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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 118 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 3:19 PM Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    today's trading (transparency)

    by thebasiles777 Jul 14, 2014 10:58 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 14, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    you have to wait till the FINRA trade stats for today before you cry foul and conspiracy. If FINRA reports that almost all volume today was SHORT… opening….then your point valid. If FINRA shows that the 20,000 was not short, but a LONG seller…then no "foul". If it is a long seller, it's perfectly unserstandable that they might not show all the size the have to sell, at once. Let 20k go, then show more if you have to sell. That is just wise trading, not cheating.

    The ones who cheat here are the MM's (mostly NITE)…they short RGRX to cap it….and never have to report the short to SEC (just FINRA)……and if they don't report to the SEC, that tells you they are naked shorting - because MM's are exempt from SEC rules that they have to borrow stock..as long as it is in the "normal" course of "making a daily market". NITE doesn't really make a daily market……..they just keep shorting RGRX - as a POS penny stock. And they don't have to tell the SEC anything. THAT is market maker abuse. FINRA stats tell us that. But wait and see what FINRA shows for today.

  • Reply to

    Will SEB buy more?

    by snogreen Jun 27, 2014 6:02 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jul 1, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Yeah, hormel moved awful fast to spend $500 for some crazy milk company It makes Hormel less attractive, when they do expensive "de-worse - ify" buyouts. So mgmt and BOD at Hormel are scared…….and seem silly. But by the same token, Mr. Bresky may also be even stupider……because if PPC ever offered him 15 times EBOTDA on our Pork division, and he refused to take it….THAT is crazy and silly.

    Netlosstoo…you threw out a guess that SEB pork divisoon could do perhaps $300 million in EBIDTA in 2014. And Pilgrims pride (PPC) was willing to bid 15 times EBIDTA for Hillshire…..if PPC did same for our Pork division…..that comes out to a $4.5 BILLION offer…which woudl value pork division at about $4,100 per SEB share (pre capital gains taxes). SEB is now at about $3,060. So just the Pork division, at 15 x EBIDTA….is ALONE worth almost 35% MORE than what ALL of SEB trades for now. If Bresky did not own 77% of SEB, this stock would have been put in play immediately after Hillshire. The discout to valuation is too huge. We jjust need to know…WILL Bresky entertain any offer for pork at 15 times EBIDTA…..or will he do the wrong thing - so they keep pork so young Bresky family members work their way up in it…..just as Bresky jr. did.

  • Reply to

    Will SEB buy more?

    by snogreen Jun 27, 2014 6:02 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 30, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    No, I don't think they are trying to take SEb private. there are advantages to the Bresky family for having SEB stay as a public company…like estate and family issues. Shares of stock can be divided and distributed equally as family needs (estates) come up. I don't know how "extended" the Brasky family is, from it's founders……..but I bet there is a lot of kids, grand kids and great grand kids….who all are tied into the family holdings of SEB. But that said, it doesn't mean that Bresky family might not consider maximizing the value of the 76% stake they own. Easy to do! You don't NEED your OWN PERSONAL money……just use the several hundred milliion the books at SEB to buy back shares. Why use your own money?

    The million dolar question is…WILL Bresky sell out Pork? I think the odds just increased a bit..because Hormel meats just spent close to 1/2 billion on a dumb acquisition…..you don't have to be a genius to see that the sole reason Horemel did it was to make it's finances more stretched…..with a buyout that has nothing to do with meats. If Homel pays $450 million for it……a buyer of Hormel will pay to fork out that extra $450 million….probaby by asuming the debt that Hormel took to do it.

    All this makes SEB pork more attractive……..

  • Wow, interestiung item. Hormel Foods seems to be in a BIg rush to make expensive, non meat buyouts. They just bough a company that has nothing to do with meats, Muscle Milk? The code life and sitribution makes no sense……they are sold in differerent areas of the supermarket. Hormel must be very scared of someone that has them in theor sights. Best defense? Spens a ton to make studpid acquisition in the name of supposed "diversity"

    This makes SEB's prok division even MORE desirable. Seems like Hormel would rather debt up it's Co….on silly buys, than risk being a hostile offer.:

    "Hormel Foods agreed Monday to buy Muscle Milk maker CytoSport Holdings for about $450 million, a fresh move by the meat processor to expand into other retail food businesses."

    Are you listening Mr. Bresky? Hormel just got LESS attractives as a buyout candidate because they waste money. SEB pork division just became more valued because it is NOT diluted .

    Mr. Nresky…please dream of 15 times EBIDTA for pork? It's billions.

  • Here's the quandry for TB 4 in EB…and good luck to Koreans. The results are posted on clinicaltrials.gov.

    There were 30 pts total. 8 of those were placebo. 22 were TB 4. Of the 22 TB 4, 5 dropped out….but they are still counted as using TB 4 even tho' they did not finish. And you can asume it did not work otherwise they wouldn't have dropped out. So TB 4 had 17 pts.

    The final report stated that in placebo 5 of 8 had their EB lesions totally heal. Of the 17 getting TB 4, 8 had complete EB lesion healing. The issue the FDA will have is that in the PLACEBO arm, about 63% were healed. In the TB 4 arm TB 4 healed 36%..so 63% placebo, 36% TB 4. BUT, that 36% includes ALL 22 pts. FDA rules state that if a pt took TB 4 and drops out, the drop outs are stillcounted in TB 4 arm. I think that is very unfair. It shoudl only be counted in the 17 pts who finished TB 4 fully.

    So how does one explain to the FDA that there is NO THERAPY for EB…..but an inert plecbo creme cured 63%….and TB 4 cured a goodly number too. What's the FDA to do?? A water gel won't heal EB…..so was the TB 4 mixed up with placebo? Only explanation I can get. Another screwed up RGRX trial.

  • Reply to

    DIGITAL ARIA G-treeBNT website

    by thebasiles777 Jun 30, 2014 12:23 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 30, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Didn't read to me like they were going direct to the FDA. I don't think the FDA would do much for them. There is no treatment for EB. .especially if RGRX used an inert placebo (probably water gel) for placebo in the phs 2 we did. The problem was that the placebo gel, which can't work, otherwise all EB sufferers woudl use it…….got a good efficacy response…….the other problem is that the TB 4 also got an efficacy response. So it's one of a couple things….either a water based placebo gel is the new cure for EB..…or TB 4 is..…you can't have it both ways if both showed efficacy. That is what the FDA will tell them. But the far more likely scenario is that since it was a 6 year trial……the placebo and TB 4 got mixed up. So all patients showed efficacy. I just don't see how a water based placebo gel successfully treated EB.. The FDA hands are tied. They know placebo gel won't work, but the whole trial needs to be re-done.which won't happen because it took 6-7 years for RGRX do do it…there are no EB patients willing to do trials. None want placebo risk. You'd probably get a lot of pts if it was SOLEY a TB 4 trial.parents will try any drug as long as it's safe. But the FDA demands blinded and placebo trials.

    EB is a mess for RGRX.

  • Avon seems excited about using TB 4. They just had pubished another patent application, on top of the one they received. Take some time and read it on the patent site. the application number is 20140154343.

    Avon did their work on TB 4 and they want it. But they cannot get the patent for using actual TB 4. So Avon has skirted around it by making their treatment creme made up with "botanical extracts" that "stimulate" production of TB 4. i sincerely doubt the efficacy, which can also be proven that Avon doesn't do any proof trials on it, they just go direct to over the counter….which tells you it's weak, if any, real efficacy..just another water based hype creme. Avon is chargiung $40 a jar. What if they had a fully synthetic turbocharged TB 4 in the creme….I bet it would work. But RGRX's hands are tied. They can't go for wrinkle creme, if they want eyes, heart or neuro. They can get expensive pricing in those areas, but no where near so in wrinkle. Unless they can get the TB 4 "fragments" going.

    In any case….Avon is very positive on TB 4 and RGRX owns it. Avon is doing more patent work to protect their angle.."botanical extracts".

  • Reply to

    $1.30 lean hogs and $4.50 corn.

    by netlosstoo Jun 27, 2014 7:08 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 27, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    The issue is that the prices you see aren't a long term one. Hog prices up because of the virus, and head loss. SEB yards apparently not so effected. But in a year, all gets back to normal….who knows what corn will do….but if hogs decline, so does our brief honeymoon with over the top margins. Which is why Bresky should grab the bull by the horn and consider taking an offer of 15 times EBIDTA for pork division. Remember that Tyson paid 16 times Hillshires EBITDA…but that is previous EBIDTA quarters..not forward. SEB's FORWARD ebidta numbers will be over the top………but million $$$$ question is….will Bresky see that the time to sell is now

    Wall Street will applaud a blowout Q in hogs (Q2) by SEB……..but Wall Street always looks forward…how long will that last. Things will revert to the mean, over time. In the last 10 years there is NO WAY Bresky could sell Pork division at 15 times EBIDTA……he has a window of opportunity, right now, with a disgruntled Pilgrims Pride……Tyson beat them. Pilgrims can fight back..but will they offer SEB? Will Bresky be willing to sell? The guy who that spent almost $4 million on the close for 1,259 shares…..thinks so. Monday will be interesting….as SEB can then be able to buy open market stock.

  • Wow, SEB took off in last 20 minutes. Volume was about 170 shares 3:35. In last 20 mins that volume went to 514 shares. Then in the last second a Market On Close (MOC) buy order came and cleaned out all stock offered. A total of 1,259 shares traded on that MOC……up from total volume 514 she a second earlier. So someone bought about $3,825,000 million of stock on the close bell…up about 120 points on the day (just over 4%)……It can't be SEB buying the stock. SEC rules said they can't buy open market stock until after the 27th (today). Come Monday SEB is free to buy again. So WHAT does this person who plunked down almost $4 million on the close…..know that we don't? That is a BIG gamble, in my mind..to place that bet to buy $4 million SEB up 120 points….just on the hope and prayer that SEB will buy shares again…. at the above $3,060 level. It also smells like someone wanted to take all shares around, TODAY..before SEB is able to compete with them to buy the same shares on Monday.

    Wish I had the dough to own an handful of hundred shares…..but I'm happy and bought yesterday below 2950..a handful.

  • snogreen by snogreen Jun 27, 2014 6:02 AM Flag

    Terms of the Dutch Tender said that SEB (Bresky) can't buy any stock back until after the 27th of June……I guess they have a couple weeks waiting period after a tender as a quiet period, So SEB will be able to buy shares in open marklet on Monday. Million dollar squestion is, 'Will they?". It looks like they took all the stock that was tendered to them at $2,950. Does that thus point to that if SEB is below $2,950 on Monday, they will be anxious to buy that stock? I don't know…..but I bought a few more shares on this downdraft when SEB is below 2950..I am hopeful that there is a 'Bresky Put"…..that there'll be a floor on downside where SEB just gets more aggressvive buying back. And for upside… I hope that Pilgrims Pride is out there looking at SEB assets. But if no one comes knocking to buy SEB pork assets…then SEB is fully valued around here…on an earnings (not asset) basis. Play here is Pilgrims Pride. Tyson's beat them on Hillshire. ifd Pilgrims wants to comepete with Tyson's…..SEB pork asset is attractive. Not many like it. I hope Bresky returns a call…….at 15 times EBITDA!

  • Reply to

    Whats goin' on ?

    by jtbcm Jun 24, 2014 1:49 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 26, 2014 6:27 AM Flag

    You know, I was thinking the SAME thing. Besides Pork, almost every other aspect of SEB would fit with PPC. Seaboard Container is unique and does a ton of business in caribbean and South America. SEB generates power in Dominicab Republic. SEB does food (hot peppers) in Central America….. we do grains and milling in Africa. SEB also owns 50% of Butterball, which woudl appeal to PPC.. The container division is the sleeper. You could not replace the acreage and port assets it has today. And some day, Castro(s) will be gone in Cuba and Cuba will have to change ways & politics and have to be totally rebuilt from the ground up..and much will come in by container…..only about 70 miles from the Miami hub port of SEB.

    I don't think Bresky woudl sell ALL SEB willingly…so only way if for PPC to make a "Bear Hug" announcement that they are willing to pay "X" per share for all of SEB. That woudl put some pressure oin SEB. They'd have to start at $4,000 a share….but I think Bresky would reject even $4,500 a share…or $4.95 billion for ALl of SEB. because if Tyson paid 16 times EBIDTA for Hillshire….if SEB pork does $275 million EBIDTA in 2014…16 times that $275 EBIDTA is $4.4 billion (of 4,000 a share). PPC cannot do a hostile tender, Bresky owns about 78% now. They have to make an offer for all he can't refuse, and even if he refuses, lawyers will still try to figure a wayt to sue Bresky if he refuses, say, a $4500 share bid. Quation is…will PPC look hard at SEB? If not, then SEB is fairly valued here on an earnings and PE basis.

  • Reply to

    warrants got dicier

    by snogreen Jun 25, 2014 6:03 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 25, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    There will be no heart trial..unless a partner takes it for that indication and does/pays for it themselves.

    The Koreans aren't going to do much either. They played RGRX to buy cheap stock and get drug rights….not to do trials in the USA (and they have no drug trial know how).

    Forget cosmetic TB 4 uses too. RGRX can't risk selling TB 4 synthetic cheaply in a $50 jar of anti wrinkle creme………….then see the same TB 4 get a winning trial in dry eye and try to charge 20-30 times what they charge in face creme…..to an eye drop. It can't work. No way would any insurance pay that for TB 4 in a dry eye drug treatment….if the see same TB 4 in a wrinkle creme 30 times cheaper. Only way out is TB 4 fragments……..but RGRX seems to have abandoned that too.

    The ONLY unknown and surprise that could come….is if Henry Ford starts some kind or neuro trial that they do and pay for , and RGRX only has to supply product. Henry Ford has had a team of people doing TB 4 work for many years now. Why don't they try it in a smallish test?

  • The warrants just got a bit dicier…..but also could offer a cheap play later. Reason is……Lee's said they won't start their dry eye till very early 2015. RGRX says similar. RGRX needs money. while RGRX has not said, I bet they filed for and FDA Orphan Grant $ for eye NK (which FDA granted Orphan Drug Status). You apply for grant early in year. If you win, you get the money in early November. So RGRX can't start any eye NK trial till early 2015.

    Which leaves the warrants. They are exerciseable at 0.55 till June 2015 (I recall)…but RGRX needs ALL to go exacty as planned and even ahead of schedule, to get results from a China dry eye and hoped for USA eye NK phs 2. I see nothing else out there now, that would be "market moving" for RGRX. So the warrants will probably trickle downwards, penny by penny…..until the MM's figure that the warrants are worthless with perhaps a couple months left till expiry in 2015. But that might juet be the time to throw in a 1 or 2 cent bid. Bid for 1,000,000 expiring warrants for 1 penny, is $10,000. You cen't get better "action" than that..if you believe that the China dry eye and USA phse 2 eye NK could possibly be done by June 2015. But I'm not sure I want to own warrants at 5 o 6 cents now…unless you think there is other big news coming to get us to 0.55. I don't see any, and Finkel Tinkel is just happy he is collecting shareholder welfare (salary) again.

  • Reply to

    Whats goin' on ?

    by jtbcm Jun 24, 2014 1:49 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 24, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Trading like a deal brewing. SEB corporate can't buy any shares until the 27th. So someone else is.

    If Bresky selsl the Pork division, SEB is still cheap at 3,100. Pork divison could do $300 million in EBITDA …..maybe more. Hillshire sold out at just under 16 times EBIDTA. The losing bidder, Pilgrims Pride, has to be looking for another target….because Tysons got Hillshire and they are budling far bigger competitive scale. If SEB agreed to sell it's pork divison for 15 times EBIDTA…..that would be at least $3 billion.and ALL of SEB is trading for a value of just over $3 billion now. If the Pork divison sells for about $3 billion (plus)….then the whole rest of SEB is FREE.

    If SEB does not sell it's pork division…..then on an earnings basis ….it's fairly valued here. I hold on for a buyout of Pork division.

  • Reply to

    CHINESE TRIAL TO START

    by bull1863 Jun 23, 2014 8:42 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 23, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    I don't mind if it takes 6 months to set up, as long as Finkel isn't involved in trial design or setup. Do it right. I also pray that Lee's is in touch with Ora Inc on trial design in terms of endpoints. There were several areas withing the cornea you can look at. Unfortunately, Ora & RGRX went with the one area for primary endpoint where pre clinical showed efficacy in animal study. They didn't get statistical there..but did get over the top statistical P values on two aother areas of the cornea. But since they were not designatd as areas for endpoints in the phase 2, they cannot be considered by the FDA..thus most investors believe the trial flopped.. let's just pray that Ora Inc is feeding them the imprtant human data they got where the statistcal results were a winner for TB 4.

    Can anyone find the actual trial listing and description? How many pts? Blinded? Dose levels? And most important.what are the primary and secondary endpoints……choss the same where Ora got good result??

  • Reply to

    new abstract,neuro/sinal

    by snogreen Jun 22, 2014 3:24 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 22, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    Yahoo cut part off. Why hasn't Henry Ford moved on doing a small Phs 2 neuro area? They've had about 6 people working with TB 4 for about 6-7 years now……and have written a bunch of abstracts on what they found in the early work. So that is a lot of salaries and reserarch monies and expenses they paid….for what? Unless they do something with it..…what good was it all? Nothing.

  • Thymosin β4 (Tβ4) has many physiological functions that are highly relevant to spinal cord injury (SCI), including neuronal survival, anti-inflammation, wound repair promotion, and angiogenesis. The present study investigated the therapeutic value of Tβ4 in SCI, with a focus on its neuroprotective, anti-inflammatory, and vasculoprotective properties. Tβ4 or a saline control was administered by intraperitoneal injection 30 min, 3 days, or 5 days after SCI with mild compression in rat. Locomotor recovery was tested with the Basso-Beattie-Bresnahan scale and a footprint analysis. All behavioral assessments were markedly improved with Tβ4 treatment. Histological examination at 7 days post injury showed that the numbers of surviving neurons and oligodendrocytes were significantly increased in Tβ4-treated animals compared to saline-treated controls. Levels of myelin basic protein, a marker of mature oligodendrocytes, in Tβ4-treated rats were 57.8% greater than those in saline-treated controls. The expression of ED1, a marker of activated microglia/macrophages, was reduced by 36.9% in the Tβ4-treated group compared to that of the saline-treated group. Tβ4 treatment after SCI was also associated with a significant decrease in pro-inflammatory cytokine gene expression and a significant increase in the mRNA levels of IL-10 compared to the control. Moreover, the size of lesion cavity delineated by astrocyte scar in the injured spinal cord was markedly reduced in Tβ4-treated animals compared to saline-treated controls. Given the known safety of Tβ4 in clinical trials and its beneficial effects on SCI recovery, the results of this study suggested that Tβ4 is a good candidate for SCI treatment in humans.

  • snogreen snogreen Jun 19, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Thanks for sharing the abstract, bull.

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