well..JAckson worked for Seaboard for 22 years! So I woudl hope that there is a direct line between Don Jackson of JBS USA (which means PPC) and Bresky! Question Don Jackson of JBS calling Bresky, and is Bresky taking the call. I hope so. But the ties of JAckson of JBS and Bresky go for 22 years. Don Jackson is very familiar with SEB pork, and JBS and PPC want pork! And SEB is the 2nd largest pork producer in the US.

  • Reply to

    Who will PPC buy now?

    by snogreen Jul 27, 2014 4:32 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 28, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    My bet is not Bob Evans. BOBE is almost all restaurants (561 of them)….the meat business is small, relatively. Also, it looked like BOBE had net income of about $31 million last year..and about a $1 biillion market cap. PPC doesn't want a restauarnt chain that doesn't make that much money. I don't think PPC interested.

  • Reply to

    Who will PPC buy now?

    by snogreen Jul 27, 2014 4:32 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 28, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    Well, seems you are right! They bought Tyson's chickens in Mexico. But that was just a few hundred million add on, but probably a good deal for PPC.

    My bet is that PPC is on the hunt for something bigger to give scal and efficiencies….in the $3 to $4 billion range. But who.

  • Reply to

    Interesting new listing on Euroscan.....

    by donker3 Jul 27, 2014 12:36 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 28, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    RGRX already got Orphan status for EB with TB4. RGRX also got Orphan Drug funding monies from them, to do the trial. RGRX started the EB trial around 2005 or 2006. It took around 7 years to complete….maybe 30 or so patients. I think that RGRX screwed up the trial (as they have trials before)…..I doubt you get much interest from this 'Euroscan" thing….because the results of RGRX phase 2 EB showed that the placebo got as much, or higher, cure rates than the TB 4 patients. but thats almost impossible because there is NO drug therapy for EB. But anyone who looks at TB 4 now won't have much interest, because the PLACEBO beat out TB 4. Until RGRX can explain that, or do another trial where a water based inert gel does not cure EB…………then EB is dead. That's why RGRX sold EB rights in USA to the South Koreans. If Finkel Tinkel thought EB rights had value or could work…., he would have kept them. Also? I believe that Sigma Tau has the rights to TB 4 for skin and wound areas… Europe. You better check that. I don't think this Euroscan is right to say they are available in Europe for EB. ST may own them already.

  • Who will PPC buy now? Smithfield Foods went to the Chinese..Tyson overpaid to take Hillshire from PPC's grip. But with Smithfield to China….and Tyson now a far bigger entity…if PPC wants to scale up to compete now, they will need more. PPC has to get bigger and more efficient to compete with Tyson now.

    So what will PPC do? Any guesses who they will buy? I have a hunch who would be very logical….but I'm not here to hype. I'd rather hear what readers here think PPC will put on the radar for their next target. Any ideas?

  • Reply to

    JBS should buy SEB?

    by snogreen Jul 26, 2014 4:53 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 27, 2014 7:37 AM Flag

    It wouldn't be JBS buying us out. It would be PPC. Look what PPC almost paid for Hillshire:

    "Hillshire announced a $6.6 billion deal for Pinnacle on May 12, and Pilgrim's Pride announced an unsolicited $6.4 billion offer for the company on May 27. Two days later Tyson joined the fray with its own $6.8 billion offer, which prompted Pilgrim's to up its offer $7.7 billion. "

    PPC could easily finannce buying ALL of SEB. PPC has net of all cash, only about $200 million in debt……very low for an $8 billion company. but! SEB is not levereaged at buying SEB doesn't add debt…SEB sits on about $490 million of cash and maybe $140 million of debt.. And that debt is wiped out soon…because Butterball has a pay in kind note that mature in mid 2017 to SEB for $129 million. Also, SEB is taking delivery of two big ships soon. SEB paid for them (I thihnk $60 million cash??) But on delivery, SEB is selling them, taking back the cash and leasing them back and that becomes a tax deduction..

    PPC has little debt…..SEB net of cash has zero debt.and a few hundred $$ million cash after. So a combo of SEB and PPC coudl easily handle "levering up" if need be. Also? PPC reports earnings this week. I assume they will be high. Solid demand for chicken and low feed prices. PPC may want to wait til their shares hit new all time highs…thats more equity to play with..and high profits and share prices make borrowing easier. And rates are historically low right now, they may not be in 2 years time.

    SEB is far and away..a better buy for PPC and JBS, than Hillshire ever was. And SEB woudl cost way less than $7 (plus) billion too.

  • Gee, I looked a little closer at Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) 75% owner, JBS of Brazil. PPC shouldn't buy SEB's pork division…JBS shoudl buy ALL of SEB. JBS does huge amounts of food in South America….SEB has the largest sugar outfit in Argentina..70,000 acres of it. That would fit JBS……JBS also does biodiesel….SEB does biodiesel……SEB has huge container ship operation…..JBS runs ports and transportation in South America…..Seaboard container does large business to South Ameriica, if JBS buys SEB, they get ALL the USA container ports (and ships) that Seabord has……the almost 90 acre port SEB has in Miami is not possible to be replicated. Try buying 90 acres of water front port land in Miami. SEB has similar in opther ports, like Houston.

    JBS also generates electricity. SEB also has a small division that generates electricity, in the Dominican republic.

    SEB has large grain trading and milling operations.many in Africa…..JBS is light in that area of grains and buying SEB woudl give instant presence.

    More I look at it…….SEB is one of the most ideal merger fits I've seen in a long time……JBS should buyout all SEB. Almost everything they do compliments the other. And JBS does not have what SEB has……yet. I don't know if PPC is interested in SEB's pork division..they shoudl be. But if I was their Banker….I'd say…'Forget buying just pork division, the home run is to buy ALL of SEB, for JBS."….but would Bresky sellout? if he ever did, the offer woudl have to be over the top…and a helluva lot more than the $2,900 we are at now..

  • Reply to

    It's Awful

    by sdhoolteach2000 Jul 26, 2014 9:19 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 26, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    market makers cx=an't sit on an order…they have to execute it. I'm not sure who'd they'd "cross" it to.

    I don't think much in 4th Q… hope an eye trial update? I didn't see that any were starting in 2014………all said early 2015. So what update can RGRX give that is share price moving? A completed eye trial, with statistical good results, will move RGRX price. Announcing the start of a trial won't do that much. And don't forget that December is always tax loss selling seaon and the MM's DO KNOW that..they drop the bid, knowing sellers are coming.…

    You hope for neuro monies? I guess I would too…….but there is no indication or RGRX…that they have applied for any…nor has Henry Ford said anything about doing a human test. RGRX is silent on it.

  • Reply to

    It's Awful

    by sdhoolteach2000 Jul 26, 2014 9:19 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 26, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    it was only a few thousand shares traded..the MM's don't control that. It is what it is….all MM's do the "penny up… from any bid" thing. HAppens all time. I bid $60.00 for a stock, in three seconds the MM shows $60.01 bid. You can't really win. And a lot of that "penny up" stuff is all automated computers doing it.

    Worry MORE about who is running RGRX company, not running where it's traded. If Finkel-Tinkel was able to get any interest in TB 4, the share price woudl rise. He can't do squat……I see no catalyst here until early to mid 2015, when a couple eye trials should be underway, or done. What else is there until then? The only long shot is Henry Ford announcing they would do a small Phs 2 in heart or neuro…but Henry Ford has played for 3-4 years with TB 4 neuro……and they don't seem to have interest in sponsoring a small human test. but who knows. If Henry ford had no intention of doing a small human test, then why did they bother doing all that pre clinical testing..with up to 6 of their full time researchers?? I don't have an answer.

    Only other thing is I expect RGRX to get an FDA Orphan Grant for an eye NK trial. That may be announced this Fall (that is IF RGRX bothered to apply), and if RGRX get's it, it is paid in Nov. It could be up to $1.5 million, paid over three in theory they could get almost $400k by year end 2014 and another $400k in early 2015…that could fund a small eye NK orphan trial.

  • Reply to

    new abstract, haling bone fractures

    by snogreen Jul 22, 2014 10:04 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 22, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    yahoo won't let rest of paset in. Stinks. go to Pub med and search for Thymosin (not TB 4).

  • Reply to

    new abstract, haling bone fractures

    by snogreen Jul 22, 2014 10:04 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 22, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    "yahoo cut rest off. here is.

    Biomechanical analysis showed that Tβ4 -treated calluses had a 41% increase in peak force to failure (p 

  • In the Journal of Orthopedic Research, TB 4 aids healing bone fractures in a mouse study. Not that anyone cares, our our dear leader, Finkel-Tinkel , woudl be able to do anything with it. Any other tiny spoec biotech woudkl have a field day with the abstracts out on TB 4. See if yahoo allows me to paste it:

    "Thymosin β4 (Tβ4 ) is a regenerative peptide that we hypothesized would promote healing of fractured bone. Mice received a bilateral fibular osteotomy and were given i.p. injections of either Tβ4 (6 mg/kg) or saline. Calluses from saline- and Tβ4 -treated mice were analyzed for: (1) biomechanical properties and (2) composition using micro-computed tomography (µCT) and histomorphometry. Biomechanical analysis showed that Tβ4 -treated calluses had a 41% increase in peak force to failure (p 

  • I wonder if Pilgrims Pride (or their bankers) has contacted SEB. I can't see how they wouldn't, at least that's my gamble. Smithfield Foods went to the Chinese. Hillshire went to Tyson. If Pilgrims wants to stay competitive and expand distribution and products beyond chicken, the only player left of size and scope that will push PPC into those leagues to compete with Tyson…is SEB. Also of interest to PPC would be the 49% stake SEB owns of Butterball Turkey. If they bought SEB's pork division (2nd largest in US)…….AND they bought SEB's stake in butterball……they woudl get a dominant stake in pork and turkey…on top of their PPC chicken. Actually, I think SEB pork division and Butterball, make far more logical business sense for PPC to buy, than Hillshire did. So will PPC contact Bresky? Will Bresky take the call? Woudl he sell out at 12-15 x EBIDTA? Would he sell his stake in Butterball with it? IS Bresky still buying back stock in open market? I've bought a few more shares. If anything were to happen, I would guess it woudl within the next 4 months or so. Plenty of time for a banker to do due diligence, and for Bresky to ask top price. I hope he takes the call, I hope he sells.

  • snogreen snogreen Jul 18, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    SO tell me your oinion instead of cryptic #$%$. Supposedly RGRX syas there coudl be three eye trials in early 2015 (Korea, China and US). No partner has surfaced I don't think that's likely. Ad I've said the only unknown is what Henry Ford is doing. I don't understand why they did a bucn of years of TB 4 neuro, only to then stop. Buty then henry Ford comes out with heart and TB 4 work. But all this was just in mice. Dr. Chopp has ties to JNJ. So I think the only possible good unknown is if Henry Ford announces some kind of neuro or heart test….done there (physician sponsored)…..not a full large phase 2, just a small one to see. Beyond that…..the eye trials mentioned won't have results till mid 2015.assuming it starts on time and patient sign up goes fast.

    So stuff elsewhere for a while. But we coudl pop a bit if Henry Ford announces they do a test. but who knows.

  • Reply to

    piling it on the ask side

    by thebasiles777 Jul 18, 2014 9:34 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 18, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    until we see some of that volume actually trade, you don't know if it is a MM spooking the market with a large short offering, or if it is just someone else who is very long and wants out. Trade stuff elsewhere for next handful months . We may have a few new trials coming but they won't start for 6 months it seems. A long wait of nothingness.

  • Reply to


    by thebasiles777 Jul 18, 2014 9:16 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 18, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    The MM's don't have to cover any shorts. IMO? they'd rather just stay short side, because they believe RGRX is a POS penny stock on it's way to BK. The MM's use a MM exemption. they don't have to borrow shares or report their short to SEC. they only report dialy to FINRA.

  • Reply to

    200,000 shares .19 + .20

    by thebasiles777 Jul 17, 2014 10:18 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 17, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    false innuendo B7….I never bought at $3. but I do have some low $2's. But not that much. you're wrong. My low buy was 0.15…I admit to not getting any 0.05 cent share area. But I did get a lot around .15 to .18….and my basis is now around 0.55 cents. Still I'm not happy at that.

    It appears to be a long seller on the large offer. That cannot be called manipulation by a MM…it's simply someone who wants to sell..unless the FINRA short dailies tell us otherwise.

    Seller can't be Koreans either, as they own over 10% of RGRX and they have to file any buy or sell within 3 business days. It isn't Cavazza selling either. they own over 10% also.

    No sense wringing your hands. Three possible eye trials won't start until very early 2015. the only wild card I see out there is if Henry Ford announces they are doing a small trial in heart or neuro. I don't see anythong else on the horizon….so it's pretty much dead money. Go trade other stuff for a while.

16.12Aug 27 4:01 PMEDT

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