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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 176 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Trial Delay

    by sdhoolteach2000 Aug 18, 2014 10:51 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 18, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    I don't recall that any trial was "delayed". Lee's just took too long thinking about it. Lee's also had tio file with Chinese Gov't and I coudl see the Gov't taking a long time to review……there is a lot of corruption.Perhaps Lee's did not "pay"…so they were put on a one year review for a new trial befpre okay. A payment may have speeded it up. I don't see a real delay in Korea. They have n oidea what they are doing…..they've never touch bio stuff. So they fly blind as to the whole process. Korea is also kind of corrupt and need Gov't approvals.

    As to "delay" in US eye NK trial? Finkel-Tinkel has NOT been honest on that. After he got Orphand Status for eye NK, the next logical step is to apply for ORPHAN GRANT. deadline was mid Feb……..decison by Oct…and first money in mid Nov. If Finkel-DOPE was HONEST with shareholders he would have stated that RGRX badly needs the FDA Orphan GRANT money to do eye NK trial. But since Finkel-Dope was NOt honest with you..you think that the eye NK trial is DELAYED for some other reason. not so. My bet is RGRX needs the Orphan grant and RGRX is asking FDA to go direct to a small phase 3 for eye NK. The PROCES of getting FDA Orphan Grant money takes almost 10 months. So if Finkel Tinkel had been honest with you, you woudl see it not as a delay, but the 10 month process..to get free money.

  • snogreen by snogreen Aug 18, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    JBSAY shares trade more on soilid EBIDTA than net earnings…..because it is the EBIDTA number that pays the debt,,, and that will take a few years to pay down. but maybe less. JBS has said they want to do a IPO of JBS Foods of Brazil..and raise maybe $1 billion cash. That will go towards debt reduction. But both JBSAY and PPC are at or near highs on price. So I think the JBS and PPC are looking at the next deal, but to soothe bondholders and banks they will issue some equity….stock…in conjunction. I still say that SEB is the target. Possibly ALL of SEB…..which JBS would take the rest not including the pork and butterball, which JBS coudl take themselves. if not that, then just the Pork and Butterball to PPC.

  • Reply to

    OB is very strong

    by snogreen Aug 15, 2014 3:43 PM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 17, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    I disagree that OB is too small for Buffet. You're right that Buffet probably wouldn't get OB as a single entity………but it could make sense that Buffet takes all of WTM and get's 75% stake in OB along the way. if you state that OB is too small for Buffet to own, then why does Buffet own 17 million shares of SYA?? humm? You also will notice that WTM also ownes 17 million shares of SYA. A buyout of WTM woudl give Buffet 34 million combined shares of SYA…….just under 40%?? And give him 76% control of OB……OB has some interesting new products that could expand VERY VERY fast, if they have the capital. - WHICH BUFFET DOES. I think OB's new Crop Insrance division would be attractive to Buffet. A huge market. His capital and his name……..it would grow extremely fast. Same goes for the Municipal Bond insurance investment WTM has thru BAM. That would also be very interesting to Buffet. WTM has a good reinsurance company, Sirius….WTM has numerous insurance related venture capital investments…WTM owns a $36 billion money manager…….White Mountain Advisors.

    I think ALL of WTM would be of interest to Buffet…it is the SMALL pieces that WTM owns that would look good to him - combined…..and small pieces… from to BIG pieces. Buffet is VERY WELL AWARE that WTM took the GEICO competitor "Essurance" from nothing..to selling it to Allstate for $1 BILLION. Esurance competes directly with GEICO. So Buffet will not poo-poo ANY venture investments by WTM in the insurance area. WTM did very well. I think it is a BIG mistake to poo poo ANY investment idea for Buffet… if it is "too small". Again, WHY would Buffet own 17 million shares of SYA? Your thesis falls apart. Buffet SYA stake is worth a tiny $383 million. But you insist that is "too small" for Buffet? Then why does Buffet own SYA?

  • snogreen by snogreen Aug 15, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    OB is acting very strong. Not sure what's up. Float is somewhat tight because WTM owns 75% and others hold OB fiorm because of the 5.4% dividend. Todays action, up, themn a whack fdown on Russia & Ukraine news.tanking overall market…..but teh buyer took in all in on way down then ran it right back up. Someone wants OB. Don't know if it is Buffet's style..but maybe. This new crop insurance division OB started is doing very well……..Buffet might like that area.

  • snogreen by snogreen Aug 15, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    10-Q out. Few tidbits. Q2 20914 they spent $149,000 on R&D. That compares to $62,000 in Q2 2013. Wonder what the 149k was on?

    They also said they are mwwting with FDA by end of 3rd Q to ask them to okay a phase 3 for eye NK trial. Interesting. BEing an orphan drug, it won't have to be a huge phs 3, but enough to satisfy FDA. RGRX made NO MENTION if they applied for an FDA Orphan Research Grant for the eye NK trial. That woudl be good for about $1.5 million over 3 years. First grants given in Nov, second in early 2015. So RGRX if they applied and get it…coudl get $800,000 pretty quickly. but as usual, RGRX is silent.

    Also, RGRX said very little about Henry Ford or neuro. they said they may work with a major institution, if they have the money. but all RGRX has to do is supply TB4. RGRX is also hiding heh recent very good abstract from Henry ford where HF stated they have a dose targted for human trials. RGRX does NOT mention this or Henry Ford. Typical.

  • Reply to

    60k shares traded today at .15

    by thebasiles777 Aug 13, 2014 10:27 PM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 14, 2014 5:51 AM Flag

    I think those shares that Koreans have right to buy at 15 cents would be newly issued shares directly from RGRX, not open market buys. Koreans are probably allowed to buy open market stock if they wish. Also, no reason for Koreans to think of exercising such a buy…yet. I'd wait till January 28 to decide if I wish to exercise an option right to buy 5.5 mill shares at .15.

    I think it is very possible we will be above 0.15 come January…because hopefully RGRX will have started three eye trials. Hopefully RGRX will have received about $800,000 in an FDA Orphan Grant for an eye NK trial…..and hopefully, maybe…. Henry Ford comes out of the blue and says they are filing to do a small TB 4 trial in stroke Finkel Dope is very quiet on that…..I think both he, and henry ford, are waiting to make such announcent until the boondoggle Thymosin confab in Italy later this Fall.

  • See? It wasn't really a long seller puker today. Of all about 195k total volume, 113,600 shares was done as an opening SHORT position. Wasn't really tax loss sell this time, nor was it any insiders like Cavazzas selling…there was someone who bought….and the MM was very willing to short to them about 55% of all the volume today.

  • Reply to

    Large Block Owners

    by fl_geezer Aug 13, 2014 3:14 PM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 13, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    I do not believe the Cavazzas are selling any shars of RGRX. They own about 34% of RGRX. They have three business days to file with the SEC if they buy or sell any shares. That is the law. I do NOT think the Cavazzas would sell any shares and risk the ire of the SEC or US Gov't. Sigma Tau is a $1 biillion revenue company……and Sigma Tau has a VERY large US operation in Maryland..no way woudl they jeopardize the US operations by cheating the SEC on reportings some sales of a penny stock RGRX. Furthermore, RGRX would have to report shareholder stakes and it could get RGRX in trouble if they know a large reporting owner is selling and hiding it from the SEC.

  • Reply to

    Nice Tick

    by bocamp1 Aug 13, 2014 10:06 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 13, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    We do not know if someone "dumped" 100,000 shares at 13 cents and change. How do you know it was not a SHORT, opening a position there? You don't….but we'll know later on today when FINRA reports. Not all large volume is automatically a long sell puke. But a lot of the early down draft to this area was a long seller.

  • Reply to

    SFD also reported huge profits

    by netlosstoo Aug 12, 2014 2:21 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 12, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    I think that and JBS are seeing the numbers for Smithfield? Which is a better long term buy? I think PPC and JBS may think they were lucky not to get SFD. And they certainly know they weer smart not to pay $6.7 billion for Hillshire. Question is? WHO is left of the size, scale and distribution that would create huge efficiences in sales & marketing and manufacturing..for PPC? Only one answer. SEB's pork division and also their stake in Butterball. PPC overnight would become a leader (and really compete with TSN) in THREE..pork, chicken and turkey. I think that's just where PPC would like to be. They went to bat twice, for Smithfield and Hillshire. There is only one player left. SEB. That is my bet. if nothing happens in 4 months, I am wrong, but SEB's downside is nothing, compared to the possible upside. Bresky buys $53 million of SEB at $2,950. You don't think they'd buy more at $2,800? Downside risk is small. Just dream of 15 times EBIDTA and do the math. I see $100 to $150 downside, and up to $1,500 upside. Depends. But a 10-1 risk ratio.

  • Reply to

    paying down all LT debt, feds 2012 raid

    by snogreen Aug 11, 2014 7:05 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 12, 2014 6:23 AM Flag

    Read these quotes from Smithfield release yesterday. Smithfield is signaling continued strength for quite a while. Earnings up 341%. I expect JBSAY to also surpass estimates:

    "Net income +341% to second quarter record high of $142.9 million.

    Market fundamentals continue to be supportive of our business on a number of fronts. Domestic protein demand is impressive. Although Russia has banned US pork imports, international demand from other countries remains strong. This, combined with lower domestic protein production, should support high hog and pork prices for the duration of 2014 and beyond. Notwithstanding a bullish hog production outlook, PEDv concerns seem to have thwarted market expansion for now. In addition, corn is currently trading at the lowest level in three years. This should translate into normalized fresh pork margins and high, above normalized hog production margins in 2014," said Mr. Pope.

  • Reply to

    paying down all LT debt, feds 2012 raid

    by snogreen Aug 11, 2014 7:05 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 12, 2014 5:56 AM Flag

    I've been buying JBSAY when it ticks down a tad. All already know of it's extreme leverage. But JBS stated in June they plan an IPO in Brazil of subsidiary JBS foods which could raise $1 billion cash. That is deleveraging. Second point is that Smithfield reported earnings. They absolutely exploded for Smithfield. I expect they will also explode for JBSAY, because of the JBS America meat division. The third thing about the coming quarter (release on Aug 14)…..is that the WORLD CUP SOCCER was in Brazil - for almmost a MONTH. It was party time all over the world, and in particular party time in Brazil. What do people do? Cook and party or go out to bars & restaurants. Toursist flocked top Brazil. There has to be a big bump in JBS Brazil. I think earnigs soar at JBSAY…and they wiat till stock goes higher for IPO. combine that cash with possible $1 billion IPO soon, some debt buy down is near. Also, as JBSAY stock rises, I woudl expect that BOTH JBSAY and PPC will use shares as well as cash, in their next deal…which I expect to be SEB. The pork and 50% of Butterball is a no brainer for PPC……but what I wonder is if they might actually buy ALL of SEB in one fell swoop tender. PPC takes pork and turkey. JBS takes the container transport at ion, jalapeño ops and the huge sugar plantation. The Dominican power can be taken and sold later. The one sticker area if the African milling and grain businesses….they don't ever seem to do well, but people have to eat. JBSAY could issue stock for these SEB ops. JBS could offer stock and cash for butterball and pork. even with some dilution, I think PPC rise after becauise of 2 unique assets for PPC. IF JBS and PPC take ALL of SEB, it makes sense for SEB to pay down ALL debt now. Just have all cash, no debt. Easier to get bank financing that way.

  • I spotted in the proxy that McNAy controls 5.72 million shares……that is well more than double what Finkel Tinkel controls and almost double what Goldstein owns.

    What the F has mcNay been doing here..being a Board member since the late 1980's. he had to have thought that he had been suckered somewhere along the line…..but McNAy stays on and even put MORE of his own money into it…but he is very well off I'm sure..so he doesn't have to worry about money After him being on the Board for about 26 YEARS….he, like us..wants to see how the story ends. All or none.

  • I'm not hyping there will be a deal for all WTM.I have no idea, but it rallied about $30 on something. If there ever was a deal for WTM, a buyer would pobably buy some shares before. But they would also probably be very smart and buy shares in One Beacon as well. WTM owns 75.3% of OB…and if ever someone wanted to buy all of WTM, it woudl make sense that they buy as much OB as they can ahead of time…to get their stake up as high as they can before a deal. OB came out with so-so earnings.but it is still a good company. On releasing the earnigs OB went down to $14.70. Merrill Lynch did their usual quarterly "put down" of OB..happens every quarter. So Merrill talked it down and poo-poos OB……but since Merrill did that……OB has rallied from $14.70 to now about $15.70. OB is kind of thin trading because WTM owns 75%. But if OB keeps going higher, in such a short time frame…..then that is a good clue that something could be up with WTM.

  • Reply to

    raybo

    by hugh.jarss Aug 10, 2014 11:52 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 11, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    doesn't matter. RAy B will be wealthy. His stock will zoom. He will get fabulous severance and benefits. He will come out smelling like a rose. But the one thing he WILL lose are all those free hours of use of the company jet for personal travel. Buffet would shut that expenive perk down immediately. Prospector Partners managing hundreds of millions of WTM money would be fired. In FIVE years he has yet to match the S&P….even CLOSE.

    Question is…would Buffet be interested in all of WTM..and thus their stakes in OB and SYA..Buffet already owns 20% of SYA as does WTM. But Buffet has shown no interest in buying any more insurance companies in quite a while. So what would change his mind in WTM? It certainly wouildn't be because of any fabulous job of managing WTM's money. Manning Rountree hasn't matchd the S&P 500 returns for three years either. I'd fire him and Prospector Partners. Right off.

  • Reply to

    paying down all LT debt, feds 2012 raid

    by snogreen Aug 11, 2014 7:05 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 11, 2014 7:15 AM Flag

    FYI, SEB notified the holders of $85 million bonds (due 2021) in july………and SEB set a date of August 29 to do so..SEB was in a decisive and quick mood. Two weeks from now SEB will have no long term debt….almost all cash, While SEB will be using about $85 million off cash to do it (plus they have to pay a $3 million penalty)…….that cash will almost all be replaced soon……because SEB is taking delivery of three large mewl cargo ships. SEB is paying cash to build them. They are being delivered to SEB in "the second half of 2014"……SEB has already paid for them…so in 10_q SEB said that when they get delivered SEB has set up that they will immediately SELL the $60 million of new ships, get their money back…and LEASE them back from the entity they sell them to.

  • 10-Q if fun read for SEB. In July SEB decided they woudl retire all their long term debt..about $85 million. The do it for a reason, I don't know why for sure…but I can guess. SEN has close to $400 million cash paying interest on the $85 million debt (maturing 2021) is no big deal. Also, interest expense is a deductible item on taxes, a good thing. SO why pay off early? because to rush to p;ay off the LT debt, SEB is going to pay a panalty to do so! SEB is in such a rush that they will pay a just over $3 million penalty to bondholders to buy back all the debt from them. Why is paying $3 million worth that? I have a guess why!.

    I also saw another good tidbit that would help oin a pork sale. SEB's OK plant was raided by the U.S. Attorney's office a couple years ago. A real mess of taking all kinds of records. Pretty scary stuff.. But SEB buried it in the 10-Q that a month or so ago the U.S. Attorney contacted them and told SEB that no charges are being brought on SEB…..basically they are free to go. Clean slate. This coudl be an issue to PPC if they wanted to buy the SEB pork division. They don't want to buy intyo a possible huge lawsuit by the US Attorney's office. BAd publicity, expensive and potentially very harmful fines. But that is all gone now.

    I just have bought some of PPC's parent company stik, JBSAY. If you have a 3-5 year time horizon, it's a pretty good buy now.

  • Reply to

    B7 look at the level two an HOUR before......

    by donker3 Aug 9, 2014 9:01 AM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 9, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    lie:

    Now Sno recommends selling RGRX in July for tax loss and a 'dead zone' until somewhere in 2015.

    I never said to sell for tax loss. I said it is probably why we had teh large seller take it down to this level. The short sales reported to FINRA weren't that big. Markets were good for past coupel years. RGRX is a loos. got gains? You need to sell losers to offset. whichis probably what happened.

  • I also heard Buffet rumors again. Not sure I believe it. But there is one good clue. Anyone who woudl buyout WTM woudl be getting about a 72% stake in One Beacon (OB). It woudl make sense that if someone is looking to buyout WTM, they woudl buy as many shares of OB as they cane, before a deal…to increase their % stake as much a possible…just in case they wish to take 100% of OB at a later date. What I see is that WTM and OB are trading up strongly, in tender. OB hist $14.65 after a soft earnings quarter…but came right back up to $15.63..a good move. It happens often. On every quarter Merrill lynch talks down OB and it goes down. I buy when merrill talks down OB. Works well. I got some at 14.75. but I sold 1/2 my WTNM at 423…doesn't look so good now……..but who knows if Buffet is playing. but the clue is to watch OBB.

  • Reply to

    Berkshire buys WTM

    by analyst112 Aug 4, 2014 3:45 PM
    snogreen snogreen Aug 7, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    OB is not at 40% premiun to book. It is at 1.3 times book now, mostly because of a 5.4% dividend.. Their specialty segments are growing. OB will by end of year release about 200 million of reserves. they will do somethoingh with it. I like OB. It will grow and the dividend is noise, though I woudl rather they buy back stock. The muni bond biz that WTM did is blah. WTM does NOT OWN THE MUNI INSURER. They cannot claim a PENNY of profit. WTM just put up the reserve capital. Unfortunately that 600 million was getting a high rate of interest. WTM just LOWERED what BAM pays in interst to about 3%. BAM is owned as a mutual company by the entities that insure their bonds. Still, I hold some WTM. But I wisjh mgmt woudl buy back stock. I don't think Buffet is interested. He has not bought any insurance company outright or any insurance stocks..lately.

OB
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