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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 184 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
  • Reply to

    Seaboard owns the world.

    by hichienlee Dec 18, 2014 10:51 PM

    I do not think that Bresky will ever be able to take SEB private. He could try, yes....but I don't think it woudl work. You are correct that Bresky controls 77% of SEB stock. But if he tries to take private, others will bid, and bid well above him. That makes for lawsuits and court fights....PPC could easily outbid any bid by Bresky. they have more money. Bresky taking SEB private makes zero logical sense. Because Bresky is left with a "stand alone" pork division.......But he cannot then compete with the likes of Tyson, JBS and PPC. SEB pork is big, but they are bigger. And they control all the beef, pork and chicken. SEB woudl control nothiing, and no hopes of ever doing do against Tyson, JBS and PPC. However, SEB's pork divison is a magnificent fit to PPC chicken assets, which PPC has none yet. And as a bonus PPC also get's SEB's 50% stake in Butterball Turkey. JBS is the largest beef processor. And JBS owns 70% of PPC. PPC then would be huge chicken, pork and TURKEY. At that point, PPC, JBS and SEB combined would rival Tyson in strength...even more so, on a worldwode basis. And Tyson would have NO turkey. Butterball is no#1. In my mind? Bresky has no choice but to sell out. And time is right now. Low feed costs, good pork prices, good profits last couple years. Him taking it private makes no sense. he'd get sued. PPC would offer more. And if Bresky wins, he is left with a single stand alone pork company that will face very big competitive Tyson, PPC and JBS headwinds..and their huge eficiencies of scale, marketing and distribution.

  • Reply to

    Chinese Clinical Trial Registry

    by snogreen 23 hours ago
    snogreen snogreen 20 hours ago Flag

    I'd settle for the truth from RGRX.....and information about the trial design Lee's intends. It appears the Chinese trial registry has no information about any TB 4 trial in dry eye. what's up with that?

  • Reply to

    Chinese Clinical Trial Registry

    by snogreen 23 hours ago
    snogreen snogreen 23 hours ago Flag

    I searched the trial database for any trial using the word 'dry eye".....there are none.

    RGRX and Lee's told us in mid June that the Chnese had approved the trial registration. But it appears there is no such trial registered. We need more info from RGRX, which we'll not get. How typical.

  • I found the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry. I searched Thymosin......there is no trial registered or approved by China for Thymosin Beta 4. They did, however, list three trials for Thymosin alpha 1..going back a few years. There was no trial listed for lee's....and no trial registerd for TB 4. Link is

    chictr (dot) org

  • Reply to

    only a few trading days left this year

    by thebasiles777 Dec 26, 2014 8:58 AM
    snogreen snogreen 23 hours ago Flag

    forget 12 cents or 13 cents. Who cares. Focus on January, when tax selling has gone away. Lee's got approved for the China phase 2 in mid JUNE. We need that trial to start ASAP.. But I still wish that RGRX woudl release what the trial protocol is..........is it a dose ranging trial? And what are the primary endpoints? And WHERE is the trial being done? In hong Kong or mainland china? i'd rather in mainland china, like Beijing, where the pollution is so horrendous and eye irritating, that the chances of a water based placebo having effect is lessened. Which gives TB 4 a better chance.

    RGRX is not telling investors anything. And I cannot find a way to get any China trial database information......like we can do here in USA.

  • Reply to

    only a few trading days left this year

    by thebasiles777 Dec 26, 2014 8:58 AM
    snogreen snogreen 23 hours ago Flag

    I don't bet you'll see 11 cents. I think tax selling (of any size at least) is ptryy much done tere has ben no shorting by MM's. they stay bid side for now. I don't give this Korean outfit much creedence. They flit back and forth of being a compuer company, to software company to a biotech company. regardless of what they show in trial, no big pharma will give them much respect. The important trial is Lees They have credibility ansd believeable trials. they have a track record. I think almost all rides on the Lee's trial outcome. RGRX needs a solid trial win by Lee's, to use that evidence to convince someone to take the already approved PHASE 3 in USA for Eye NK orphan. RGRX won't get any money or partner, until they see what Lee's shows.

  • Reply to

    Something is happening, PPC

    by snogreen Dec 19, 2014 6:53 AM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 26, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    shorts are still in trouble, imo. Sure chicken prices may soften more. But what you ignore is while chicken prices may come down, GRAIN prices are down further. A couple years ago corn as $7.00 a bushel. Now corn is 44.10. So any softness coming in chicken prices will be made up in margin by lower feed costs. A month or so ago, corn was $3.50 a buskhel. It is possible that PPC went out and bought futures to hedge in those low prices? we'll see. PPC is now a DEBT FREE $8 to $9 billion company. And I bet there is over 35 million short now. The Brazilian owners are good operators and know how to make money. You wait and see. My bet is that PPC does a very big M&A deal by end of January and the Street's reaction will be positive. If 75% of PPC float is SHORT, what do they do? We'll see.

  • Reply to

    SEC

    by crippstonite Dec 17, 2014 12:44 PM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 23, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    A couple years ago, pork was about 78 cents....so current price is near that. BUT! Look at the futures for 2015 June, July and August........pork is trading at 87, 88 and 89 cents.

    Furtther, even if pork is back to 80 cent area right now (and higher this summer), CORN prices 18-24 months ago were OVER $7.00 a bushel. Right now corn is at 4.13 a bushel. So even with hogs at 80 cent.......CORN feed price is down to $4.13............that is about $3.00 LESS feed cost per bushel..and SEB pigs eat a lot of corn. Corn feed costs are DOWN almost 40%. SEB will make at ton of money at 80 cents hogs..because of feed costs. Also? FYI? SEB is long corn fures from lower than $4.13.

  • Reply to

    SEC

    by crippstonite Dec 17, 2014 12:44 PM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 23, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    If you don't think things are that rosy? wrong. Look back 1-2 years and see where th epork prices were THEN.;llower than 80 cents. Further, look at grain prices 1-2 years ago. what are they LOWer than where they were. Yes, pork is down to 80 cents area, but that is still higher than 1.5 years ago. And grain prices far less. You are comparing 80 cent now to the bubble price earlier this year on the pig virus. Bad comparison. Furthermore, SEB retired ALL it's debt.........and sits on aboutr $435 million of cash. SEB is a very tasty morsel for an acquisition.

  • Reply to

    BIG

    by alejandrovetrini Dec 22, 2014 6:27 PM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 23, 2014 6:13 AM Flag

    Correct. People are missing that 84% of JBS revenues are in US Dollars. And much of that is in beef sales which are stiill high. But then the Brazil currenecy is way DOWN because the oil collapse................so when JBS has 84% of ALL it;s sales in US Dollars, and the US dollar is STRONG......when they convert into Brazilian Reals.......JBS is a lot more in Reals. when JBS reports profits they will soar. Also? All the products JBS makes in Brazil become much cheaper and easier to export.......because when the Real goes way down, all JBS produsct become cheaper to sell overseas customers......and JBS's Brazil sales go UP.....as will profits.

    What killed JBS yesterday was the allegatiion of a few hundred thousand dollars in a shell compant that a news paper said was part of a bribe. JBS came out and denbed it. I don't know the truth, but I do know that Brazil is filled with corruption.so it is commonplace and probably a cost of doing business. It will all blow over. The paper reported it was only a few hundred thousand dollars..........but JBS is a massive multi billion worldwide company.. Good buy down here if you have long term horizon.

  • Reply to

    Something is happening, PPC

    by snogreen Dec 19, 2014 6:53 AM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 23, 2014 5:58 AM Flag

    You better be careful on this "group think short" narrative. I bet by the time the SEC reports latest short figures, about 70% of the float in PPC is short....perhaps well over 35,000,000 shares. That is a VERY dangerous trade. Everyone already knows that chicken prices are high and will soften to the downside eventully. everyone knows a couple big facilities are opening in Texas. everyone knows this. But what I see is that PPC is valued at 11 times earnings. And right now PPC has NO debt, and PPC is smart to not pay a dividend. So you see, even if Chicken prices soften.........PPC is in incredible financial shape. It's PE is only 11.....whicjh means an 11 PE is factoring in softening prices. PPC is wise to KEEP all it's profits, and pay NO dividend. This gives flexibility to do bigger things.

    I have a scenario. I think PPC is going to do a big deal. PPC wants PORK to diversify from chicken. That will screw shorts. PPC bid on Smithfield and Hillshire and lost. My guess now it's SEB (for it's pork & turkey). PPC will thus diversify with SEB as it's third largest PORK processor...and they own 50% of Butterball turkey. Combine them all intop PPC and you will have a worldwide powerhouse (controlled by JBS beef) of Chicken, pork and Turkey. And while Chicken may soften others remain firmer. and with this, PPC becomes a more desireable wexport supplier...they can do pork and chicken together in greater volume and efficiencies. then you will find that with increased EXPORTS, the oversupply in USA the shorts bet ion. doesn't happen that way... to drag down an 11 PE stock PPC??, never happens. Quite the reverse. the M&A PPC does diversifies and stabilizes revenues. Then? 70% float is SHORT? You are dead meat. Pun intended. All the shorts know is already priced in. Prices will soften and Texas plants will open. so what.

  • snogreen by snogreen Dec 21, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    I read that there waere some stick indexes that did a rebalancing......effective Monday dec 22..which means any buy/sells have to be done Fri.......usually tg=hese index rebalances have all the action in the last 60 seconds of trade. Just like Y did.

    I had a stock on the other end of the spectrum.......on the bell, it dropped 6%..so it was reduced in index allocation.....I see Alleghany was UP 6% on teh close bell..so it was probably added % to an index.

    This is my guess. But who knows.

  • Reply to

    maybe a help

    by thebasiles777 Dec 19, 2014 9:14 AM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 19, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    One more thing? I predict that there will be no rash of news in new year. I do not believe RGRX will show us the Le's trial design for dry eye, nor do I think RGRX will tell us WHERE the trial is done. If it NOT done in hong Kong and in some very polluted mainland china city....THAt is a REAL bonus. Almost make me want to buy stock before trial. but Finkel Dope is too stupid to "get it"..what investos need to know about Lee's trial.he will shut up.

  • Reply to

    maybe a help

    by thebasiles777 Dec 19, 2014 9:14 AM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 19, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    The dry eye patent stuff means very little right now. wake up. Don't listen to donker dope. Lee's is in China, not USA. we don't know what patents have been granted in far east, but I doubt Lee's woudl proceed dry eye there without some IP protection.

    second, as long as RGRX is first to file an indication (dry eye) they have a placeholder over anyone else...., so they can reply to non final rejection issues to USPO.

    Third, matters not anyways. RGRX is NOT DOING a dry eye trial in USA! what RGRX has approval for, from the FDA, is to proceed with a Phase 3 Eye NK Orphan trial! So a dry eye patent is a non event for now.....because eye NK is an Orphan indication.and no matter what happens, patentt or not..RGRX get';s automatic 7 year exclusivity if ever approved.

  • Reply to

    Seaboard owns the world.

    by hichienlee Dec 18, 2014 10:51 PM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 19, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    I doubt SEB would want to sell pork divison to Hormel. remember that PPC bid on BOTH..Smithfield and Hillshire. What to both of those companies make/ PORK AND HAM! PPC is chicken, big. The parent company of PPC is JBS, and they are the largest BEEF processor in the world. So what is PPC missing to create a powerhouse of distribution? PORK! And as a bonus, SEB also owns 50% (they can take to 55%) of Butterball turkey! So if PPC takes SEB..........the combined powerhouse of JBS Beef, PPC chicken...and SEB's PORk and TURKEY.....is a commination that woudl be unmatched. Makes no sense for SEB to sell pork to Hormel.. PPC woudl outbid them anyways.

  • Reply to

    maybe a help

    by thebasiles777 Dec 19, 2014 9:14 AM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 19, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Opps, typo. China wil still want a phase 3 if phase 2 good. However, if phase 2 shows efficacy, China may cut red tape to get phase 3 done faster. Again, the crucial thing is WHERE is trial being done? if it is in Beijing and they used teh corneal subsections as endopints where ORA Inc got great statistcal efficacy, then with that and such massive eye hurting pollytion....I think the trial will work! But RGRX is as always, silent. They have no ideas what investors really need to see.

  • Reply to

    maybe a help

    by thebasiles777 Dec 19, 2014 9:14 AM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 19, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    China will still want a Phase 2 and a Phase 2. The phase 2 will probably be less than 100pts. Also? the Phase 2 may be a dose ranging and safety trial. Which means a low dose, medium and higher. So statistical may be skewed if the lowest does does little. There are two important things we don't know and I doubt RGRX tells us. First, is Lee's incorporating into the trial the subsections of cornea where ORA Inc saw great statistical efficacy? we have NO IDEA of the actual trial design. Thanks RGRX. Second? WHERE is the trial being done? In Hong Kong, being on teh water and very little industrial polltion? Or is it being done on mainland China, like Beijing? Beijing is covered with massive industrial polltion, thus a lot of eye problems. So I woudl doubt that a water drop placebo in Beijing for Phase 2 woudl show much efficacy. But any amount of TB 4 stands a far better chance of showing something with such massive pollution. But as usual, RGRX is not saying a word. WHERE is trial? And WHAT is trial design? Any rational investor needs to know - right Finkel Tinkel? Or dioes Finkel want RGRX at 13 cents forever? pitiful lack of crucial info... we deserve.

  • Reply to

    Seaboard owns the world.

    by hichienlee Dec 18, 2014 10:51 PM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 19, 2014 7:12 AM Flag

    I'm not sure SEB "owns the world"....In SEB's meat world, it is Tyson and JBS and Pilgrims Pride that "own that meat world".......And Tyson is the King of it in USA. But JBS and Pilgrims Pride are right behind. What Pilgrims Pride and JBS don't have is a huge Pork division. Not do they have TURKEY....SEB has huge Pork and they own 50% of Butterball turkey. I think that PPC and JBS have to buy SEB is they want to compete with Tyson. And SEB knows this, because as just a stand alone Pork company, they can't compete world wide with Tyson..OR... JBS and Pilgrims. SEB has taken it's Pork as far as it can go. I think that PPC is going to grab it. And then PPC will be as big as Tyson...even bigger if you add in JBS worldwide.

    So while I think SEB could get over $5,000 sometime soon........I think it will happen because of an M&A deal, not market gyrations. Look at YESTERDAY chart! Someone tried to take down SEB. They stragically sold about 40 shares, and got SEB down to $3,820......down $300 on the day! But it did NOT work, because I believe firmly, that the BIG buyer of SEB (it closed UP $320 from the low prints) is not retail or institutions (por SEB buying back stock)..the buyer of SEB stock so aggressively, is the company that wants to take it over. And I've always posted that and I think it is PPC. I just don't know when. I bet within a month. There are 6,300 shares short in SEB. They have been short that since $3,000....now $4,140. They are hurting BIG.... but it is only going to get MORE painful for them. if you read this post, Shorty, I think there is $1,500 more upsde pain, IF (a big if) PPC buys out SEB. We'll see. BTW? As of yesterday, PPC is debt free. As of a monmths ago, SEB was debt free. co-incidence? NOPE! All planned.

  • Something is brewing in PPC. I think they are close to an M&A deal. Yesterday, PPC pad off ALL it's debt, $500 million worth. That left PPC with $350 million cash. But PPC is also buying Tyson chicken ops in Mexico, for $400 million. PPC is debt free now. they will owe Tyson$400 million. So WHY hasn't PPC just done a bond deal while rates have plummetted to 40 year lows? Instead? I see the SEC filing this morning that PPC is extending it's bank line of credit (which is exactly $400 million) from Dec 28, 2014 to April 15, 2015. If PPC wasn't going to draw on it, they wouldn't extend it. My guess is the Tyson buy is delayed a bit because it still needs Mexican gov't approval....I think they'll get it okay, but just take a bit longer. But the KEY on all this is WHY is PPC now debt free, and WHY are they depending on an expensive to use, bank line of credit......when the bond rates are at incredible lows..and every other company in the world is selling debt ASAP to capture incredibly cheap financing. But PPC goes OPPOSITE. PPC is now debt free and using bank lines of credit. This is not normal. Which tells me PPC IS planning a big bond offering, but they are NOT doing it now, because they are probably waiting till their M&A deal is announced. In meantime, PPC is now, incredibly, debt free and using bank lines. There is a REASOn for all this.

  • Reply to

    SEC

    by crippstonite Dec 17, 2014 12:44 PM
    snogreen snogreen Dec 17, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    The move in SEB since Oct 1st has nothing to do with Cuba. You are correct, there has been a very big buyer. It is not retail folks like us.....no institution has reported large increases.actually institutions have been sellers. It is not SEB buying backj shares either. In teh second Q SEB bought back in a Dutch Tender 18,300 shares and SEB paid $2,950 a share (about $50 million)...soon after that, SEB collapsed from a large seller from $3,000 to a print of $2,480. when SEB gave it's 3rd Q report, I was SHOCKEd that SEB did not buy a single share on the drop down to $2,480, but they just paid $2,950. So all this leaves only ONE OTHER possibility. There are no other buyers possible to take SEB from $2,500 to $4,000.....and my bet is that buyer is some company that intends to buyout SEB..and it is perfectly legal for them to buy as much stock as they like, beforehand. Just that if they cross owning 5% of it, they must file within 10 business days to the SEC.. The buyer cared less about Cuba. they want all of SEB, imo!

OB
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