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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 337 posts  |  Last Activity: 27 minutes ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    G Tree, $360 million mkt cap?

    by snogreen May 11, 2016 7:00 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 11, 2016 9:16 AM Flag

    This issue still is? The WIDE disparity in market valuations for the SAME drug, same countries!!!! RGRX owns more countries than G Tree, and RGRX owns between a 25% and 40% slice of USA and Canada. So why will NVS combime for for G Tree assets, which already are valued at $360 million..while the whole cow of RGRX, eyes, heart, neuro and all other countris is at $55 million valuation? I just can't see NVS playing G Tree at $360 million valuation. I CAN envison NVS playing RGRX at $55 million valuation.

    The other unknown is this.......RGRX did glaucoma occular pressure measures on 306 live human patients. For all intents, G Tree and RGRX did a PHASE 2 trial of TB 4 in GLAUCOMA. What we don't know is if there was any adjustments in ocular pressures to the TB 4 arm in trial. If there was, and it basically was almost phase 2 test......NVS is a big player in glaucoma. That possible phase 2 type of "read" could alone be worth $100 million to NVS. A leading cause of blindness worldwide?

    And WHOM do you think it silent on this? And who was it that made all aware that there WAS a glaucoma test in the dry eye trial. HINT! Not finkel boob.....and not Rodman. I don't think rodman analyst has a clue the glaucoma measures were tried. Thank you, sno.

  • Reply to

    G Tree, $360 million mkt cap?

    by snogreen May 11, 2016 7:00 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 11, 2016 8:28 AM Flag

    Do the math, bo....if indeed G Tree is at $360 million market cap....and for basically US rights .....and RGRX owns between 25% and 40% of US revenues......I doubt the market cap G Tree has now, at this stage of the game (no final trial or FDA approval) are worth $360 million, to NVS because G Tree owners will want a PREMIUM over that already $360 million. Otherwise G Tree faces a "take under".

    Should NVS have any interest in TB 4 (who knows), the numbers can't be argued. RGRX at a $55 million total value..the whole cow..or deal with G Tree owning USA, with RGRX taking a 25% to 40% cut of USA after that? Clearly, the whole cow of RGRX is far more financially attractive, to any potential buyer of the TB 4 "cow". I just hope that NVS has some gambling money allocated, from their soon, after Roche stock sale $13.8 where NVS will sit on just about $20 billiion.and in dire need of eye drugs for Alcon.......then RGRX may fit the long as NVS would give us a CVR. Then all shareholders of RGRX now, still get the "play", and competants at NVS will bring us across the "finish line". Finkle can't.

  • G Tree down a bit. Not unusual, considering. But an I getting it right? reuters says market cap of G Tree is 420 billion Won............conversion to USD is even with G Tree down a bit today.....G Tree has a market cap of $360 million USD? Is that right? Post if it is right...because WHY woudl Novartios be intererested in dal with G Tree, because G Tre is already at $360 milliom market cap......but RGRX which owns the WHOLE COW of TB worth a total market cap $55 million. G Tree is valued almost 700% higher than RGRX????

    if NVS ever is interested in TB 4, it won't be thru G Tree......the play for them is RGRX- at $55 million market cap. I hope Finkel answers the phone when they call. I'd leap at a deal with NVS.and sell out RGRX long as NVS gives a royalty based CVR (contingent value right)...and that will trade lkek a warrant, and receive proceeds from any TB 4 future revenues.

  • Reply to

    Rodman buy rating update

    by ardentmarr May 10, 2016 11:38 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 11, 2016 6:17 AM Flag

    JJ fate of our hands, not as much now? he sure is! We are basically out of money. RGRX has enough for maybe three months. They need top pay finical (ugh0, goldie, rent, accountants, it about $110,000 a month.. So we all know that a "money raise" must come and come soon.. What we DON'T KNOW of Finkel (I know too much already) will he go miniums or higher? will he go for $3 million max.......or go for $4 to $6 million? Will he do so in a NON diluting way, like doing a JV again with G Tree for heart neuro? Or will Finkel sell, like 10 million NEW diluting shares at around 40 cents? And even worse when he sells stock like that they ALWAYS get a TON of warrants too. All these warrants and FREE options have REALLY started to AD UP! bull1863 said about 20% of RGRX is in DILUTING warrants or options now, above the 100 mill outstanding. we don't need more.

    If G Tree is interested, I guess I'd go a the JV way with heart & neuro, with similar terms.....with G Tree.. but they have to pay $3 million upfront. teh phase 2b/3 showed TB 4 work. It dd not fail. We have all heart & neuro patents, TB 4 100% safe and side effect free (tat is VERY IMPORTANt in heart and neuro area), ALL preclinocal work is done, Phase 1'a are satisfied.....move DIRECT to Phase 2 ready drug..heart and neuro are about a $6 billion least TRIPLE what dry eye is. SO YEAH, they shoudl pay $3 millionupfromnt for it. That will tide RGRX over for about 20 to 25 months, enough time.and no dilution.

    I'be be ALL FOR a NVS deal. But I can't see it. G Tree is a $2500$300 million market cap.. Why woudl NVS pay a premium on top that, when the WHOLE COW of TB 4 applications is at $55 million? if NVS moves on TB 4, they move on RGRX, not G Tree. Then NVS woudl offer to take over US trials and let G tree keep sone % rights, but NVS has to buy some US percentages from Gtree. Maybe leave G Tree 20-25%.

  • Reply to

    Rodman buy rating update

    by ardentmarr May 10, 2016 11:38 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 10, 2016 9:25 PM Flag

    ivchip...yes, compared to almpst all other bios the burn rate is minimal. But expenses come. Perhaps $100k a month....depending. RGRX was down to below $50k CASH on hand I bet ny end of April. G Tree did a lifeline of $250k for Canada rights eyes ASAP for RGRX. That will last 3 months or less. It will be a good long wait till final dry eye.. and also wait for Eye NK results. RGRX will need about $3 million in bank, very soon. Shares did not respond but went down..we could be looking at 6-8 million shares dilution.......if we can find buyers. BUT! My earlier post showed a way to raise a handful of millions with the heart & neuro rights, which my hunch is G Tree might take....NO dilution or stock sale.

    if we had ANY OTHER CEO who could COMMUNICATE and get the STORY out better, money woudl be not as much an issue.....but when you are 50 cents...problem. It is PITIFUL to see ALL KINDS of PRE CLINICAL tiny spec biotechs..... with FAR larger valuations that RGRX......millions of $$ in the bank.....and they are YEARS away from ANY late stage trial. We got stuck with Finkelstein........TWENTY YEARS and counting, and we're broke and have a total operating carry forward deficit spent as of Dec 31 .....$105,000,000.00

    and Finkel needs more. We have no choice.

    Bo and B7 are still in love......I am not. Never have been.

  • 68,000 traded, 30,000 short traded. God, they never give up.....even with the Rodman release, we were DOWN almost all day. Only a trickle uptick mark, last minute, trade put us positve.

    It goes to PROVE......"What we have here is a failure to communicate". It astounds me..Last Fall 2015.....Shire comes out with Liftegrast Phase 3 results....Shire added in market value. And yet, Shire never released FULL trial data...and they massaged what data they released..and the two phase 3's done..... were at ODDS with each others results! And Shire GOT RID OF Ora's TORTURE CHMBER CAE, and WINS! JUST LIKE TB 4 will! In a lot of areas, TB 4 results equalled or beat Liftegrast..

    Even with the upbeat note by Rodman....RGRX was DOWN most of the day. Good results?.... Shire goes UP $3 billion in value..... Good results (did NOT fail!!!) TB 4?????,,,, we go DOWN a penny, or $1 million in market value...until the person here marked us up on small trade last few seconds.

    I don't know what, or who, or how....but RGRX is so cursed. Just have to live with it the the end.

  • Reply to

    Rodman Reiterates Buy

    by bocamp1 May 10, 2016 10:45 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 10, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    It is also possible that G Tree woudl take heart and neuro for a few million.....G Tree investors did not panic on eye results. TB 4 showed efficacy. G Tree has said they want to build a biopharma. to do that you need DRUG candidates and areas. Gtree just partnered in USA a GLIOBLASTOMA drug. A glioblastoma is NEURO area.....and who coudl G Tree USE for ADVICE IN neuro area? dr. Michael Choop of henry ford. he knows it and TB 4.

    Secondly? Now that the eye trial did not is ALSO in G Trees interest that RGRX have funds to just tide them over. Because G Tree OWNS 19,000,000 shares of RGRX. It is NOt in G Trees interest to see 19 million shares get significantkly DILUTEd either! So? One way out? Build a pipeline at G Tree. JV the heart and neuro.....prevent big dilution, protect your 19 million shares and by getting heart and neuro TB 4 you automatically get Dr. MICHAEL CHOPP at Henry of the best! And Dr. chopp can help G Tree with the GLIOBLASTOMA drug they just licensed! It is a win win all ariound.

  • Reply to

    Rodman Reiterates Buy

    by bocamp1 May 10, 2016 10:45 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 10, 2016 3:51 PM Flag

    this could be done, totally non diluting. Heart and neuro have ALL US patents issued. All pre clinical work has been done. Phase 1 trials are satisfied. RGRX has stated both heart and neuro are 'Phase 2 ready".... Drugs ready for phase 2 have value. Takes a lot of money to get that far. A big bonus is that TB 4 is 100% safe and side effect free. Side effects and risk kill a lot of drugs. RGRX could get a handful of million perhaps, to tide them over:
    "However, we intend to continue to develop RGN-352, either by obtaining grants to fund a Phase 2a clinical trial in the cardiovascular or central nervous system fields or finding a suitable partner with the resources and capabilities to develop it as we have with RGN-259........ we intend to continue to pursue additional partnering activities, particularly for RGN-352, our injectable systemic product candidate for cardiac and central nervous system indications."
    Dr. Michael Chopp of Henry Ford Hospital is highly regarded in the neuro, stroke and MS area. he has been doing pre clinical tests with TB 4 for about 7 years now. Each time he came up with good results. I heard that a holdback at the FDA, to give a trial green light, was that another set of tests were needed to try and identify the MOA . (method of action)...if you go back to the last PR of TB 4 by Dr. Chopp, it appearsd that is what he reported on. Another holdup on this area had to be Dry eye trial results. Efficacy needed to be seen, and there was. It did not fail by any means. Inflammation is a problem in dry eye. TB 4 adressed it. Inflammation is a big issue in heart and neuro. You are looking at $6 BILLIOn markets there. TB 4 did not fail in eyes. Inflammation is in eyes, heart and neuro. A 100% safe and side effect free drug, for a $6 BILLION market.....which just showed efficacy in eyes? So what is a handful of million bucks, for a PHASE 2 READY drug? It is a crumb, even smaller than a crumb. I bet dr. Chopp could find a taker.

  • Reply to

    Rodman buy rating update

    by ardentmarr May 10, 2016 11:38 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 10, 2016 2:12 PM Flag

    someone ought to email the Rodman analyst and have him also add in .Why the Glaucoma measures...if the analysts want UPSIDES, that he has not factored in...HELL, I don't think he even KNOWS that measure was in the trial.....ANY slight drop in intraocular pressure on the TB 4 arm, makes TB 4 immediately worth more. Glaucoma is a BIGGER market than dry eye!!!!! It is about $2.5 billion RIGHT NOW. Glaucoma is a leading cause of blindness - WORLD WIDE!, and new therapies are very badly needed. Because of that, I think you woudl find a more sympathetic FDA, in terms of onerous things they usually demand.....anything SAFE.... that aids glaucoma woudl be welcomed by doctors and patients. Eyesight is irreplaceable. Dry eye is manageable. And I woudl bet that the price of a glaucoma drug woudl be a lot more than a dry eye drug.

    Glaucoma is a long shot for TB 4, no doubt. But this analyst has no idea the Glaucoma work was EVEN DONE IN TWO TB 4 TRIALS! Longshot ????.yes.but who knows. Inflammation and pressure - go together. if TB 4 in THIS trial reduces inflammation.....pressures could be as well. TB 4 would be worth MORE $$$ as a Glaucoma drug, than it would be a Dry Eye drug! And NO ONE knows this, but this board...and Finkel tinkle..and G Tree...OH, and if G Tree has input from Novartis...THEY WILL WANT TO KNOW, as they are big players in Glaucoma, and NVS will soon be sitting on almpst $20 billion of cash..looking for drugs to BUY!

  • Reply to

    wonder of Glaucoma presure measures?

    by snogreen May 10, 2016 12:46 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 10, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    hey bocamp....I am warming up to your thesis on NVS. But I don't think it will happen via taking of teh JV. NVS woudl go for teh whole cow, not a leg. The cow is ALL of RGRX. RGRX still has a significant % of USA & Canada rights. but RGRX owns all Mexico, Central America, South America, Africa, all of Europe and a few other sundry countries.for EYES. RGRX owns ALl of teh heart & neuro rights..and RGRX has already gotten all needed USA patents on them.

    These GLAUCOMA measures were put on purpose, by design, in a very stealthy way.and a lot of thinking went into it.just look at how they CONTINUED the measure of pressure starting at DAY 29 in the EYE NK puts! The dru eye ones went days 1-29. Eye NK takes over for days 29-43.

    Now, Finkel and G Tree know FULL WELL why they put those mesusues in place. All you need to do is see ANY kind of slight drop in pressure with the TB 4 arm..they won't have high elevateds to start......but ANy small drop will make measurable statistical significance against placebo water drops. SO??? It all depends WHEN Finkel has the pressure data. G Tree woudl not "deal" the JV until they know what the glaicoma look see did. And maybe they want to wait until EYE NK is finished anyways. Don't sell JV now. what if teh EYE NK is a 100% winner, and get's a 6 month approval marketing review? Or? what if Day 1-29 on pressure measure showed a little..but days 29-43 showed a bigger pressure won't know that till eye NK done. If NVS takes ALL of RGRX or JV, we need that EYE NK Phase 3 done. And any reduction in pressure measured, coudl be HUGe for glaucoma. we just don't know yet. RGRX "cloaks" this endpoint. Rodman has no idea of it.

  • Non commumicative. he has answers by now. On dry eye trial on Day 1 and Day 29, Ora did an 'intraocukar pressure' measurement. This has nothing to do with dry eye, but everything to do with glaucoma.. I've not seen any other dry eye trial measure this. There's only one reason they should..glaucoma. Obviously the dry eye patienst don't have glaucoma, so their intraocular pressure isn't sky high. but we don't need to see that. All we need is that perhaps with the TB 4 arm there was any SLIGHT decrease in ocular pressure....then there woudl be no reason for a water placebo to show that. So even just the slightest reduction of a normal intraocular pressure, might point to that a patient will elevated pressure woudl respond as well.

    Now, it's interesting to note that the EYE NK Orphan Phase 3 also included in trial design the SAME measures! Have a look!

    "Intraocular Pressure at 29, 43 days after first dosing [ Time Frame: 29, 43 days after first dosing ] [ Designated as safety issue: Yes ]"

    DO YOU SEE THIS? IT IS ON PURPOSE TIED DIRECTLY INTO THE DRY EYE pressure measures! The dry eye trial sets a baseline measure on Day 1. Then on Day 29 (trial end) They measure intraocular pressure............end of trial. BUT THE EYE NK TRIAL then STARTS to measure pressure ON DAY 29! They have already been dosed TB 4 day 1-29 (that data in hand from dey eye).. So for the data collection continuation....they take intraocular pressure measure at day 29 and see what happens on Day 43. Then you combine the info of the two trials. It is GOOD NEWS that the EYE NK Phase 3 is a longer 43 day dose.. Novartis is big into glaucoma. $2.5 BILLION market, leasing cause of blindness! ANY hint of a drop in pressure will get NVS very excited. THIS ENDPOINT IS CLOAKED by RGRX and Rodman does not see it!

  • Reply to

    read this of LIFTEGRAST!

    by snogreen May 10, 2016 10:59 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 10, 2016 11:28 AM Flag

    Insane. when Shire announced their phase 3 results, in Fall 2015..they "massaged" the stuff so well....all the negatives were just put behind a curtain. So the market added $3 BILLION on market cap UP on that news...$3 BILLION And yet, in many instancs the TB 4 results, when broken down factually, beat Liftegrast! And we can't seem to add even a measly $500,000 in market value. We may even go DOWN on the good news.

    And what I have stated all along!!! Shire KNEW that the DEATH KNELl for them was doing the final trial using the Ora CAE TORTURE CHAMBER. So the simple solution? GET RID OF IT. So HOW COME people do NOT see that RGRX HAS THE DATA OF TB 4 NOT IN THE CAE TORTURE CHAMBER, UP TO DAY 28! It was a very clear winner. So they give SHIRE a pass and champagne? But trash RGRX?

    "What we have here is a FAILURE to communicate".

  • Reply to

    Rodman Reiterates Buy

    by bocamp1 May 10, 2016 10:45 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 10, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    can we googlel to a link of report? READ that LIFTEGRAST post I just did. Makes me furious. LFTEGRAST failed when they used tha CAE TORTURE CHAMBER. SO? They simply refused to use it for their final aproval trial. PRESTO BINGO? A winner...just like TB will be.

    Di you read snippet where Shire REFUSED to disclose all data??

  • Wanna get mad? Read these snippets Liftegrast. ONLY way they passed second Phase 3 was NATURAL SETTINGS! NO CAE TORTURE CHAMBER:

    Lifitegrast, an experimental new ophthalmic solution, relieved dry eye symptoms but did not improve signs of the condition in a newly reported phase 3 trial. The results are nearly the opposite of an earlier, just-published phase 3 trial of the drug………Shire, the patent holder for lifitegrast, announced in a press release on December 5 that the drug had successfully treated dry eye symptoms reported by patients but not signs measured by corneal and conjunctival staining in a large, randomized clinical trial under natural conditions………in the Ocular Surface Disease Index Score, where patients report their symptoms during the previous week, the researchers found no statistically significant improvements at follow-up in either group. The patients had very low scores on this index at baseline, making it difficult to measure improvements, Dr. Sheppard said…….Fifty-nine percent of the lifitegrast group experienced adverse events compared with 25% of the placebo group. The ocular event the lifitegrast patients reported most commonly were intermittent and transient discomfort, primarily on the initial instilled dose at day 0. A 1-year study on the safety of the drug is now underway…….In the second large trial, OPUS-2, researchers divided 718 patients into similar groups, one receiving lifitegrast and the other the placebo. They used similar tests to measure the patients' signs and symptoms, this time under natural conditions…….Shire has not released complete data from OPUS-2…….Asked to comment, Anne Sumers, MD, a spokesperson for the American Academy of Ophthalmology, told Medscape Medical News that a head-to-head trial would be necessary to compare treatments accurately.

    "This study doesn't compare lifitegrast to other treatments, it compares it to a placebo, and it isn't clear that it is much better that the placebo," said Dr. Sumers.

  • Whoa.....I missed this release from Novartis, April 24. They have held a BIG stake in Roche stock for a long time. NVS is obvioulsy getting agressive and will probably be looking for acquisitions. They are selling their stake in Roche very soon. Proceeds expected to be around $13.8 BILLION. On top of the $5.3 billion they have....NVS will soon sit on $19.1 billion of cash.....Considering that there are NEGATIVE interest rates in much of Europe and Switzerland, sitting on it to LOSE money is not an option. Bocamp may be onto something. NVS very badly needs to build back their eye business (they paid $50 billion for Alcon). Question is???....would they want to get into dry eye space (I'm sure)....but does TB 4 entice? It can be had for a handful of hundred million. I would be pleased to sell out RGRX to NVS, pretty reasonably, as long as we then get issued a "Contingent Value Right" (a CVR, it will trade like a warrant)) for each share..which could collect, say, a 10% royalty on all potential future TB 4 sales...paid out like an REIT. NVS may be curious of the heart and neuro applications. Both are relatively advanced, trial wise. They are Phase 2 ready. All pre clinical and phase 1's are taken care of.

    "VIENNA (Reuters) APRIL 24 - Drugmaker Novartis aims to dispose of a 13.5 billion Swiss franc ($13.8 billion) stake in its local rival Roche and has already hired banks to support the selling process, a Swiss paper reported on Sunday. The world's biggest prescription drugmaker started building up the stake - worth 33 percent of Roche's voting shares - as a basis for a possible merger more than a decade ago, but the plan never materialized. Novartis plans to sell the stake in a so-called order book process, having banks collect purchase offers within a predefined price range from selected investors, weekly Sonntagszeitung said, citing board and banking sources."

  • As of Aprl 1, Novartis (NVS) rolled it's flagging Alcon eye divison into the main NVS pharmaceutical business. It's a sign they need to be more aggresive in turning it around. Here's a summary from it's figures a week or so ago:

    "Alcon is Novartis’s (NVS) eye care segment. It’s divided into two sub-segments including surgical and vision care. Since April 1, 2016, the ophthalmic pharmaceuticals portfolio was transferred to the pharmaceutical segment. The revenue in 1Q16 declined by ~7% at $1.43 billion. This included a decline of ~3% in sales and a -4% impact of foreign exchange. The decline in 1Q16 revenue was reported across all of Alcon’s sub-segments."

    NVS paid $50 billion for Alcon a handful of years ago.

    NVS is sitting on $5.3 billiojn of cash. Doing a deal, should they wish to, for world TB 4 eye, wouldn't be a problem of money.... but comes down to price, risk and efficacy. if our "zipper lipped" CEO would open up a bit more, maybe investors could gauge things better. Rodman is still silent.

  • snogreen by snogreen May 10, 2016 8:14 AM Flag

    Still no reserach note/update from Rodman analyst. Odd, since no long before results, he put out a reiteration of his earlier "buy" recommendation. I wonder if he is having trouble getting thru to our "zipper lipped" CEO?

    "What we have here is a failure to communicate".

  • Impressive that G Tree was unchanged in trading. Closed 19,100.about 140,000 volume. A testament to Korean investors.....because with mudied data (yet again)...well, maybe it isn't "muddy"...BUT JUST BADLY EXPLAINED TO INVESTORS (hint, hint finkel boob).......the Korean investors basically shrugged it off......and kept the valuation of G Tree and TB 4 program all but unchanged from before the news. I think G Tree sports a market value of between $250 and $300 million??? So, to hold that valuation - in the face of "Muddy Waters" is very impressive. RGRX was not in the same boat....or, really not in the same league....we are pinned to the $50 to 60 million valuation - G Tree has been 500% to 600% greater.. The market makers have for yars pot believed RGRX....for years have pressed down..for years have shorted. But hey, they were right for aa decade and I was wrong. Where we are at now is my exact break even.......Oh well, at least I too am "unch"..for now.

  • Reply to

    Is that NOL, or LOL

    by snogreen May 9, 2016 1:41 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 9, 2016 5:44 PM Flag

    Yup......all these acronyms confuse me. The NOL is not an LOL, because I can't grasp the lack PE because there no ROIC.....and that really screws up the ROE. So I LOL at the GMO orders (get me out)...but then I looked at the NOL and then I couldn't figure BOOK......

    Warden putting Paul Newman in the "box"...
    "What we have here is a FAILURE to communicate"

    I need my TRUMP wig..Finkel..... "Y-F"....then I might put in my "MO's" (market orders) BUY:)

  • HAh. Bo observed all day that NITE was bidding and took 200k shares about. But for 340,000 traded, our short trades are ALWAYS much was 47k. Small. So let's hope that NITE did not get what they want in an RGRX trial collapse and have a boatload to cover!

13.82+0.02(+0.14%)Jul 1 4:02 PMEDT