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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 265 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 2:21 PM Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • snogreen by snogreen May 16, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    interesting tidbit, 10-Q. RGRX hired a PR firm in April at $5,000 a month, for only 6 months. And they GAVE the PR firm 30,00 shares! Read:

    "In April 2015 we entered into a contract with an investor relations firm to provide services for six months. Under the agreement the Company will pay $5,000 per month and has issued 30,000 shares of common stock as compensation. "

    So I guess there will be some PR push, but probably not till after teh warrants go away.too many games.Also interesting that the deal is only for 6 months...which means they will probably push hard on a PR once Lee's China trial starts )soon?).......deal goes thru end of OCTOBER..which may be enough time for the EYE NK trial to get filed w. FDA.

  • Some very strange numbers for Q1 trading and holdings. For the first Q 24,442 shares of SEB traded. I went to the SEC 13-F filings. I added up all the buys, and sells..and sold out positions. The figure is that with all that.institutional holdings incresed by a mere 444 shares Q1....but 24,442 shares traded. That leaves 24,000 shares traded and un acounted for. I highly doubt that 24,000 shares traded on a daily market maker buy, sell, buy sell action.SEB is too volatile. In the fourth quarter 2014...there was a similar number. Add up all the institutional buys, sells and sold out positions.....and there was another 20,000 shares traded and unaccounted for. That adds up to Q4 and Q1.....44,000 shares traded and no real increase in institutional ownershop to account for that 44,000 shares. Retail did not buy it.I doubt MM's traded 44,000 shares like daily buy and sells....and SEB did not buy back a single share in Q4 and Q1..so where are those 44,000 shares? Short interest is similar at 4,,800 shares. Institutions ADDED 444 shares in Q1, but SEB declined about 500 points or so. ALSO? 16,611 additional SEB shares traded between April 1 and May 15. It would take about a 58,500 share position to own 5% of SEB. Q4 and Q1 have 44,000 traded & unaccunted for....April 1 to MAy 15 another 16,611......that comes up to 60,611 possible unaccounted for (in institutional filing holdings) unaccounted for. And again..SEB did not buy back a single share and retail does not play much in SEB. SO WHERE has that stock gone to? just a question.

  • From Jan 1 till right now....12,449,700 RGRX has traded.. Today is the last day to file 13-F holdings with SEC for Q1. As of now, no other institution shows up owning RGRX, except Dumont Investments..62,000 shares..and they have owned those shares as long as many of us.. I would have thought with almost 12.5 million shars traded, at least one institution would file owning something.......but nothing. It could change. they have till end of day tio file.and some places don't seem to file for a couple days after (Buffet and Fidelity seem late.not that they'd own RGRX).

    So WHERE did 12.5 million shares go? Some here for sure. No institutions.....maybe a lot did go to Korean investors realizing G Tree was valued at MULTIPLE times that of RGRX....but RGRX owns the whole cow.... G tree a slice.

  • Reply to

    no sellers/ buyers waiting for news

    by thebasiles777 May 15, 2015 9:46 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 15, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    No, what we need is not more retail investors. What we need is INSTITUTIONAL investors. The MM's will game and scam the retail investor here all day long, and have for YEARS....because they CAN.in the kind of smaller size that retail buys. but the MM's are in much bigger trouble if any INSTITUTIOANL investors want in RGRX...because for any institution to make a dent , they need a lot of stock. If the MM's just see a FEW good investment firm names owning and buying RGRX, the MM's will be far more scared to "short and scam" RGRX as they do to us retail investors now...because if some good institutions climb on board.......the games are over for the MM's...any good fund buying a million or two shares.....adds up to only a $500,000 or $1 million play....needless to say? that is CHUMP CHANGE to them......and many funds have a retail following....if they see a good manager buying RGRX.they will pile in after.

  • MM's shorted 20,000 warrants yesterday. Kind of an indication that if they short them, they will use their trade power to see that RGRX is below 56 cents on MAy 21. They thus think it is free money to them.because who woudl exercise a warrant at 56 cents if the stock closes BELOW 56 cents? It is just a scenario, but if someone out there wants SIZE in RGRX and they don';t mind paying 57-58 cents net net for RGRX common...the MM's will probably shortt you all kinds of size near the end of expiration. They think it free money. You couild not go in and buy 1-4 million shares easily in common But if RGRX common is 50 to 54 cents on MAy 21...the warrants exerciseable at 56 cents will trade for fractions of a penny.. if I wanted a couple million RGRX shares..a few pennies above whhere we are now.I woudl do so thru the warrants. No rule stops you from exercising even if the common is BELOW the exercise price on close day. I just don't know if any big buyer is out there thinking this way. hope so.

  • Reply to

    will there be news tomorrow?

    by thebasiles777 May 14, 2015 7:23 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 15, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    The news we need is that Lee's has final Chinese Gov't approval to start signing patients for the China Dry Eye trial. And we hope that a portion of the trial (hopefully ALL) will be done with Beijing patients....because as I posted, 21% of people in Beijing have a dry eye problem.massive pollution. This is the best shot for a trial win. If done in Hong Kong.far less pollution because there isn't ant dirty polluting industry.and HK is on the water......better breeze and air quality. Once China trial starts, we have about 5 months till trial report. If TB 4 works, it will be the FIRST human clinical trial, with porotocol endpoints, showing healing efficacy of TB 4. At that point, all the investors who panned and trashed TB 4 because of mgmt's 20 year record of trial errors and mishaps...will have to wonder."Maybe it does work." Then RGRX is no longer a $50 million market cap.with a US Phase 3 in Eye NK, and a Phase 2/3 dry eye starting very soon after. China is the key to unlock value. We need it to start and we need a trial win there. if it works (?), the fireworks really start.

  • To give an example of how SEB front loads CAPEX and most likely unsderstates book value.......SEB says they have a total of $849 millionj of "assets" in Pork division. Struck me odd. So I checked SEC filings for 2013, 2014 and 2015.. In just those THREE years, SEB has lowed $203,000,000 into Pork, almost all into Guymon OK plant..finishing barns, feed mills, etc...But SEB built that facility about 15 years ago?..or so? There is only so long they can keep plowing in $203 million for finishing barns and feed mills...save regular maintainence and ususal expenses. You cannnot expand "finishing" barns forever. So now SEB goes 50-50 JV with Triumph Foods for a huge processing facility. And the release today clearly said that the hogs for this facility will come both from Triumph members and from SEB's GUYMON OK facility. See? Has SEB front loaded so much hog capacity....they need to shift to new JV plant? And for the shortts who will "negate, trash and short" that SEB is on the hook for their 1/2 of a $200 million facility......that works out to a tiny $33 million a year for 2015, 2016 and completion 2017 July. That $100 million is small compared to the $203 million SEB pumped into Guymon 2013-2015. AND WHY HASN'T SEB upped the ASSET VALUATION for that? The $849 million the "value" it at....from teh VERY START of doing it about 15 years ago....has only crept up slowly......but where is the $203 million?. An interstimg project woudl be to go back to year 2000 and ADD UP from SEC reports how much SEB spent on Guymon.. My guess is it is a LOT more than what SEB tells investors it is worth on "asset" basis.....$849 million.....if in just three years 2013-1015 they plowed $203 million to it. Undervalued! and Bresky know it too well. He shoudl buy back stock on the idiot sell downs....and takle SEB all but private private over a few years..... Contrary to what the shorts and our seller think, SEB is FAR from bankrupt..because of a lousy Q1..and Bresky has a 2-5 year plan.

  • Reply to

    turkey flu in South Dakota

    by islandcwboy1972 May 14, 2015 12:16 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 14, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    From what I read, Butterball got hit some.....but a big hit was to Jennie O turkey in the upper midwest.........Hormel owns them. If Butterball not hit that badly...........it is $$$ to them.because Turkey prices go up... with less supply.........and there was too much corn already...so if they killed 30 million chickens and turkey's........that makes an even larger oversupply. 30 million dead birds don't need corn. I expect a good Q2 for turkey and a FAR FAR better one in pork.which June hogs 84 cents - UP FROM 60 cents in Q1. And Corn is down about 30 cents a bushel in from this flu. Lag time to hit pork is in Q2. Q2 will be better. Also, SEB alluded to some hedges in heh trading divison that you may see come back in Q2, but they made Q1 numbers look bad in that division.

    The sellers are nutts. The shorts here are VERY aggressive w/ the one share whack down prints. SEB announced this new JV for a big new pork plant with Triumph. They mentioned it for EXPORTS. Timing is there. CHINA is relaxing PORK import in 2016. It is why JBS bought a big pork outfit in Australia. Set up for China. The new plant coming is RIGHT NEXT to the airport. SEB MArine continuing to expand .....and Cuba may open...........and oil still down 40% off highs. I hope the shorts get f'''d. And I hope that Bresky announces another Dutch Tender...just like he did when Q1 numbers for 2014 were bad. I hope he repeats.

  • FYI....here is the title of the abstract just out on neuroblastoma and TB 4:

    "Thymosin B 4 is a determinant of drug sensitivity for Fenretinide and Vorinostat combination therapy in neuroblastoma."

    those are the two combo drugs they use in neuroblastoma. What their work found was that low levels of TB 4 made it harder for the combo drug.......you'll have to read the abstract. But it would seem to me that idf these combo drugs are approved and basically safe....if they get less effective w/ patients w/ low TB 4......then a very simple trial woudl be to add TB 4 to the combo and see what happens. TB 4 is safe and side effect free..and the combo drugs are approved already. Wonder if Dr. Chopp at Henry ford knows of this.....

  • Reply to

    abstract: Beijing Eye Study, 21% have it

    by snogreen May 14, 2015 12:34 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 14, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    still cut off, sorry...

    "Conclusions The dry eye symptoms as evaluated subjectively in a questionnaire occurred in about 21% of the adult population in China, with associations to age, female gender, urban region, and undercorrection of a refractive error. Measurement of the tear-film break-up time, assessment of the corneal fluorescein staining, slit-lamp-based examination..."

  • Reply to

    abstract: Beijing Eye Study, 21% have it

    by snogreen May 14, 2015 12:34 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 14, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    YAhoo cut off some:

    Results Symptoms of a dry eye felt ‘often’ or ‘at all times’ were present in 411 subjects (21.0%). In a multivariate analysis, dry eye symptoms were significantly associated with age (P

  • teacher just mentiond GLAUCOMA in China area. RGRX has US Patent for that. But forget that for now. ere is abstract from 2008 on 'The Beijing Eye Study". Amazingly this large study showed that 21% suffered Dry Eye. Since then population has grown and pollution is worse, so probably MORE than 21% now. HUGE market there. Also why we NEED China dry sye study to have Beijing patients over Hong Kong (far less pollution):

    "Purpose To study the prevalence and associations of dry eye symptoms in adult Chinese.

    Methods The Beijing Eye Study is a population-based study in northern China, which included 4439 of 5324 subjects invited to participate with an age of 40+ years (response rate: 83.4%). For the present study, a random sample was taken consisting of 1957(44.1%) subjects (1112 women; 56.9%). Dry eye symptoms were evaluated with (1) an interviewer-assisted questionnaire; (2) measurement of the tear-film break-up time; (3) assessment of the fluorescein staining of the cornea; (4) slit-lamp-based examination of a meibomian gland dysfunction; and (5) Schirmer's test.

    Results Symptoms of a dry eye felt ‘often’ or ‘at all times’ were present in 411 subjects (21.0%). In a multivariate analysis, dry eye symptoms were significantly associated with age (P

  • Reply to

    new abstract. TB 4 in Neuroblastoma.

    by snogreen May 14, 2015 10:09 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 14, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Well, as usual.....what we don't know is... if I found something that RGRX knows about and just "warehouses" announcing it till they are ready to. We do not know if RGRX is supporting any such work in Australia. I don't think RGRX can do a PR unless they are sponsoring the research. But regardless, it is still interesting. It expands the neuro work done by Henry Ford.. And from what I gather..getting a prognosis that you have a neuroblastoma brain cancer.is pretty much a dath sentence. they are damn hard to treat.. But from what these guys see..is that the therapy may have for neuroblastoma does not do as well with patients with "low levels" of inate TB 4. So a simple answer might be....to simply add safe and side effect free TB 4 boosters into the treatment plan. Seems like a pretty simple idea........and not that hard to do a trial on....since TB 4 is not the primary drug.....and again.importantly safe and side effect free....it woudl just be added to the cocktail, as an adjuvant to perhaps (?) boost efficacy. So they think...

  • Tis should interest Henry ford & Dr. Chopp. A team of researchers (New Zeland/Australia) studting the disease" neuroblastoma"..I think a kind of neuro/brain cancer. They find that low levels of TB 4 inhibits teh therapy they give. Look on Pubmed. A lot of science , but here is the end of teh abstract. More evidence for neuro relatd applications? Call henry Ford!

    ".....The 4-HPR and SAHA combination significantly increased mRNA expression of thymosin-beta-4 (Tβ4) and decreased mRNA expression of retinoic acid receptor α (RARα). Importantly, the up-regulation of Tβ4 and down-regulation of RARα were both necessary for the 4-HPR + SAHA cytotoxic effect on neuroblastoma cells. Moreover, Tβ4 knockdown in neuroblastoma cells increased cell migration and blocked the effect of 4-HPR + SAHA on cell migration and focal adhesion formation. In primary human neuroblastoma tumor tissues, low expression of Tβ4 was associated with metastatic disease and predicted poor patient prognosis. Our findings demonstrate that Tβ4 is a novel therapeutic target in neuroblastoma, and that 4-HPR + SAHA is a potential therapy for the disease."

    The last two sentaces key"

    "In primary human neuroblastoma tumor tissues, low expression of Tβ4 was associated with metastatic disease and predicted poor patient prognosis. Our findings demonstrate that Tβ4 is a novel therapeutic target in neuroblastoma, and that 4-HPR + SAHA is a potential therapy for the disease."

  • I've been buying pretty good below $3,400......too low. Q1 for SEB is always a low quarter....it is a seasonal low always for Pork. But the shleers and short act like SEB is going bankrupt. And they sell & trade SEB like hogs are going to 50 cents. exact OPPOSITE happened. hohgs up from Jan/Feb lows of 60 cents to now 84 cents..big% move.

    Look at SEB and Bresky history. He owns 77.5% of SEB, or 910,000 shares. He is DOWN $1.3 BILLION on paper from the highs!. SEB reported on May 2, 2014..earnings as awalys for Q1 were bad. SEB stock tanks. FIVE BUSINESS DAYS AFTER that crash, SEB/Bresky surprise with a $100 million tender offer..UP almost 500 POINTS FROM WHERE IT WAS! SEB released on a FRIDAY 2014. SEC says there is a grace periosd after earnings (now). SEB sat the next Mon - Friday...then the Monday after (May 12) they announded the tender.

    SEB traded at $3,225 today....I missed a fill there as a MM bid me up by ONE penny. I am buying. Bresky sits oin $645 millionn cash and all divisions looking up (save Trading) Bresky is crazy not to do another Dutch Tender at this level. We'll see. Shorts are VERY aggressive... not giving up..they turbo charge the seller we have. Short interest INCREASED, even though SEB is DOWN $1,400 from highs. There are only 260,000 shares outstanding that Bresky does not control. He should bid in a Dutch Tender for 100,000 shares. Basically he slowly takes SEB private ON THE CHEAP by doing so. SEB has $645 MILLION CASH earning almost nothing. I'm buying down here. Time to do it is on idiots panicking on an always bad Q1.

  • SEb is trading like it is going bankrupt. It is down $1,400 from teh high trades. but those high trades of over $4,600 were not reality either. I started buying pretty heavy just over a year ago...when SEB collapsed on bad Q1 numbers....so I am okay but did buy all way up low to mid 3,000's...This collapse is not justifed. Pork was bad, but we knew that. Hogs were 60 vcnets in Q1. June hogs are 84 cents now.......that is a big % jump..and from Q1 to now Q2 CORN prices are down 30-40 CENTS a bushel. Whats not to love? CAsh & short term investments INCREASED from $525 million to $645 million. AND NO LONG TERM DEBT! The Butterball loan die 2017 is goos as cash. That stands at $145 million. So SEB is bascially sitting on just under $800 million cash if they need with NO LT debt! MArine division is now making money, after losing 425 mill eac year previous. More Ports added....Cuba may open up. SEB pouring money into Pork and Marine.....which they have for years. That CAPEX will slow down sometime. Turkey divison did great! While flu may hurt Butterball some, much of the flu was in uppder midwest.where Butterbal isn't as big as Hormels 'Jennie O" turkey growers. I don't think Butterball hurt that bad. SO? MAny turkeys/chickens were killed! Which means prices RISE. Good for Butterball! THEN CAORN PRICES FALL..because 30 million chickens/turkey killed.....now excess corn. GREAT for B-Ball! GREAT for SEB pork!

    A coiupel sellers and shports control SEB. I buy a few shares down every $75. bid and wait. I get ht. WAY overdone. Q2 is looking great!

  • Reply to

    good query, piano

    by snogreen May 13, 2015 2:18 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 13, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    PIPE deals for RGRX got them little money and put the shares into a death spiral. we all were here for it. Everyone knows when you succumb to doing PIPE deals, you are on the ropes financially....so it is just short and sell, short and sell.....all the way down. I'm sure there are traders at places that do nothing but see who is doing PIPE deals...and when they do.......SELL..and ride them downwards further...

    Lincoln probably made a little bit of money on the PIPE common shares. Then they put the warrants aside and wait. if you do enough PIPE deals in a year....you trade out for the initial profit, and then sit for 5 years on all kinds of warrant deals....and if just a couple work out.....it's $$$

  • snogreen by snogreen May 13, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    Good question, piano.re: Lincoln Park 7 Sigma Tau financing form 2011.. They are indeed 'in the money"...and they expire mid January 2016.....about 7 months from now. I haven't seen that they were exercised yet.. It will be about 2 million shares dilution.....but raise almost $800,000. My hunch is they wait till December or January to exercise and see how things shake out in trial coming.China. warrants wewre a freebie to them...just ride it. from RGRX:

    ".....affiliates of the Company’s largest stockholder, Sigma-Tau Group, have purchased $950,000 of the Company’s common stock, and a new institutional investor, Lincoln Park Capital Fund, LLC, has purchased $500,000 of the Company’s common stock. All shares were purchased at $0.27 per share, a 35% premium over the previous day’s closing price. In connection with these purchases, the Company issued to the purchasers common stock warrants to purchase 40% of the number of shares purchased, or an aggregate of 2,148,148 shares, at an exercise price of $0.38 per share over a five-year period. The transactions closed on January 7, 2011."

    Lincoln Park is a PIPE investor. I am 99.9% sure they sold every shares ASAP after the deal...trade that for a profit...and ride the warrants for free.

  • Reply to

    little warrant action

    by snogreen May 13, 2015 12:58 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 13, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    If your firm says they capped your order, but nit execute yet.....they supposedly have a commitment to fill your order at 0.0220.......and they delay doing a higher market order 'fill" because they think they may get a lower price. But if they say they capped yo at 0.0220.....then that shoudl be the highest that you pay..by teh end of teh day....and perhaps they try to fill you at even 2 cents..

    Are you sure you want to be buying warrants at 2 cents with RGRX at 48 cents? Buying warrants at 2 cents makes sense only if you want to exercise them. It's a small order.It is a different kind of play if someone bids for a coupel million warrants. they would want size. you're just playing with 100 shares.

  • Not much action in warrants. With RGRX at 48 cents..now 8 cents below exercise, I figured there woudl be sellers willing to get out at 2 cents on warrants.take what they can.......but very few trade. MAybe they think RGRX trades up by next week, but the window is closing fast. If there isn't more volume showing up....with 4.6 million outstanding.....then it may be those that are long are 'all or none"......just let em' expire and take tax loss......but they aren't selling for 2 cents either..

OB
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