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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 290 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • this is good news....'drplano" seems to have contacted RGRX:

    "SNO, I had a reply from Mr. Finkelstein that news from China are expected within this Q To the best of his knowledge and a news release will be put once that starts."

    I said I hoped within 60-90 days. But it may be sooner. Lee's got preliminary Chinese gov't okay for trial back in JUNE 2014. Those that play down the China trial importance are wrong. It is the first and soonest one that will show results in dry eye using what we learned in the first Ora trial. if they design around that, and where there were problems..then chance of sucess increases. Further, pollutuion alone might give TB 4 a leg up over placebo. Placebo water drops won't do much. So once Lee's announces they are SIGNING PATIENTS... the clock ticks for the shorts like NITE. It won't be a huge trial...patients plentiful in China to get... Lee's is organized. results by end of year? So for all those that keep harping on the two Ora trials coming..if we are LUCKY you won't see any results on those... tll to late Spring... or mid 2016. Focus on CHINA now. A statistical & successful trial by Lee's.....hugely increases our 'win" odds with the Ora trials. ora wants that China data, I am sure.

    Tick Tock shorts! there's also a surprising amount of dry powder amoung posters here.. I'm not sure how much MM's will get by staying on the bid side. Market down 265 and RGRX isn't moving down at all.

  • Reply to

    family trust down $165 million.

    by snogreen Apr 17, 2015 10:10 AM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 17, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    Even crazier...Monday...5 days ago.SEB trading at $3,885. friday it trades $3,505..down 380 points....or 10%..for what? 380 points times 907,000 owned by family a loss of $345,000,000.00

    Thats just nuts. But thos prints to $4,600 were nuts too. Too thin. Too volatile. SEB is better of taken private for teh family, or sold to someone liek Buffet who will let the family still run it.

  • SEB is down OVER $1,000 a share from the high 9silly) print now. teh family is down 4165 million just TODAY alone. Insane. if Bresky would not consider selling to someone liek Buffet, then he is crazy not to consider just taking SEB private and be done with trader insanity and all SEC headaches. Bresky controls over 77% of SEB. All he has to do is buy 260,000 more shares and he takes it private. he coudl do it in a heartbeat.....easy and cheap financing is tere...because SEB has NO long term debt and sits on $525 million of cash and is earning no money really. if I were him and I didn't want to sellout at a premium to someone like Buffet.....I'd bid for the 260,000 shares and take it private. least that way they control it from these idiot trader sellers..and the net income of SEB was about $300 million last year and that coudl be distributed to family, after CAPEX stuff. Don't know why Bresky hasn't done it. I would.

  • Crazy. As I've said, the seller here is an idiot. And teh short is turbo charging downward on small prints every time the dopr advertises more for sale. But the Bresky family must be wondering. On just today, the value of teh family trust is losing $165,000,000.0...that is a big number. teh seller is not clean yer. we've traded about 250 shares only. On the bell yesterday he advertised he had 456 shares to sell...so we got a couple hundred more at least. At some point there is 5,000 short, and they will buy some. Also possible that SEB may buy back shares too. SEB still has $50 million authorized for share buy backs. the softness in pork prices does not justify this much of a decline. the collapse in oil makes up for a lot of it - making Seaboard MArine profitable now. It LOST $25 million last year!. And Cuba maybe opening ? Crazy.

    i'll wait till end of day to see if I bid some. more is for sale I'm sure. what a whack down!

  • Reply to

    interesting turnaround for NITE

    by thebasiles777 Apr 17, 2015 7:59 AM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 17, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    Yeah, NITE has to be short a good amount still....for a long time they were the ones holding and shorting when RGRX was in the teens cents - for a long time!. they are in a small pickle. They had better cover soon. My guess is that once Lee's announces the China dry eye trial is signing patients, the clock starts ticking. China will be the first up of the dry eye results, and a successful trial there wil give comfort that the US Dry eye will do as well. Lee's has stated last year that they expected to start by tehe end of the 1st Q 2015. That has passed. I am hoping they say they are starting it within 60-90 days. Buyer will be around gambling on Lee's outcome then. It won't be a huge number of pts for a phase 2, and we hope it goes quickly. MAybe result by end of year. And if Lee's trial works, many more will buy RGRX then. $32 million market cap, with a hoped for successful Lee's and US starting.RGRX is too cheap. But we need China to start ASAP. Ora will want their data too.

  • snogreen by snogreen Apr 16, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    FYI...the shorts have been on SEB, once they saw this idiot seller. Seller adverrtises he has stock to sell.shorts love it...they sell 2 shares down $75.and the seller follows them down.... Today on NASDAQ, 144 shares traded. of that 142 shares, 92 shares were SHORTED. So that is about 65% of all nasdaq SEB volume was short side. The majority of SEB volume usually is third markets..very little trades on the NYSE listing. and the MM on NYSe rarely shorts SEB. he just sets the opening price auction and closing. Seller advertised he is still here at 3;59...offered 456 shares. As long as the dope keeps doing that.we go down and shorts short 5,000 just have to put up a ONE SHARE TRADE down $50. One share downtick $50...adds a value of $250,000.00 to their short position. Imagine that. ONE share short..tick down $50..gives you a QUARTER MILLION $$$ DOLLAR mark.

    until someone steps up to take the fund seller, short is having a field day.

  • Reply to

    Breaking below the 200 day moving average

    by copywrites Apr 16, 2015 10:57 AM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 16, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    No, FINRA SHO is just updated daily for shorted shares. Haven't checked today yet. Short is all over this now. he sees that we do have a sized seller over time. And the seller is dumb, dumb, dumb. he advertises to the world he has stock to sell. And if tehe EIGHTH LARGEST POSITION in SEB is SHORT.. and all the short has to do is put up ONE share prints down $50 each time..then the idiot seller follows down. Seller is not "clean" yet. The idiot advertised he had 450 shares to sell... on closing settle.DUHHH. You don't think we all saw that, for TOMORROW?? When you sell again??? Did not get taken. So the dope will probably do what he does again. we can nibble small....little risk...but no larger institutional or fund buyer will....becase they have traders smart enough to see that some idioytt sells 2 shares down $75 and then advertioses he has tons more to do similar!. Oh well...ride it out. My cost basis is still far lower

  • Reply to

    News/ China/Hey Bo

    by trotupinfront Apr 16, 2015 1:42 PM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 16, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    Uhhh..if Ora Inc is the God of eye clinical trials, then why did the FIRST Ora trial appear to be a failure to all of Wall Street? reason is simple. ora had significant input into the trial design.. there are four subsections of the cornea. RGRX and Ora settled on a trial design with the primary endpoint only in TWO subsections of the cornea. the trial (on paper) failed. did not meet primary endpoints.

    NOW, RGRX and Ora are going back with a phase 2/3 dry eye. By adding a phase 3 possibility in it, they better darned sure get the DESIGN RIGHT! And every scrap of evidence from ANY human clinical trial will aid them. Matters not whether they use CAE system or not. Trial data from China may be better, in a sense.it is real world massive pollution. And dry eye is such a serious problem in Beijing, that up to 20% of it's population suffers from it. SO YOU AND BO THINK THAT HUMAN DATA FROM CHINA DOES NOT MATTER? Wake up! RGRX CANNOT afford to have another USA dry eye trial FAIL! So whatever you can do to make sure it does not, DO IT. And that woudl to me include waiting on the final USA dry eye trial deaign until you see the results of the China dry eye. WHAT IF CHINA DRY EYE FAILS???? AND ORA IS USING A SIMILAR TRIAL DESIGN???? YOU NEED TIME TO CHANGE IT, RIGHT???? China hopefully is done before end of 2014, so it won't delay USA dry eye that much. Ora can proceed with the EYE NK trial whenever they can. I hope by end of year. That is an APPROVAL trial and it has FDA Orphan Status..so in a sense, it is a more important trial and woudl lead to teh FASTEST drug approval from FDA if results warrant..

    China dry eye was supposed to start by "end of first quarter 2014".....let's hope it is in 2nd Q and soon. That will be the first big trial news, and Ora Inc will be all over the data hopefully.

  • Reply to

    Breaking below the 200 day moving average

    by copywrites Apr 16, 2015 10:57 AM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 16, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Don't kid yourself on the shorts here! It is almost 5,000..more has been shorted last few weeks. I check FINRA daily. The 2 largest instutional holders don't sell. DFA and FIDO. FIDO owns about 6% of SEB. they BOUGHT about 4,000 in Q4. So if you take out Bresky 77%, FIDO 6% and DFA...that means the float in SEB os less than 150,000 shares.

    Now, if there are 5,000 shares short? THAT is BIG, when you consider SEB often only trades a few hundred shares a day. Another perspective? A 5,000 share LONG position woudl rank as the 8th LARGEST institutional stockholder. So the way I look at it is this...the 5,000 shares SHORT would equal to the 8th largest OWNER of SEB!

    As soon as this seller dries up, hope soon...the short will not be able to use his one-share-downtick-gasoline-print-down #$%$. if the seller dries up (which he will)...the short has no way to buy really. And I do NOT think the Q1 numbers will be as bad as this seller fears. yes, prok is low, but so is corn.and oil collapse is a cash cow to Seaboard Marine! And the LOWEST oil prices came in Q1. I hope SEB hedged out a ways.

  • Reply to

    Breaking below the 200 day moving average

    by copywrites Apr 16, 2015 10:57 AM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 16, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    shorts are VERY active here too. for a bunch of months SEB was straight up, to the low $4,000's.even to a print above $4,600. there is now about 5,000 short...they short more each day..sometimes 30 or 40 shares. But what they do is use 1 share prints to whack it down. they can do this because they also easily see a fund is selling, and they are "selling stupid".they advertise to teh world they see.

    I think the fund(s) that is selling is worried about the Q1 numbers, due out in a couple weeks. That is why the rush. pork prices were very low in Q1, so they think that SEB will get hurt with a bad earnings quarter. But the dopes aren't seeing the whole picture! CORN PRICES Are down! So low corn mitigates somewhat low pork. ALSO...the collapse in oil is going to ZOOM UP the profit in Seaboard Marine . NO ONE IS LOOKING AT THAT! The Marine division was losing $20 MILLION a year. All cuz' of high oil. Now oil is 50% LESS, and SEaboard Marine could swing from a $20 million LOSS..to a $40 to $50 million positive EBIDTA! This will MORE than make up the soft pork prices. Corn is STILL low!

    Mid 3,600's a good place to buy. I think Q1 will be okay..soft pork but GREAT Marine numbers. SEB has 32 ocean going ships and each go 28 FEET on ONE gallon of fuel. KNOW HOW much 32 ocean going ships use?? Massive, And Obama opening up CUBA relations? OMG! if that is finalized, ALL OF WALL STREET WILL LOOK FOR A CUBA PLAY! SEB is the purest of the pure played. They have the largest port facility in Miami and have spent tens of millions last few years upgrading it!. Havana is 80 miles away! SEB will mint money if Cuba opens. the fund(s) that now sell are stupid!

  • I saw those prints to mid 32 cent level.and then the mm started to offer in the high 33 cents level. So I said, fine. Instaed of 0.339....how about I take 15,000 at an even 0.34. My bid shoudl be there he rst of teh day..they only sold me a few thousand at .34. This is first I've bought in a good long while. I disagree w/ bo.....The Chinese Gov't approved the China trial in JUNE 2014...it shoudl start sometime this quarter. I think RGRX rises on China.....because teh pollution is so bad over there, placebo won't do much which gives TB 4 a chance to stand out. And if TB 4 wins in a LEGITIMATE China trial done by a well respected Lee's Pharma....analysts and investors will have toi handicap that success into much better odds that the Ora trial will work. So RGRX at 431 million market cap? Good gamble. better than it was when RGEX was at 8 cents....because the trials are set uop and funded and Ora is doing a phase 2/3 and a phase 3.

  • Reply to

    no timeline.

    by snogreen Apr 16, 2015 12:01 PM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 16, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    You don't get it, bo....The Koreans said they are not starting their Korea trial till late second half. Teh Korea dudes do not have teh credibility that Le's has. lee's has a long track recorsd of success already. G tree used to do TV production, computer stuff.and now you say they are biotech genius? They may be good, yes....but what we need to make sure that the next ORA trial dry eye has BEST chance of success.is as much human trial data as possible. FOR INSTANCE? Four subsections of cornea. RGRX chose 2. They did not meet statistical. BUT OTHER two subsections did, but they were not endpoint. WOULDN'T IT BE NICE if the China trial expanded on those subsections where the first ORA trial saw good? WE CANNOT AFFORD another screw up in RGRX trial design! that is RGRX HISTORY, screwed up design. Korean trial (in korea) is not going till late 2015. China is almost ready to go we hope. if China works, investors will have confidence in US dry eye. RGRX stock rises! if China works, they can incorporate that design INTO US TRIAL! I don't see how you can disagree. results of China trial will be the FIRST we get!

  • snogreen by snogreen Apr 16, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    We all sort of figured Ora would be doing the stuff. but nice to know it is signed now. There was no TRIAL timeline given in PR. A lot of paperwork and FDA stuff to do.. I think it is possible that they start the eye NK before end of year, but certainly by Q1 2016. I think the dry eye trial will surely be into 2016. Why? if I was Ora/G tree & RGRX , I woudl want to see results and data from the CHINA trial...more human data the better. That way they stand the best chance of approvals by getting the US dry eye designed from where China trial showed best efficacy. That is where RGRX screwed up in first Ora trial. too many small subsets used as primary endpoint. we lost. IMO? The CHINA trial is critical to get going ASAP. I hope within 60-90 days. I really think it would be wise for RGRX and ORA to wait to get the China data, and use all that to design the US trial with the BEST chance of success.

  • The Bresky Trust(s) own 77% of SEB. That is 907,000 shares. On just today with SEB down 490, teh Trust is down about $84 million.in ONE day. from the high print of $4,640 9an dthat was a silly print, don't know why)...the Bresky Trust down from that high print..to today......$907,000,000.00.....that's insane. A Trust idssupoosed to be a TRUST for the owners....and family members.....but for it's shares to lose $85 million a day? of drop $907 MILLION in a handful of weeks? It is crazy. the whole extended families egges are in one basket that moves $85 million ..or almost down $1 BILLION.from high trades. Time to move on. Diversify the Trust for all family. Sell to someone liek Buffet for a fair price..then continmue to run SEB as you always have. And you coudl do that TAX EFFICIENTLY! So Bresky family diversifies with NO capital gains tax! HOW? Come up with a fair price for SEB. Call it $6 billion. Say Buffet buys it for that. All Buffett has to do is buy about 4 million shares of Berkshire B stocl slowly over a month. It trades close to 1.5 to 2 million shares a day. Buffet uses his CASH to buy BRK,B shares, then uses those same 4 million BRK.B shares to do a buyout of SEB, for a STOCK SWAP! Buffett gets a great SEB company. he uses his stock, but does not dilute as he bought them open market. Bresky gets to diversify the Family Trusts. Bresky gets to still run SEB. Bresky's become instant billionaires. Bresky family pays NO TAX ON SELLING SEB.because they exchange for BRK.B shares..which they can thus divide around. The only time you pay a tax if is you sell those BRK.B shares. everyone wins. no immediate cap gaimns tax to family. BIDG prices for sold SEB...Diversification, still family run.and billionaires.

  • Reply to

    Breaking below the 200 day moving average

    by copywrites Apr 16, 2015 10:57 AM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 16, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    Quite the smack.We've got some instition cuttng back, and they seem to have been in a 2 wek rush. I track teh trades also, and teh shorts have ben active here. They are doing one share prints, whacking it. A game of heors last couple weeks is that instantly, if there is an uptick trade, within seconds they sell one share. All it looks like is downticks. And teh seller is advertising he always has share sto see. That is kind of dumb to advertise you have lots of stock to sell, in one liek SEB..because the MM dissappears as do buyers.

    SEB is cheap here. Value is about $4.2 billion. Subtract that SEB has NO long term debt and $525 million cash....SEB net of cash value is only $3.7 billion. The PORK divison alone is worth $3.7 billion.rest of SEB is free. I think Pork divison coudl do $330 million EBIDTA. Tyson paid 16 times EBIDTA for Hillshire. 16 times 330 million is $5.28 BILLION at 16 times pork EBIDTA.

    SEB at net of cash valuation of 3.7 billion is way undervalued..but you can't stop an anxious seller or a short. About 5,00 shares is short SEB...and increasing.

  • snogreen by snogreen Apr 15, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    Apology to Mr. Bresky for snooping to his father's obituary.which was actually a fascinating read..he was a WW2 vet and went into the family flour mill business after the war. H. Harry Bresky died a few years ago, he was just 81. Anyways, here is the family that is part of the trust:

    "In addition to his son and daughter-in-law Ellen Bresky of Mission Hills, Kas., Mr. Bresky is survived by his wife, Helen (Suzy) Arvey Bresky; a daughter, Patty Bresky and her husband David Noonan of Mill Valley, Calif.; a brother, Otto Bresky, and his wife Mary Lou of Naples, Fla.; and six grandchildren. "

    So Steven Bresky (our CEO) has a sister in Calif (not with SEB). Steven lives in Boston area now. HArry Bresky 9Stevens dad) also had a brother, Otto Bresky, Jr. So Otto Bresky Jr. and his whole extending family may also be on the Trust. How many kids he had?? Grandkids??

    then it says that Harry Bresky also has 6 grandchildren..so they are the six kids of Steven and his sister Patty.....I assume the 6 grandkids include somehow to the Trust....via the % share that Steven and Patty have we do not know what otto Bresky has (he is stevens uncle) in terms of his family and Trust %.

    But all this is 95 years almost..three long SEB generations. If Steven Bresky has children (seems he does) they would be in their mid to perhaps late 20's now. And some may be daughters who don't wish yto be in messy bloody pork business (like Stevens sister) or if he has sons, maybe they are ripe age mid 20's for Business School.

    Harry Bresky died at 81....sort of young. Steven is 62. Enjoy life. If they did the Bresky holdings would be worth between $5.7 and $6 BILLION! And if they sell to Buffet, they can run SEB as they wish, just as they have for 95 years.and if Steven Breslky has kids as smart as he, Buffet would welcome them into SEB.

  • Reply to

    Bresky & the Trust ownership

    by snogreen Apr 15, 2015 1:14 PM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 15, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    I do not see any other Bresky family in exec ranks. I don't know if any young ones are way below.

    My sense of Bresky is he is a builder, not a buyer of companies. I don't think he'd pay what SAFM wants, nor woudl he get into a bidding war. I don't think he wants more sugar.....volatile. He is expanding organically his shipping fleet. he just added Brooklyn and Phila as stops..plus they added some othetr countries in S.A......and Cuba will open up at some point. SEB a BIG winner on that.

    Answer for Bresky is tio sell to warren Buffet. Breaks get's good price & liquidity. Then Buffet let's Bresky run.... it just as they have for 90 years.

    I vote Buffet!

  • I wonder a lot of what Bresky has planned. The family has done a great job over the years. but at some point, I don't see where they don't have the choice but to sell. they've taken it darned far. The isue is that Steven Bresky is the third generation in SEB....and they stay LONG. the three generations had controlled SEB for over 90 years now. It is now a multi billion company. but the issue is that they own 77% of SEB. with THREE generations...sons, daughters, kids, grand kids...great grand kids.etc....the family stretches out. And it is the family Trust(s) that own 77% of SEb. But the stock produces NO dividends (or small when paid one)......and there is no liquidity for the people in the trust. the only way to get income is dividends.which SEB is not paying currently........or to sell out. Right now THREE generations of extended Bresky family members have ALL their eggs in ONE $5 billion risk basket. And they can't touch a cent. At some point extended family may need money....or Bresky coudl awaken that the trust really has to be diversified. A $5 billion trust with a SINGLE non income producing asset.

    I think the time is right. Hillshire and Smithfield sold for 16 to 17 times EBIDTA. At that level, SEB shares are worth between $6,500 and $7,500. SEB is $3,750 now. SEB coudl alnost DOUBLE in price if it is ever sold. Bresky is 61 or 62 now...it may be time for the Bresky family to become multi billionaires and enjoy and spread teh wealth on down all teh genereations in the Trust(s).....I'd pick up the phone and call Warren Buffet. SEB is his kind of stock. And I am pretty sure that the long term chart of SEB, beats Berkshire Hathaway! Bresky beats Buffet!

  • The USPO examiner thinks that someone else 'anticipated" using TB 4 in dry eye. When it really is not teh case. The case that the examiner refres to is 'Strausser". This goes back to a 1981 application, so USPO claims Strausser 'anticipates" it ahead of RGRX. This application was 1981, which waas 34 YEARS AGO. Furthermore, here is the Strausser application. It is for Thymsion FRACTION 5!......not TB 4, and the filing is for HYPERTENSTION AND SIABETES!

    Read youirself teh facts and read the 1981 Strausser:

    Use of thymosin as an anti-diabetes and anti-hypertensive disease agent
    US 4444757 A
    ABSTRACT
    Methods are provided for the use of Thymus gland extracts, such as Thymosin, fraction 5, as an anti-autoimmune disease agent, useful in treating autoimmune diseases such as hypertension, lupus and diabetes. Thymosin, fraction 5, administration stimulated the development of a specific subclass of Thymus derived cells called Thymus suppressor cells which reduced the autoimmune state, thereby reducing hypertension, lupus, diabetes, and other autoimmune diseases."

    Strausser NEVER MENTIONED DRY EYE. It was only way in teh back it mentioned that sjogrens is also autoimmune disease.

    RGRX will hget thru this. THYMOSIN FRACTION 5 is NOt Thymsin Beta 4! Strausser ius not specific. RGRX is.

  • Reply to

    DRY EYE PATENT

    by hollisddd Apr 15, 2015 11:44 AM
    snogreen snogreen Apr 15, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    CAn you give us specifics in the 20 page document that RGRX filked with the examiner? HAve you read it? Also, if teh USPO is so stacked against RGRX and TB 4 in eyes.....can you explain WHY the EXACT same examiner reviewing the TB 4 application for TB 4 in GLAUCOMA..granted that Glacoma patent.

    The hold up on dry eye is minutiae..which RGRX lawyers adress in teh 20 pages. One was fighting back teh examiner on wrong conclusion regarding teh PH level of teh eye solution. the other was the number of times doesed per day. One other area was that some OTHER kind of thymosin patent was applied for with Sjogrens Syndrome. So the examiner claims priority to that. But teh truth is that it was not a Thymosin beta 4 applied for Sjogrens.there are many tyopes of thymosins...like Alpha 1 and Beta 10.. But RGRX is not applying for SJOGRENS SYNDROME. That disease has all kinds of things that happen because it is a body wide auto immune disease....and just one small area of sjogrens is that sometimes it effects dry eye. buyt there is a HOST of other bad things beyons that. RGRX is not filing sjogrens. RGRX is specific dry eye, and doing it with TB 4...not TA 1 of TB 10.

    I think eventually RGRX wears down teh examiner. Almost EVERY PATENT RGRX has refceived went thru very similar fights and appeals....with tweeking and perseverance, RGRX came out on top. RGRX will keep apealing I bet.

OB
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